UBS Seeks Government Backstop As It Rushes To Finalize Credit Suisse Takeover Deal As Soon As Tonight

por Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge / 2023-03-18 17:00177
UBS Seeks Government Backstop As It Rushes To Finalize Credit Suisse Takeover Deal As Soon As Tonight
So much can change in just 48 hours.

Late on Thursday, just hours after the SNB had launched the first (of many) bailout attempts of Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse, Bloomberg blasted the following headline:

*UBS, CREDIT SUISSE SAID TO OPPOSE IDEA OF A FORCED COMBINATION
This lack of enthusiasm by UBS to acquire its struggling rival of course forced the Swiss National Bank to front CS a CHF50 billion credit line to hold it over for the next four days amid a furious bank run, one which we said would be woefully insufficient to restore confidence in the collapsing lender, and which we probably used up in just a few hours.

Then, late on Friday, both banks "unexpectedly" changed their minds and we got the following 180 degree U-Turn report from the FT:

*UBS IN TALKS TO ACQUIRE ALL OR PART OF CREDIT SUISSE: FT
So a deal is inevitable after all... but as always, there is a footnote one which we predicted yesterday when we said that a deal would only happen if the acquiring bank - in this case UBS - got a full central bank backstop.

bank megamerger weekend, with lots of central bank backstops https://t.co/pobOLTtFJM

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 17, 2023
That now appears to be the case with Bloomberg, Reuters and the WSJ all reporting that UBS is asking the Swiss government for a backstop to cover future risks if it were to buy Credit Suisse Group AG, after the Swiss National Bank and regulator Finma have told international counterparts that they regard a deal with UBS as the only option to arrest a collapse in confidence in Credit Suisse. The FT reported that deposit outflows from the bank topped CHF10bn ($10.8bn) a day late last week as fears for its health mounted.

According to the reports, UBS is discussing scenarios in which the government would take on certain legal costs and potential losses in any deal. Credit Suisse set aside SFr1.2bn in legal provisions in 2022 and warned that as yet unresolved lawsuits and regulatory probes could add another SFr1.2bn.

UBS also wants to be allowed to phase in any demands it would face under global rules on capital for the world's biggest banks.

The backroom negotiations are taking place as the largest Swiss bank is exploring an urgent acquisition of all or parts of its smaller rival at the urging of regulators to halt a crisis of confidence, one which local authorities hope will be concluded on Saturday

Under one likely scenario, the deal would involve UBS acquiring Credit Suisse to obtain its wealth and asset management units, while possibly divesting the investment banking division, which has become the laughing stock on Wall Street after being one of the most iconic groups less than two decades ago. Talks are also still ongoing on the fate of Credit Suisse's profitable Swiss universal bank.

According to the FT, the boards of the two banks are meeting this weekend as Credit Suisse's regulators in the US, the UK and Switzerland are considering the legal structure of a deal and several concessions that UBS has sought.

UBS wants to be allowed to phase in any demands it would face under global rules on capital for the world's biggest banks. Additionally, UBS has requested some form of indemnity or government agreement to cover future legal costs, one of the people said.

* * *

The time scale for agreement is fluid, according to Bloomberg which notes that the goal is for an announcement of a deal between the two banks by Sunday evening at the latest, while the Financial Times reported that a deal could emerge as soon as Saturday evening.

UBS executives had been opposed to an arranged combination with its rival because they wanted to focus on their own wealth management-centric strategy and were reluctant to take on risks related to Credit Suisse, Bloomberg reported earlier this week.  Credit Suisse had 1.2 billion Swiss francs ($1.3 billion) in legal provisions at the end of 2022 and disclosed that it saw reasonably possible losses adding another 1.2 billion francs to that total, with several lawsuits and regulatory probes outstanding, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Credit Suisse has been unprofitable over the course of the last decade and has racked up billions in legal losses, while also suffering a historic bank run.


As we reported yesterday, the bank run spike late last week, and FT sources said deposit outflows from the bank topped Sfr10bn ($10.8bn) a day late last week as fears for its health mounted.

A government-brokered deal would address a rout in Credit Suisse that sent shock waves across the global financial system this week when panicked investors dumped its shares and bonds following the collapse of several smaller US lenders. A liquidity backstop by the Swiss central bank this week briefly arrested the declines, but the market drama carries the risk that clients or counterparties would continue fleeing, with potential ramifications for the broader industry.

The prospective takeover reflects the sharp divergence in the two banks' fortunes. Over the past three years, UBS shares have gained about 120% while those of its smaller rival have plunged roughly 70%.

The former has a market capitalisation of $56.6bn, while Credit Suisse closed trading on Friday with a value of $8bn. In 2022, UBS generated $7.6bn of profit, whereas Credit Suisse made a $7.9bn loss, effectively wiping out the entire previous decade's earnings.

* * *

Swiss regulators told their US and UK counterparts on Friday evening that merging the two banks was "plan A" to arrest a collapse in investor confidence in Credit Suisse, one of the people said. There is no guarantee a deal, which would need to be approved by UBS shareholders, will be reached the FT warned.

