February 14, 2008


Well,... I try! Believe that i try to be a regular poster. But sit seems that i am not the perfect blooger. Sorry!

In order to compensate the lack of posts of last days i decided to post na extra message today.

Yesterday european markets rose 3 percent !!! Us were more moderate, but today us markets rose for the third straigth day, for the first time in 2008... Is this time to buy? I don't belive much on this short term rally. I think markets are giving us one more nice entrie point to go short.
In this strategy i would prefer to short stoxx 50, because:
- european markets are in bear territory while us are not;
- emerging markets are still in the ascendent trend;
- nikkey is getting strong support on 13000.

Regarding forex, my strongest view refers to eurusd where i expect to attend to a strong dolar valuation during the next 3 months. I think that us dolar will get higher valued, so we shall also assist to drop of gold prices, as also others commoditties prices. To see more details one my opinion on forex look for my post in the eurusd forum of http://www.dailyfx.com (posted 13/02/2008). I got surprised by the interesting level of the us retail sales known today. But this is just one more indicator, very volatile and often revised.

Some interesting rumours i would like to discuss with you: shall ebay and amazon merge? Why buffet said some days ago that is interested mostly in brasilian assets denominated in real and offered himself to buy US municipal bonds which are us dolar denominated? Is aeroports de paris being privatised in the medium term? Do you want to share your thougths with me?

February 13, 2008

Weekly review

After some days absent i'm back. In my last post i was expecting the ocurrence of the black tuesday. FED saw the same problems than me and balanced the bear sentiment with a bull tax cut of 75bps, na emergency cut.

Since then, another cut in the FED rate, and some extra indications about the slowdown of the american economy had inspired the movements of the markets.

From all the data that become available during these days I classify has most important the good ISM manufacture, the bad ISM services and the labour market data. From these indicators one can see that the services sector, which account to 90% of the US economy is loosing momentum

(note: i was interrupted when i was writting this post, one week ago, so now it makes no sense to write about market scenarios in the past, so this post ends here!)

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