Peter Thiel paid staff an extra $1,000 a month if they lived close to the office so they were more likely to work late, book says
Yahoo! Finance: Top Stories / 2023-07-30 20:402

Peter Thiel liked workers to live close to the office, a book says.Marco Bello/Getty Images
Peter Thiel paid staff an extra $1,000 a month if they lived near the office, a former worker said.

The billionaire investor offered it so staff "were more likely to stay late," Michael Gibson wrote.

Gibson made the claim in his book "Paper Belt on Fire: The Fight for Progress in an Age of Ashes."

Peter Thiel offered his staff a monthly bonus of $1,000 if they lived close to the office, according to a former employee of the billionaire investor.

Michael Gibson, a VC investor who worked for Thiel for five years, said in his book "Paper Belt on Fire: The Fight for Progress in an Age of Ashes" that Thiel "lived about 400 yards from the office" in San Francisco and encouraged his employees to live locally too.

Thiel gave workers the bonus so "they were more likely to stay late" and could be around for "a surprise meeting on the weekends," Gibson wrote.

"Employees were granted an extra $1,000 per month in rent if they lived within a half-mile radius of the office," per the title, published by Encounter Books last year.

"It had the added effect that we would all show up to the same watering holes after work to knock off a few drinks and gossip, tell war stories, argue over the jukebox, and have a few laughs. As far as employee benefits go, I always thought this was a wise one."

Gibson co-founded the venture capital fund 1517, which aims to back college dropouts and those who did not study at university.

Similar subsidy schemes were in place at the software company Palantir Technologies, which Thiel co-founded, as well as at Salesforce subsidiary SalesforceIQ, according to reporting by The Guardian.

Thiel is in 217th place on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index with a net worth of $10 billion.

Meta also had deep pockets when it came to offering workers incentives to live near its office. It historically paid "at least $10,000" to Facebook staff if they lived within 10 miles of its headquarters in Menlo Park, Silicon Valley, per The Guardian. It also offered employees with families a one-off payment of at least $15,000 for housing.

While some companies are bringing back such relocation benefits schemes in a bid to get workers to return to the office after the pandemic, others are taking a different approach .

Law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell told its employees that their bonuses could be cut if they're not in the office three days a week, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Recent data from ZipRecruiter showed there were 3.8 million job listings that refer to relocation assistance, up from 2 million posts that mentioned the term in 2020, the Journal reported in April.

ARC Relocation, a firm that helps companies relocate workers, told Insider's Aaron Mok that it's seen a "significant rise" in business since companies started to enforce return-to-office policies.

Thiel and Meta didn't immediately respond to requests for comment from Insider, made outside normal working hours.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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Believe it or not, consumer sentiment is improving
Yahoo! Finance: Top Stories / 2023-07-30 20:402


A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co

Stocks climbed last week with the S&P 500 rising 1.0% to close at 4,582.23. The index is now up 19.3% year to date, up 28.1% from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03, and down 4.5% from its January 3, 2022 record closing high of 4,796.56.

The market rallied as we were reminded not to underestimate the American consumer.

On Friday, the BEA reported that personal consumption expenditures growth accelerated in June, rising to a record annualized rate of $18.4 trillion.

This matters because consumer spending is the dominant driver of the U.S. economy, with personal consumption expenditures accounting for 68% of GDP.

However, consumer behavior can be complex and nuanced.

For most of the past two years, measures of consumer sentiment have been in the dumps — largely due to inflation manifesting clearly in the rising prices of goods and services.

Yet consumer spending growth has persisted.

The explanation: Consumer finances have been in remarkably good shape thanks to a combination of excess savings and relatively low debt levels. Meanwhile, more consumers have been getting jobs, which means more consumers have been making money. If people have money, they'll spend it.

But no economic or market narrative goes unchanged forever. The consumer tailwinds mentioned above have been showing signs of fading.

The consumer narrative is shifting in a fascinating way
In recent months, we've been watching excess savings shrink, consumer debt levels begin to normalize (i.e, rise from unusually low levels), and job growth cool.

These are developments that might not lead you to assume that consumer sentiment would be improving.

But believe it or not, consumer sentiment is improving.

On Friday, we learned the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment in July rose to its highest levels since October 2021.

On Tuesday, we learned the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index in July jumped to its highest level since July 2021.

Notably, the Conference Board's survey also found more consumers are saying their financial situation is good and fewer are saying it's bad.

Fortunately, what we're witnessing isn't total madness among consumers.

While some key metrics of financial health have deteriorated in recent months, others have been improving.

Incomes are outpacing inflation
As Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta has been highlighting for months, real income growth has been positive (i.e., consumers' wage growth is outpacing inflation).

According to BEA data released Friday, real personal income excluding transfer receipts (e.g. Social Security benefits, unemployment insurance benefits, and welfare payments) rose to a record high in June and has been trending higher since December.

This has as much to do with wages rising as it does with inflation cooling.

Earlier this month, we learned the consumer price index in July was up just 3% from a year ago, the lowest print since March 2021.

Among the biggest forces bringing down inflation were energy prices, which were down 16.7% from year-ago levels. Gasoline prices are way down after a brutal 2022.

While policymakers tend to focus on "core" measures of inflation (which exclude volatile components like food and energy prices), headline measures of inflation can have a huge impact on sentiment as they include the prices of goods consumers confront very regularly.

"It is a good thing headline inflation has gone down a bit," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday (h/t Myles Udland). "I would say that having headline inflation move down that much... will strengthen the broad sense that the public has that inflation is coming down, which will, in turn, we hope, help inflation continue to move down."

And even though job growth has been cooling, there continue to be a lot of signs that the demand for labor remains robust.

This was recently confirmed in The Conference Board's July survey, which showed that "46.9% of consumers said jobs were 'plentiful,' up from 45.4%. 9.7% of consumers said jobs were 'hard to get,' much lower than 12.6% last month."

