December 13, 2011

Once upon a time

Há um século atrás um senhor defendia que apesar de haver um certo receio que pudesse ocorrer uma guerra, isso não deveria ocorrer, porque não fazia sentido económico, num mundo globalizado e interdependente.

Os custos da guerra seriam tão elevados para os países industrializados, pelo que essa guerra não iria ocorrer.

A primeira guerra mundial começou 5 anos mais tarde!

Qualquer paralelismo com a situação actual e o possível break-up da zona euro é mera coincidência.

Ainda assim, o homem ganhou o prémio Nobel da paz em 1933!

The Great Illusion is a book by Norman Angell, first published in Britain in 1909 under the title Europe's Optical Illusion and republished in 1910 and subsequently in various enlarged and revised editions under the title The Great Illusion.

According to John Keegan "Europe in the summer of 1914 enjoyed a peaceful productivity so dependent on international exchange and co-operation that a belief in the impossibility of a general war seemed the most conventional of wisdoms. In 1910 an analysis of prevailing economic interdependence, The Great Illusion, had become a best-seller; its author Norman Angell had demonstrated, to the satisfaction of almost all informed opinion, that the disruption of international credit inevitably to be caused by war would either deter its outbreak or bring it speedily to an end."

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