June 21, 2012

EURGBP trading idea

I think it is still need to wait for the perfect spot to take advantage of this bearish trend:

EURUSD trade idea - results

EURUSD trading idea

This is my lats trading idea, on EURUSD. It takes advantage of the current consolidation period. Try to sell near the 1.2750 resistance, where a stop order shall be placed. Then wait eurusd to break the uptrend channel, around 1.2630, and close position around 1.2511. See the file here.

June 14, 2012

FRANCOIS HOLLANDE FAIL

I read today that:

After the meeting with the government, the three potential Chancellor candidates of the SPD, Sigmar Gabriel, Peer Steinbrueck and Frank-Walter Steinmeier travelled to Paris to meet President Francois Hollande.

But just few weeks ago, the french president refused to meet with alexis tsipras, syriza's greek leader, with the excuse that he will not meet with candidates, but only with persons already in charge...

One man, two faces?

European Banking Union

A good summary on this idea here:

Netherlexit: Will Netherlands exit euro before Spain and Italy?

After several months of rumors about a possible Grexit, last days were rich in some comments regarding a possible foreseeable Spaxit, like this here reproduced: “Grexit may or may not increase the chance of Spaxit. But Spaxit almost certainly means Netherlexit, Fraxit, and even Gerxit. (Although hopefully those ‘words’ will never again see print)”. Sorry, I printed them again.

But, yesterday defeat of the Dutch by the Germans seems to indicate that Netherlands will be among the first countries to leave the euro, probably at same time than Greece. Meanwhile Portugal, Spain and Italy may succeed to the next stage. Obviously I’m talking of the euro, the European soccer championship.

If you want to read about my view of a possible orderly greek exit from the euro currency, please read it here.

You may also be interested in these posts:

Spanish bailout secrets

Italian debt dynamics

June 13, 2012

Spanish bailout secrets

Last weekend we received the news that Spain was ready to receive help from EU to recapitalize their banks.

Interestingly, very few details were unveiled at that time, and until now, no official has been able to present the exact conditions and architecture of these bailout plan. All that have been said is that Spain will receive up to 100 euro billions, that we be used by their bank bailout bund (FROB) to recapitalize banks. The sovereign will be responsible for the repayment of this credit to the EU, which is increasing pressure over the Spanish bonds yields, and increasing the risk that the country may be in its way to apply also for a rescue of the government. This was a bad move, as it was better to have the ESM/EFSF to recapitalize directly the banking sector, leaving the Spanish government without that surcharge. Maybe this alternative will be adopted when the final agreement is signed between Spain and EU.

So, why all the details of the program are still unknown? The main reason is that the final value of the program is still open, while the audit firms do their jobs evaluating the capital needs of the Spanish banking sector. But, my main guess is that EU doesn’t want to reveal the final conditions before the Greek elections that are due this weekend, on 17th of June.

I believe that Spain will be able to receive some softer conditions than the other members of the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, the acronym is finally complete… or will we have the PIIGS version?!) euro zone sub area. These conditions will quickly become demands from the others PIGS to renegotiate their own terms. As new Greek government will also seek better conditions after reelected, EU could not give up some negotiation margin away. In other words, if UE announced that Spain will pay a interest rate of 3%, Greece (and others) will instantly demand the same treatment. After elections, with the 3% already granted, new demands would emerge. Hiding Spain’s special conditions will give EU scope to have still those cards in the pocket to give them again to Greek as if they are really new Greek conquests.

So, I believe that all those news referring to very favorable conditions to the Spanish deal will be officially announced for all PIGS, after the final deal (if any) with Greeks is also known, hopefully at the European summit, on 28th and 29th of June. As a final remark, I saw in some news that spain will pay an interest rate of 3% while charging their banks a 8.5% interest rate. This will give some boost to Spain’s Fiscal Budget. This effect is even greater if Spain can have 3 years without interest payments as announced in the same media. With a cash accounting methodology, this will contribute to a reduction of the budget deficit in 80 bps. Similar benefits will be very welcome to Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

You may also be interested in these posts:

Netherlexit: Will Netherlands exit euro before Spaxit

Spanish bailout secrets

PLAN B: an orderly grexit

Italian debt dynamics

June 12, 2012

PLAN B: an orderly grexit

Next weekend we will see if eurozone will turn to be the largest poker table of the world. If Syriza wins the greek elections and gets enough support to form a govern, the poker game will start. As Alexis Tsipras Syriza’s leader said recently, both Greek and Germans have the nuclear button, but none of them shall push the button. Much has been said about the terrific consequences for both parts is a Grexit in fact materializes.

Here I will present a different approach. One may wonder way a currency union cannot breakup orderly? In fact, one of the main motivations from one country to leave is to be able to devaluate strongly its currency and be able to adjust its external balances, turning its economy more competitive. The disorderly way is, as usual, make things happen by surprise, overnight (or more frequently, over weekend). In this way, all the economic agents don’t have the chance to prevent themselves to the devaluation of the local currency. But in the case of the Eurozone this may not be the most appropriate solution, because economic agents from other fragile economies will sooner than latter start to prepare themselves for a similar scenario in their domestic economies and will create a chain of the events that will stop only with the complete breakup of the Eurozone.

So, this time ,the approach need to be different. How? Eurozone need to negotiate with Greece an orderly Grexit, in such a way that economic agents don’t get rewarded by start bank runs and opening bank accounts abroad. One orderly process must be created that allow any country to leave the Eurozone, step by step, along several years, allowing economy and agents to adapt smoothly to the new conditions. One kind of the process a country may follow in order to join the Eurozone shall be put in place for any country that wants or needs to exit from Eurozone.

The features of such a roadmap to a Grexit are not easy to design, but I think that one of the most important issues should be to peg the new currency to the euro. This peg should be agreed by Greek authorities but guaranteed by the ECB, because it is the only entity able to secure the value of the new drachma against the euro. Off course, this would come as a additional cost to the ECB, but a little cost in order to save the Eurozone. Off course, a peg doesn’t imply that the currency will not devaluate. It’s necessary that the devaluation occurs, but not overnight but along a multi-year period, let say 8% each year during 3 years. The capital flight could be stopped if the new national currency offers an interest rate of 8%, so local depositors will get paid for the devaluations. If this can be done, with wages moderation in the economy, it will become more competitive each year, and local agents will not face huge purchasing power losses overnight. Although, inflation would also next to the level of 8%, and wages shall be maintained frozen. That is the adjustment that is necessary to the economy. Some people may want to emigrate, but that is healthy for the domestic economy. And most importantly, there is not a major will to take capitals out of the country, and this environment of programmed currency devaluations are not a problem for economic agents, as the uncertainty is removed from the picture.

Most importantly, economic agents from other fragile economies would be less nervous because they would know that if the country where they do business will have one day to leave the Eurozone, the process will be conducted in an orderly way and they will not feel need to take capitals out of their countries sooner than latter anymore.

You may also be interested in these posts:

Netherlexit: Will Netherlands exit euro before Spaxit

Spanish bailout secrets

Italian debt dynamics

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