"Overall, the sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets," University of Michigan's Joanne Hsu said.

The Conference Board noted: "Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market."

On the matter of rising interest rates, it's worth remembering that the share of household debt with an adjustable interest rate is low by historical standards.

What to watch
Metrics like excess savings, consumer debt, and debt delinquencies have moved unfavorably in recent months. But none of these developments are signaling that a recession is around the corner. The metrics have only eased from their hottest levels.

But will spending hold up? This will be the key dynamic to watch in the coming months.

It's great that consumer sentiment is on the mend. And it's even better that real incomes are on the rise.

And generally speaking, consumer finances remain very healthy. As Federal Reserve data shows, household debt service payments remain historically low relative to disposable income.

In addition to resilient measures of consumer spending at the aggregate level, anecdotes suggest discretionary spending remains very strong: Royal Caribbean says cruise bookings are surging, Bank of America says Barbie and Oppenheimer have people out and about, and even the Federal Reserve says Taylor Swift concerts are fueling local tourism.

And like consumer behavior, the dynamics of the economy are complex and nuanced. Just because some key metrics are deteriorating doesn't mean the economy is going down. There may be other metrics offsetting these headwinds. You just have to be vigilant and open to the possibility that big narratives can change.

Reviewing the macro crosscurrents
There were a few notable data points and macroeconomic developments from last week to consider:

The Fed hikes rates. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy further by raising its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%

From the Fed's monetary policy statement: "In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective."

"I would say what our eyes are telling us is policy has not been restrictive enough for long enough to have its full desired effects," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference.

In other words, while inflation rates have cooled significantly in recent months, they remain above target levels. And so the Fed will keep monetary policy tight for a little while.

Inflation is cooling. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in June was up 3.0% from a year ago, down from the 3.8% increase in May. The core PCE price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation — was up 4.1% during the month after coming in at 4.6% higher in the prior month.

On a month over month basis, the core PCE price index was up 0.2%. If you annualized the rolling three-month and six-month figures, the core PCE price index was up 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively.

The bottom line is that while inflation rates have been trending lower, they continue to be above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%.

Labor costs are cooling. The employment cost index in the second quarter was up 4.5% from the prior year, down from 4.9% in the first quarter. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, it was up 1.0% in the second quarter, a deceleration from the 1.2% gain in the first quarter.

From Wells Fargo: "The details of the ECI report are consistent with a labor market that is still tight but is gradually cooling from the scorching heat experienced last year. Compensation growth appears to have turned a corner as labor supply and demand come into better balance."

Unemployment claims tick down. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 221,000 during the week ending July 22, down from 228,000 the week prior. While this is up from the September low of 182,000, it continues to trend at levels associated with economic growth.

The U.S. economy grew. U.S. GDP grew at a healthy 2.4% rate in Q2, according to the BEA's advance estimate (via Notes). During the period, personal consumption increased at a 1.6% clip.

Near-term GDP growth estimates remain positive. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model sees real GDP growth climbing at a 3.5% rate in Q3.

Most U.S. states are still growing. From the Philly Fed's State Coincident Indexes report: "Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 49 states and decreased in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 96. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in two states, and remained stable in five, for a one-month diffusion index of 82."

They're building a lot of factories. From Bloomberg: "Business investment in manufacturing facilities surged to the highest level in records that go back to the late 1950s, according to data published Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Spending on factory construction has almost doubled in the past year, after the Biden administration passed laws that provide hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies and other support for industries like clean energy and semiconductors."

Business survey signals cooling. From S&P Global's July Flash U.S. PMI (via Notes): "July is seeing an unwelcome combination of slower economic growth, weaker job creation, gloomier business confidence and sticky inflation. The overall rate of output growth, measured across manufacturing and services, is consistent with GDP expanding at an annualized quarterly rate of approximately 1.5% at the start of the third quarter. That's down from a 2% pace signaled by the survey in the second quarter."

Keep in mind that during times of stress, soft data tends to be more exaggerated than actual hard data.

New home sales jump. Sales of newly built homes (via Notes) fell 2.5% in June to an annualized rate of 697,000 units.

Home prices rise. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index (via Notes), home prices rose 1.2% month-over-month in May. From SPDJI's Craig Lazzara: "Home prices in the U.S. began to fall after June 2022, and May's data bolster the case that the final month of the decline was January 2023. Granted, the last four months' price gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness. But the breadth and strength of May's report are consistent with an optimistic view of future months."

Consumer confidence is up. From The Conference Board's July Consumer Confidence report (via Notes): "Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations… Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000."

Labor market confidence improves. From The Conference Board: "46.9% of consumers said jobs were 'plentiful,' up from 45.4%. 9.7% of consumers said jobs were 'hard to get,' much lower than 12.6% last month."

From The Conference Board's Dana Peterson: "Assessments of the present situation rose in July on brighter views of employment conditions, where the spread between consumers saying jobs are 'plentiful' versus 'hard to get' widened further. This likely reflects upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform."

Consumer spending rises. According to BEA data (via Notes), personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% month over month in June to a record annual rate of $18.4 trillion.

Card spending growth is positive. From JPMorgan Chase: "As of 23 Jul 2023, our Chase Consumer Card spending data (unadjusted) was 2.9% above the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 23 Jul 2023, our estimate of the US Census July control measure of retail sales m/m is 0.46%."

Putting it all together
We continue to get evidence that we could see a bullish "Goldilocks" soft landing scenario where inflation cools to manageable levels without the economy having to sink into recession.

The Federal Reserve recently adopted a less hawkish tone, acknowledging on February 1 that "for the first time that the disinflationary process has started." At its June 14 policy meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, ending a streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes. While the central bank lifted rates again on July 26, most economists agree that the final rate hike is near.