Negotiators have given Credit Suisse the code name Cedar and UBS is referred to as Ulmus, according to people briefed on the matter.

The fact that the SNB and Finma favour a Swiss solution has deterred other potential bidders. Earlier today the FT reported that BlackRock had drawn up a rival approach, evaluated a number of options and talked to other potential investors, but in the end withdrew from the process.

A full merger between UBS and Credit Suisse - whose headquarters face each other across Zurich's central Paradeplatz square, would be an historic event for the nation and global finance and would create one of the biggest global systemically important financial institutions in Europe. UBS has $1.1tn total assets on its balance sheet and Credit Suisse has $575bn. However, such a large deal may prove too unwieldy to execute.

The Financial Times has previously reported that other options under consideration include breaking up Credit Suisse and raising funds via a public offering of its ringfenced Swiss division, with the wealth and asset management units being sold to UBS or other bidders.

UBS has been on high alert for an emergency rescue call from the Swiss government after investors grew wary of Credit Suisse's most recent restructuring. Last year, chief executive Ulrich Körner announced a plan to cut 9,000 jobs and spin off much of its investment bank into a new entity called First Boston, run by former board member Michael Klein.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/18/2023 - 12:39

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Credit Suisse's Fate Rests in the Hands of These Power Players

Yahoo! Finance: Top Stories / 2023-03-18 19:22



(Bloomberg) --

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A politician, an economist, and a mathematician are among the select group of power players who will determine the future of what was once Switzerland's pre-eminent financial institution.

After a crisis of investor confidence, Credit Suisse Group AG is locked in emergency talks this weekend that are likely to end in the breakup of the 166-year-old bank. Longtime rival UBS Group AG is in negotiations with regulators about which parts of the firm it may acquire.

It's a dramatic fall from grace for a titan of Switzerland's all-powerful banking industry. The people at the epicenter are a small band of figures drawn from politics and finance. Here are some of the key players:

Karin Keller-Sutter, 59, has been Switzerland's finance minister for less than three months. A member of the country's pro-business liberals, she has been part of the seven-member government since 2019 and active in politics for 30 years. Before being elected to the government, she was on the board of insurer Baloise Holding AG and president of the Swiss Retail Federation.

Urban Angehrn, born in 1965, has been leading Finma, the Swiss financial regulator, since November 2021. He worked for 14 years at Zurich Insurance and previously as head of strategy at Winterthur's asset management division. Before that, he spent 11 years in derivatives marketing at Credit Suisse First Boston and JPMorgan Chase & Co. He earned a Masters degree in physics from ETH Zurich before completing a PhD in mathematics from Harvard.

Thomas Jordan, 60, has been chairman of the Swiss National Bank since April 2012. During his time, he has led the central bank through a phase of ultra-expansive monetary-policy, with the world's lowest interest rate and currency interventions to stop the franc — a haven in times of market stress — from strengthening. The SNB started raising rates in June and ended negative rates in September. Jordan studied economics and business at the University of Bern. He has been at the SNB since 1997.

UBS's chairman knows a crisis. Colm Kelleher, who took his current role less than a year ago, was Morgan Stanley's chief financial officer during the financial crisis of 2008. The 65-year-old helped orchestrate an emergency investment from Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. that, along with state assistance, kept the US bank afloat. He then helped oversee Morgan Stanley's investment bank as it sought to win back clients lost in the panic. He retired from the firm in 2019 and joined UBS with the goal of replicating the success of Morgan Stanley's strategy of scaling up in wealth management to win over investors.

UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Ralph Hamers, 56, cuts a somewhat unusual figure among top executives at Swiss banks, with his preference for open-necked shirts and business buzzwords. His arrival at UBS from Dutch lender ING Groep NV in 2020 was clouded by a legal battle over his role in a money laundering scandal. Since taking over in Zurich, he has been buoyed by robust results — though his strategy of making UBS a more digital bank was dealt a blow when he was forced to abandon his acquisition of Wealthfront, a US robo-adviser.

Credit Suisse Group AG Chairman Axel Lehmann knows both addresses on Paradeplatz well, having served as chief operating officer at UBS and president of its Swiss bank. The 63-year-old was appointed as a safer, more local pair of hands after Antonio Horta-Osorio was forced to depart following a scandal over Covid-era quarantine breaks. Lehmann has since made forceful efforts to shore up confidence in Credit Suisse — including a controversial episode late last year when he claimed that outflows of client assets from the bank had "basically stopped." The bank's subsequent admission that they hadn't saw Lehmann briefly the subject of a regulatory probe, which was later dropped.

Another ex-UBS decision-maker, Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner started his second stint at Credit Suisse in 2021 as head of the asset management unit before taking over the top job from Thomas Gottstein last year. The 60-year-old has the reputation of a ruthless cost-cutter, and the bank has claimed its effort to shed jobs since its October reboot is ahead of plan. The German-Swiss citizen ran Credit Suisse's domestic bank in the early 2000s, having begun his career at McKinsey & Co. Inc.

--With assistance from Bastian Benrath.

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