In any case, inflation still has to come down more before the Fed is comfortable with price levels. So we should expect the central bank to keep monetary policy tight, which means we should be prepared for tight financial conditions (e.g. higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, and lower stock valuations) to linger.

All of this means monetary policy will be unfriendly to markets for the time being, and the risk the economy sinks into a recession will be relatively elevated.

At the same time, we also know that stocks are discounting mechanisms, meaning that prices will have bottomed before the Fed signals a major dovish turn in monetary policy.

Also, it's important to remember that while recession risks may be elevated, consumers are coming from a very strong financial position. Unemployed people are getting jobs. Those with jobs are getting raises. And many still have excess savings to tap into. Indeed, strong spending data confirms this financial resilience. So it's too early to sound the alarm from a consumption perspective.

At this point, any downturn is unlikely to turn into economic calamity given that the financial health of consumers and businesses remains very strong.

And as always, long-term investors should remember that recessions and bear markets are just part of the deal when you enter the stock market with the aim of generating long-term returns. While markets have had a pretty rough couple of years, the long-run outlook for stocks remains positive.

A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co

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Eletricidade: anatomia de um desvio colossal - Expresso

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Eletricidade: anatomia de um desvio colossal


Miguel Prado

Bom dia!


Há mais de uma década, quando Portugal estava no início de uma austera intervenção da troika, correram rios de tinta em torno do "desvio colossal" das contas públicas. Como em 2011 observava o então ministro das Finanças, Vítor Gaspar, estava em causa o trabalho "colossal" com que o Governo se confrontava para cumprir metas orçamentais perante o desvio detetado. Em 2011 não era só na contabilidade do Estado que havia um sinal vermelho. O sistema elétrico suscitava igualmente preocupações, com uma montanha de dívida tarifária pela frente, num setor acusado de viver protegido por rendas excessivas. Uma dúzia de anos depois, o tema da dívida tarifária está praticamente resolvido, mas persistem desafios na gestão do mercado. E um deles é o desvio, também ele colossal, entre as previsões que sustentam as tarifas reguladas de eletricidade e os preços realmente verificados.



É um tema regulatório, eminentemente técnico, mas que, mais cedo ou mais tarde, acaba por nos tocar a todos enquanto consumidores de eletricidade. Uma boa parte da fatura que nos chega a casa todos os meses depende das contas feitas todos os anos pela Entidade Reguladora dos Serviços Energéticos (ERSE), que em outubro apresenta uma proposta tarifária, e em dezembro aprova a sua versão final, para vigorar a partir de janeiro. Para os 950 mil clientes que estão no mercado regulado, a sua fatura é integralmente dependente dos termos aprovados pela ERSE. Para os mais de 5 milhões de famílias que estão no mercado liberalizado, uma parte do que pagam depende do comercializador e da forma como este se aprovisiona de energia, mas outra parcela depende das tarifas de acesso à rede estipuladas pela ERSE.


Há dias, a ERSE anunciou uma invulgar proposta de atualização intercalar das tarifas de acesso, a vigorar a partir de 1 de julho. E a razão, de um modo resumido, é que o ano 2023 está a apresentar uma realidade de preços de energia bem diferente daquela que o regulador assumiu no final de 2022, quando aprovou as tarifas para este ano. É uma diferença de mais de 2 mil milhões de euros (que detalhamos mais abaixo). Mas vale a pena olharmos para o assunto com mais alguma profundidade, para entendermos como são construídos os preços que pagamos pela eletricidade.


Na eletricidade a fatura de cada família tem uma componente fixa (pela potência contratada) e outra variável (pela energia consumida). O que pagamos tem de cobrir o custo da produção de eletricidade, o seu transporte e distribuição até às nossas casas, custos de gestão da rede e as margens de lucro das empresas que atuam nesta cadeia. Se na comercialização as margens são livremente definidas por cada operador (exceto o comercializador de último recurso, como a SU Eletricidade, cuja margem é fixada pela ERSE), no transporte e distribuição os custos são regulados (é a ERSE que define quanto a REN e a E-Redes, em Portugal Continental, têm direito a receber). Na produção é um pouco mais complexo: aí convivem produtores em regime geral, que vendem diariamente a sua energia a preços variáveis em função da oferta e da procura, mas também produtores do regime especial (a maior parte dos quais com a garantia de venda da sua eletricidade a uma tarifa pré-definida, válida por vários anos).


Sucede que todos os anos há uma carteira de clientes regulados (como os da SU Eletricidade) que vai aumentando e diminuindo, da mesma forma que a produção do regime especial também vai oscilando (consoante haja mais ou menos geração renovável coberta por este regime). Cabe à ERSE distribuir alguns destes custos do sistema pelos consumidores de eletricidade nos vários níveis de tensão da rede elétrica (desde os que servem diretamente as indústrias aos que servem as famílias), mas o exercício é complexo. O regulador tem de fazer para o ano seguinte múltiplas projeções: o volume esperado da procura de eletricidade, o volume esperado de produção no regime especial (que inclui parques eólicos, mini-hídricas, algumas centrais solares mais antigas, cogerações, entre outros produtores), e, entre outras variáveis, a evolução esperada do preço grossista da eletricidade.


Um dos elementos cruciais no exercício de preparação das tarifas de eletricidade é este último. A ERSE precisa de projetar um preço de mercado de eletricidade para o ano seguinte, de forma a saber qual o diferencial entre o mercado e o custo da produção do regime especial. E precisa de o fazer porque a regulada SU Eletricidade tem a incumbência de adquirir toda a eletricidade do regime especial e a colocar no mercado ibérico; se o preço médio garantido aos produtores do regime especial for de 100 euros por MWh e o preço de mercado for de 50 euros, a SU incorre num sobrecusto de 50 euros por MWh, que terá de ser recuperado nas tarifas suportadas por todos os consumidores de eletricidade; se o preço de mercado for de 200, a SU obtém um ganho de 100 euros por MWh, que terá de ser devolvido a esses mesmos consumidores.


Desde 2020, com a pandemia, que os mercados de energia entraram numa enorme volatilidade. Primeiro, a queda do consumo fez afundar os preços, dos combustíveis à eletricidade. Em 2021, a recuperação da procura fê-los disparar. Em 2022 a guerra na Ucrânia acentuou a volatilidade. E neste início de 2023 o mundo percebeu que a Europa resolveu bem o desafio de curto prazo que tinha no aprovisionamento de gás: o preço do combustível caiu de forma acentuada, e tem permanecido sem grandes oscilações nos últimos meses. No entanto, o mercado grossista de eletricidade na Península Ibérica continua a ser um carrossel, com uma enorme amplitude de preços da noite para o dia.


É neste cenário que aquilo que já era um quebra-cabeças na vida de um regulador (fazer múltiplas projeções de preços e volumes para o ano seguinte) se transformou numa missão virtualmente impossível (não falhar muito nessas projeções). Vamos aos números.


Na sua proposta de tarifas para 2023 a ERSE havia inicialmente estimado, em outubro de 2022, que ao longo deste ano o preço médio da eletricidade no mercado grossista rondaria os 262 euros por megawatt hora (MWh). Em dezembro, na versão final dos tarifários, o preço de referência já tinha baixado para 223 euros por MWh. Era, ainda assim, um valor histórico: nunca antes a ERSE havia assumido para o ano seguinte um custo tão alto de eletricidade no mercado grossista.


Esta projeção do regulador acarretava riscos e benefícios. O benefício principal era que, havendo um enorme diferencial entre o valor de mercado (estimado) da eletricidade e os preços garantidos ao regime especial, esse fosso criava um substancial ganho tarifário (em lugar do sobrecusto que tradicionalmente existia), que resultaria em valores negativos nas tarifas de acesso à rede (TAR). Ou seja, para 2023, a ERSE aprovou TAR negativas: os comercializadores deveriam, nas suas ofertas comerciais, descontar esse valor negativo das redes aos seus custos com a aquisição da energia no mercado. Mas a projeção de 223 euros de preço de mercado assumida pela ERSE implicava também um risco elevado: se o custo médio da eletricidade no mercado ibérico (Mibel) fosse afinal muito inferior, então as tarifas para 2023 teriam um desvio relevante, que mais tarde teria de ser repercutido nos consumidores. E foi o que aconteceu.


Nos primeiros quatro meses do ano o preço médio no Mibel rondou os 92 euros por MWh, menos de metade do pressuposto usado pela ERSE para 2023. Embora tenham passado apenas quatro meses, o desvio é o maior alguma vez registado entre os pressupostos da ERSE e o preço grossista. O levantamento que fizemos para os últimos anos mostra que sempre houve desvios, mas não da magnitude daquele a que estamos a assistir em 2023.


O mercado de futuros, operado pelo Omip, sugere algum agravamento de preços no resto do ano: junho está nos 100 euros por MWh, o terceiro trimestre está nos 112 euros e o quarto trimestre nos 131 euros. Mesmo que se confirmem estes patamares de preço no mercado ibérico, o ano em curso sairá bem abaixo da projeção considerada pela ERSE. Conclusão: as tarifas de acesso de que os consumidores de eletricidade estão a beneficiar (porque negativas) foram sobreestimadas. E foi isso que levou agora a ERSE a propor a revisão excepcional a vigorar a partir de julho, com tarifas de acesso menos negativas no segundo semestre do que as que foram aplicadas na primeira metade do ano.


O efeito prático desta alteração extraordinária promovida pela ERSE está ainda por determinar (mas poderá fazer subir os preços finais das ofertas no mercado liberalizado). A ERSE indica que os custos de interesse económico geral (CIEG), que resultam, em grande medida, de decisões políticas, deverão este ano ser afinal negativos em 2,5 mil milhões de euros, e não no valor negativo de 4,6 mil milhões assumido nas tarifas para 2023. É uma diferença substancial, superior a 2 mil milhões de euros (o equivalente a mais de 300 euros por cada um dos 6,4 milhões de pontos de consumo de eletricidade do país).


O comunicado do regulador sobre o assunto não revela qual o novo valor proposto para as tarifas de acesso. Essa tarifa é atualmente de -0,0958 euros por kilowatt hora (kWh) na componente de energia em tarifa simples. Numa análise publicada há dias no seu perfil no Twitter, Gonçalo Aguiar, especialista na área de energia, calculou, com base nos poucos dados avançados pela ERSE, que a nova tarifa de acesso poderia assumir um valor de -0,0176 euros por kWh (uma outra fonte ouvida pelo Expresso aponta igualmente para um valor próximo dos 2 cêntimos negativos por kWh). Isso significará uma redução da ordem dos 7 cêntimos por kWh no desconto da tarifa de acesso.


Como a ERSE anunciou que os preços do mercado regulado não irão mexer, esta revisão retirará parte da vantagem dos tarifários do mercado liberalizado, que hoje são destacadamente mais baratos (em especial os indexados ao mercado grossista). Aos preços de mercado atuais, os tarifários indexados deverão permanecer competitivos nos próximos meses, mas será preciso esperar por julho para verificar que atualizações ocorrem nos tarifários fixos do mercado livre, e como se comparam entre si e face aos preços regulados.


As próximas semanas implicarão também um delicado exercício tarifário do lado do maior comercializador de eletricidade do país. Afinal, o presidente executivo da EDP, Miguel Stilwell de Andrade, prometeu uma descida de preços a partir de julho. "Vamos seguramente baixar os preços no segundo semestre", declarou o gestor em entrevista ao Expresso. Para quanto? "Vai depender das tarifas de acesso, de eventuais alterações que haja", respondeu Stilwell na entrevista publicada a 21 de abril, parecendo adivinhar o que a ERSE anunciaria uma semana depois. Com tarifas de acesso menos negativas do que as que até agora existiam, qual será a magnitude da descida prometida pela EDP Comercial?


O "desvio colossal" que baralhou as contas do regulador da energia, passados que estão pouco mais de quatro meses depois da aprovação das tarifas de 2023, não é uma questão de fácil resolução. A estrutura e o desenho do sistema português de eletricidade continuam a obrigar a trabalhar com previsões. E assim continuará a ser enquanto houver comercialização de último recurso (regulada) a conviver com o mercado liberalizado, produção de regime especial em paralelo com geração sem preços garantidos e outros fatores que ao longo de décadas marcaram presença na complexa arquitetura tarifária da eletricidade. Um puzzle que fica ainda mais difícil depois de em 2023 o sistema elétrico ter beneficiado de uma injeção extraordinária de verbas do Estado, sem que saibamos se no ano seguinte tal se repetirá.


A dívida tarifária, que em 2015 chegou a ultrapassar os 5 mil milhões de euros, parece hoje um tema bem resolvido em Portugal. O nosso sistema elétrico foi acumulando excedentes tarifários nos últimos anos, conseguindo abater a maior parte do fardo da dívida que vinha de trás. Só em 2023 estão a ser amortizados 830 milhões de euros de dívida tarifária, e chegaremos ao fim do ano com um stock de dívida de 879 milhões. Era pelo menos essa a projeção da ERSE em dezembro. Se 2024 repetisse o perfil de amortização deste ano, chegaríamos a 2025 praticamente sem dívida tarifária na eletricidade. Mas o desvio do corrente ano e a volatilidade que vimos enfrentando no mercado introduzem um ponto de interrogação sobre o momento real de extinção da dívida tarifária.


A complexidade de desenhar tarifas e preços persiste. Há no setor elétrico diferentes perspetivas sobre o desenho ideal do mercado. Há quem defenda mais contratos de longo prazo (ao criarem cash flows previsíveis diminuem o risco dos projetos e o seu custo de financiamento, ao mesmo tempo que proporcionam preços estáveis para o consumidor). Há quem prefira exposição total ao mercado, ganhando mais dinheiro nuns dias e menos noutros. Não é preciso ir muito longe para o ilustrar: a EDP tem há anos a maior parte da sua produção de eletricidade coberta por contratos de longo prazo; a Galp tem preferido expor as suas centrais solares ao mercado (e tem-se dado bem, porque os preços grossistas nos últimos dois anos alcançaram máximos históricos).


Nos próximos anos novos produtores entrarão em cena. Uns com maior apetite pelo risco, outros com a necessidade de garantir preços fixos. Da energia solar à eólica no mar, a concorrência será elevada. As baterias poderão também entrar no jogo para tirar partido das horas de preços loucos. Esta semana, a comunidade Future Energy Leaders Portugal e a Associação Portuguesa da Energia (APE) promoveram um debate sobre as perspetivas das eólicas offshore em Portugal. No evento, o professor universitário João Peças Lopes indicou que as eólicas flutuantes poderão vir a conseguir um custo nivelado de energia em torno dos 50 euros por MWh quando esse mercado (o das torres flutuantes) alcançar massa crítica, isto é, quando alcançar uma capacidade de 20 a 30 gigawatts (GW) globalmente. Esse seria um preço competitivo (é metade do preço ibérico dos futuros para 2024), mas para lá chegarmos é preciso que os projetos saiam do papel e a indústria se materialize. Mas mesmo aí estamos no domínio de elevada incerteza das projeções. Teremos sempre de viver com elas. E com desvios. Sejam eles colossais ou residuais.

DESCODIFICANDO:


VPP. Uma "Virtual Power Plant" é um conjunto de recursos energéticos descentralizados que possam ser agregados virtualmente, por meio de um sistema de controlo digital, para fornecer serviços à rede elétrica. Assim, uma VPP poderá juntar uma série de pequenas instalações fotovoltaicas em casas e fábricas, fazer a gestão remota de sistemas de aquecimento e arrefecimento, bem como gerir um conjunto de baterias e uma frota de veículos elétricos, usando as respetivas potências e a sua energia para fornecer serviços à rede em momentos críticos, funcionando como uma alternativa flexível às convencionais centrais elétricas. As receitas associadas à prestação desses serviços são depois partilhadas entre os proprietários dos vários ativos descentralizados.



E VALE A PENA LER:


É sobre VPP o mais recente estudo do Brattle Group, encomendado pela Google, e que é intitulado "Real Reliability: the value of virtual power". O trabalho conclui que seria economicamente vantajoso os Estados Unidos da América apostarem nestas centrais virtuais para garantirem o equilíbrio do seu sistema elétrico. Lembrando que na última década os EUA instalaram mais de 100 gigawatts (GW) de nova capacidade firme (na sua maior parte centrais a gás, mas também baterias) com um investimento de 120 mil milhões de dólares, a análise do Brattle Group estima que a eventual instalação de 60 GW de VPP poderá proporcionar poupanças de 15 a 35 mil milhões de dólares ao longo de uma década face aos custos que teria a construção de centrais a gás e baterias para garantir a segurança e flexibilidade da rede elétrica.



A newsletter termina aqui, mas pode continuar a seguir o essencial do mundo da energia no Expresso. A próxima edição chega daqui a duas semanas, a 18 de maio. Até lá, pode enviar-me os seus comentários, reparos, críticas e sugestões para mprado@expresso.impresa.pt. Tenha um excelente final de semana!


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Will BRICS Implement A Gold Backed Currency In August?
por Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge / 2023-07-18 01:0864
Will BRICS Implement A Gold Backed Currency In August?
By Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Gainesville Coins

Aside from speculation there hasn't been official confirmation by any BRICS nations that they will either issue a new currency backed by gold or peg their currencies to gold anytime soon. Although it's likely discussions are going on among BRICS nations to create a new currency, no agreement has been reached and policy makers are denying the new currency is soon to be launched. Current talk about a new currency—suggesting a gold standard will be implemented in August at the next BRICS summit—should be treated with skepticism.

Image:
Attention for alliances such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has increased since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the West seized Russia's dollar assets, and global tensions reached a crescendo. The BRICS, among other countries, have an interest in de-dollarization and have become more vocal about it, though easier said than done.

No Confirmation for New BRICS Currency
Based on an item by Russian news agency RT, broadcasted July 7, 2023, several gold commentators became confident that the BRICS will announce a gold standard this August at their next summit in South Africa. In my view, there is a lack of proof for this conclusion.

Let us examine on which grounds RT communicated a gold backed currency is to be introduced by the BRICS—widely interpreted as a new gold standard. Unfortunately, there is not one official BRICS website to verify what is being stated on Russian news outlets, financial blogs, and Twitter. For every summit a new website is launched. On the BRICS 2023 site I can't find confirmation of a new currency so we will have to evaluate the source provided by RT.

RT is banned in the West but has several accounts on Twitter. RT India shared a tweet on July 7 that reads: "BRICS Plans to Introduce New Gold-Backed Currency." Primarily this tweet is what caused a stir about a BRICS gold standard.

#BRICS Plans to Introduce New Gold-Backed Currency

The proposed gold-backed currency will contrast with the credit-backed US dollar, with the decision coming a month ahead of the bloc's summit in Johannesburg.

The growing initiative has more and more nations lining up to join… pic.twitter.com/pCF6y9xvGY

— RT_India (@RT_India_news) July 7, 2023
In the video that accompanies the tweet, the source of RT India appears to be a tweet from July 3 by the Russian Embassy in Kenya. From scrolling through all tweets by the Russian Embassy in Kenya one would think this is an account of an activist, not an embassy. Furthermore, the screenshot of the tweet from the Russian Embassy shown by RT India in their video is edited! The actual tweet, which can be seen below, includes a link to an opinion editorial by US economist Joseph Sullivan for the website Foreign Policy, titled: "A BRICS Currency Could Shake the Dollar's Dominance." This article in Foreign Policy is the source of the Russian Embassy's tweet; the source is not the Russian Embassy itself, which RT India wants you to believe.

The BRICS countries are planning to introduce a new trading currency, which will be backed by gold.
More and more counties recently express desire to join BRICS.https://t.co/lMKTd4FlnT

— Russian Embassy in Kenya/Посольство России в Кении (@russembkenya) July 3, 2023
Sullivan provides two hyperlinks to sources regarding Alexander Babakov, deputy chairman of Russia's State Duma. According to Sullivan, Babakov has stated that Russia "is now spearheading the development of a new currency."

The first link from Sullivan brings us to an article on Coin Telegraph, which links to a piece on India TV, reporting on the Russia-India Business Forum 2023 that was held on March 29 and 30. From India TV (March 30):

Babakov stressed that both nations should work to obtain a new medium for payment and added digital payment could be the "most promising" and "most viable" option for both nations. "New Delhi, Moscow should institute a new economic association with a new shared currency, which could be a digital ruble or the Indian rupee," said Babakov.

"Our goal should be focused on writing new rules in the financial sphere in order to enable the use of an already common currency," he stressed.

"It doesn't matter whether it's a digital ruble, a digital rupee, a digital yuan, or some other currency. But this currency must follow the laws of our respective nations," added the top Russian official. 

There is not a word on gold in the article by India TV.

The second link from Sullivan brings us to the India Times that writes (April 4):

According to reports quoting Russian lawmaker Alexander Babakov, the BRICS nations are in the process of creating a new medium for payments—established on a strategy that "does not defend the dollar or euro." 

Babakov, who is the deputy Chairman of Russia's State Duma, reportedly indicated that the new currency would be secured by gold and other commodities such as rare-earth elements.

The India Times states that "reportedly" a new currency will be established secured by gold and other commodities, though there is no source provided. The RT trail ends there. Any news based on the tweet by RT India is overblown.

Other websites, such as Al Mayadeen and TeleSUR, offer more information about what Babakov has said on the Russia-India Business Forum. From Al Mayadeen (March 30):

"The transition to settlements in national currencies is the first step. The next one is to provide the circulation of digital or any other form of a fundamentally new currency in the nearest future. I think that at the BRICS [leaders' summit], the readiness to realize this project will be announced, such works are underway," Babakov said on the sidelines of the Russian-Indian … Forum.

Babakov further did not dismiss the possibility of the formation of a single BRICS currency. According to him, the currency would be secured not just by gold, but also by other groups of products, including rare-earth elements of the soil.

What Babakov said on the sidelines of the forum doesn't sound like the BRICS will implement a gold standard at the next summit in August. The first step is to trade in national currencies, then a new currency could be created, for which the "readiness to realize [it] … will be announced" at the next summit, Babakov thinks.

Implementing this currency could be years away. One, thinking of announcing to start cooperating doesn't mean much. Second, how Babakov describes the currency is vague and no other BRICS nation has supported his idea publicly. Babakov's currency backed by gold and other commodities is impractical and will need readjustments. Third, a BRICS initiative for "strengthening … economic partnership" "to reduce dependence on the US dollar" was already discussed in 2012 and developments take time.

Russian news agencies RIA Novosti and TASS also reported on Babakov's remarks at the forum on March 30, 2023. From Ria Novosti (Google Translate):

The BRICS countries are working on a new form of currency and can present ideas for its development at the summit of leaders of the association this year in South Africa, said Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Alexander Babakov.

Presenting ideas is not the same as implementing a gold standard. Besides, we don't know how much of this is propaganda. We need official sources from other BRICS members to jump conclusions.

Conclusion
Logically, the Russians advocate any alternative to the dollar as they are restricted from using the Western based international financial infrastructure. On the website of the Kremlin there is a statement from President Putin from June 22, 2022:

We are exploring the possibility of creating an international reserve currency based on the basket of BRICS currencies.

Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in May 2023:

The idea of creating a common currency … is floating around and is being discussed. We also have proposals about using digital financial assets supported by real assets, for example gold – stablecoins.

But what's it going to be? A currency backed by commodities, a gold stable coin, or a reserve currency based on a basket of BRICS currencies? According to a video shared by the Hindustan Times, India's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said, on July 3, 2023, none of the above:

There is no idea for a BRICS currency. … Currencies to my mind will remain very much a national issue for a long time to come.

Bloomberg reported on July 5:

The New Development Bank, a financial institution created by the BRICS bloc of emerging markets, doesn't have any immediate plans for the group to create a common currency, its vice president and chief financial officer said. 

"The development of anything alternative is more a medium to long term ambition," he said. "There is no suggestion right now to creates a BRICS currency."

I think it should be clear that neither the Russians nor the BRICS as a whole has a plan worked out for a new currency soon to be introduced, as opposed to what's hyped in the media. Mr. Market didn't believe the RT India item as the gold price didn't budge when it was broadcasted.

As per CFO of the New Development Bank, the BRICS are discussing a common currency for the long term, but I will believe it when its design is finished.

The central banks of Brazil, South Africa, Russia, and India declined to comment on a common BRICS currency over email.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/17/2023 - 17:40

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Why TotalEnergies' $27 Billion Deal With Iraq Is A Gamechanger
por Simon Watkins

Oilprice.com / 2023-07-18 01:105


The four-pronged megadeal between TotalEnergies and Iraq has received the greenlight after many delays.
The US$27 billion megadeal is set to move into action within four weeks and, if it does, then it will be a game-changer for Iraq.
Most important of the four projects is the completion of the Common Seawater Supply Project.
The long-delayed US$27 billion four-pronged megadeal between France's TotalEnergies and the Federal Government of Iraq has received the final go-ahead from both sides and is due to start within the next four weeks. The huge deal is crucial in enabling Iraq to increase its oil production from around 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to perhaps 13 million bpd within five years. It is also critical to Iraq's ability to end its dependence on Iran for gas imports and electricity for its power grid. For the West, the deal is crucial is securing access to Iraq's huge, underdeveloped oil and gas reserves as part of its strategy to find new sources of each to compensate for lost supplies from Russia. It is also vital in reasserting a stake in the central Middle East to counteract the increasing influence of China and Russia there, as analysed in my new book on the new global oil market order. In short, this four-pronged deal with TotalEnergies is a very big thing indeed, which is why all parties involved have pulled out all the stops to either get it across the line or stop it in its tracks, depending on which side they are on.

Iraq's input into proceedings, which caused the main delays from the original signing of the megadeal in 2021 to now, was not part of a brilliantly interwoven geopolitical strategy aimed at world domination (that was China, with a little help from Russia – more of that in a moment). Instead, it was down to its standard attempts to gouge out as much as possible in the way of commissions – delivered in the form of 'cash compensation payments' made to various front companies - for some senior government people. Suffice it to say here that at one stage Iraq was in the process of re-establishing the omni-toxic Iraqi National Oil Company (INOC), an organisation widely regarded within the oil industry as one of the most corrupt organisations ever created. It quickly became clear that one does not get to become a senior figure in France's leading oil and gas company by being as stupid as seems to be the minimum requirement to secure a senior position in Iraq's Oil Ministry, with TotalEnergies refusing to partner with INOC 'due to the lack of clarity on the legal status of the company'. In layman's terms, the French oil and gas behemoth did not trust INOC as far as it could throw it. In October 2022, then, Iraq's Federal Supreme Court invalidated the decision to re-establish the Iraqi National Oil Company on the basis that several of its founding clauses were in breach of the constitution, and the deal with TotalEnergies was again a realistic prospect. There have been further shenanigans from Iraq aimed at increasing the possibilities for personal enrichment of some key government people involved – the main one being an increase in the government's stake in the projects to varying degrees – but all have been rebuffed by the French firm. As it stands, the agreement is now for the Iraq government (through the Basrah Oil Company) to hold a 30 percent stake in the megadeal. TotalEnergies will hold 45 percent of it, with QatarEnergy holding the remaining 25 percent stake.

According to sources in the U.S.'s and European Union's energy security complexes spoken to exclusively by OilPrice.com on this megadeal, Iraq was emboldened to make such demands of TotalEnergies by elements from China and Russia. Following the recent landmark resumption of relations between Iran - which retains enormous influence over Iraq through political, military and economic proxies - and Saudi Arabia, brokered by China (and Russia to a lesser degree), it was made clear to Iran it should do all it could to stop Western companies doing deals in Iraq. Specifically, the European Union's energy security source exclusively told OilPrice.com, Iran was told by a very high-ranking official from the Kremlin that: "By keeping the West out of energy deals in Iraq – and closer to the new Iran-Saudi axis - the end of Western hegemony in the Middle East will become the decisive chapter in the West's final demise". 

This would also play into what China wants from the Middle East in its grand scheme of things, as delineated in its multi-generational power-grab project, 'One Belt, One Road'. What it wants is to turn the region into a large oil and gas station by which it can fuel its economic growth to overtake the U.S. as the number one economic and political superpower by 2030. The three biggest oil and gas reserves in the region belong to Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, so it wants to control those to begin with, as examined in detail in my new book. For Russia, which already has lots of oil and gas – over which China already has significant control – the objectives in the Middle East are more varied. One objective is to continue to exert influence in several countries that it regards as being key to maintaining some of its hold over the Former Soviet Union states. Another, more recent one, is to use this influence to bolster its position as a partner of note to China. As for the other countries in this soap opera – Iran, and Iraq, and now also more clearly, Saudi Arabia – they are in this new global alliance partly for the economic and political support from China (and to a lesser degree, Russia) and because their political systems are naturally much closer to the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia than they are to the democratic ones of the U.S. and its allies.

Nonetheless, as it stands, the US$27 billion megadeal is set to move into action within four weeks and, if it does, then it will be a game-changer for Iraq. Most important of the four projects is the completion of the Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP). This is crucial to enabling Iraq to reach its longer-term crude oil production targets of 7 million bpd, and then 9 million bpd and then perhaps 13 million bpd, as also analysed in depth in my latest book on the global oil markets. The project involves taking and treating seawater from the Persian Gulf and then transporting it via pipelines to oil production facilities to maintain pressure in oil reservoirs to optimise the longevity and output of fields. The long-delayed plan for the CSSP is that it initially supplies around 6 million bpd of water to at least five southern Basra fields and one in Maysan Province and is then expanded for use in other fields. 

The second of the projects is also a matter of urgent necessity: to collect and refine associated Natural Gas that is currently burned off at the five southern Iraq oilfields of West Qurna 2, Majnoon, Tuba, Luhais, and Artawi. Initial comments from Iraq's Oil Ministry last year highlighted that the plant involved in this process is expected to produce 300 million cubic feet of gas per day (mcf/d) and double that after a second phase of development. Former Iraqi Oil Minister, Ihsan Abdul Jabbar, also stated last year that the gas produced from this second TotalEnergies project in the south would help Iraq to cut its gas imports from Iran. Successfully capturing associated gas rather than flaring it will also allow Iraq to revive the also long-stalled US$11-billion Nebras petrochemicals project with Shell, which could be completed within five years and would generate estimated profits of up to US$100 billion for Iraq within its 35-year initial contract period.

TotalEnergies already has ongoing experience of working across Iraq, holding a 22.5 percent stake in the Halfaya oil field in Missan province in the south and an 18 percent stake in the Sarsang exploration block in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in the north. This gives it very specific operational experience of working on the ground in Iraq, which would also enable it to increase crude oil output from the Artawi oil field – and this is the third of the four projects to which it is committed. According to earlier comments from Iraq's Oil Ministry, TotalEnergies would help to boost output from the Artawi oilfield to 210,000 bpd of crude oil, up from the current circa-85,000 bpd. The last of the four projects that were to have been undertaken by the French company would be the construction and operation of a 1,000-megawatt solar energy plant in Iraq.

By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

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Big LNG buyers and producers to tighten methane monitoring
Financial Times: Markets / 2023-07-18 01:335
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Japan, the US, the EU, Australia and South Korea are in final talks on the creation of a mechanism for monitoring methane emissions that will bring together some of the world's largest buyers and producers of liquefied natural gas to combat global warming.

People directly involved in the discussions said the public-private initiative would involve setting up a database of real-time methane pollution data on individual LNG projects, a move backers hope will accelerate the reduction of emissions of the potent global warming gas. 

The initiative comes after global fossil fuel industry emissions of methane increased to a near-record in 2022.

This was despite the so-called global methane pledge signed by more than 100 countries at a UN climate summit in 2021. Big emitters including China, Russia and India did not sign the agreement, which was spearheaded by the US and EU. US climate envoy John Kerry, who is in China for climate talks this week, has long pressed Beijing to strengthen its commitment to reducing methane emissions.

The team behind the UN COP28 climate summit in the UAE this year is also making a push for "near-zero" methane emissions in the oil and gas industry by 2030. 

Methane is the main component of natural gas and accounts for about 30 per cent of the global temperature rise since the industrial revolution, with the energy industry making up about a third of human-induced methane emissions, second only to agriculture. The emissions result mainly from flaring — the burning of excess gas — and leakage.

Cutting methane emissions is regarded by scientists as among the cheapest and quickest ways to tackle global climate change, as the gas generates more warming than carbon dioxide but is shorter-lived.

The methane database was proposed by Japan, chair of this year's G7 summit and one of the world's largest importers of LNG. Tokyo has previously been criticised by climate activists for opposing a global agreement for the phaseout of fossil fuels and for continued funding of new overseas gas projects. 

The new initiative — called the "coalition for LNG emission abatement towards net zero" — is set to be announced on Tuesday at an LNG conference in Tokyo co-hosted by the International Energy Agency, the people involved in the discussions said.

Japan's Jera and South Korea's Kogas, two of the world's largest LNG buyers, will ask major producers to provide basic data on emissions such as volume and intensity as well as reduction targets and measures being taken. Participation will be voluntary and the results will be disclosed by the government-backed Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, known as Jogmec. 

Recommended

There is already a reporting framework for methane pollution led by the UN Environment Programme's Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0. 

But Japanese officials said the existing database does not provide project-based methane emissions and only company-level total emissions. They said there is also not enough data specific to LNG production and measuring and disclosure methods are too inconsistent.

Tokyo's effort was backed by the European Commission and the US, where Joe Biden's administration has proposed fines on methane leaks as a key part of its battle to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The oil and gas industry has objected to the proposed US rules, which would allow private groups to monitor and report leaks.

Japanese officials are counting on pressure from Jera and Kogas to incentivise LNG suppliers to act. Jogmec also hopes to bring companies on board by promoting projects with the lowest methane emission intensity on its website, while selling Japanese technology to detect or reduce methane leaks.

"We need to use LNG for the foreseeable future so the question is how we can use it cleanly," said an official at Japan's ministry of economy, trade and industry.



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