January 23, 2008

Next week football results

Here are some new forecasts for the comming footbal week matches:

You can read the table using the following instructions:
- first column signal games where confidence on prediction is higher with an arrow '=>';
- second and third columns are the home and visitor teams names;
- Fourth column gives the most likely outcomes (1- wins home team, 2- wins visitors team, X- tied game);
- last columns tells you the predicted final score, which should be rounded to integer to make sense, because you will never get 1,5 goals. But a team with 0,8 will have more odds to score than other with only 0.6.


Chelsea - Reading 1 2.4 - 1.1
Werder Bremen - Bochum 1 2.4 - 1.1
Arsenal - Newcastle 1 2.1 - 0.8
Sevilha - Osasuna 1 2.0 - 0.8
Murcia - Levante 1 1.5 - 0.5
Racing - Sarago
ça 1 1.6 - 0.6
Sampdoria - Siena 1 1.9 - 0.9
Vizela - Estoril 1 1.9 - 1.0
Atalanta - Reggina 1 1.9 - 1.0
Marítimo - Boavista 1 1.4 - 0.5
Catania - Parma 1 1.4 - 0.6
Real Madrid - Villarreal 1 2.2 - 1.3
Schalke 04 - Estugarda 1 1.8 - 1.0
Bolton - Fulham 1 1.7 - 0.8
Espanyol - Betis 1 1.3 - 0.5
Everton - Tottenham 1 1.8 - 1.0
AS Roma - Palermo 1 2.3 - 1.5
Manchester United - Portsmouth 1 1.8 - 1.0
Leixões - P. Ferreira 1 1.5 - 0.8
Aves - Beira-Mar 1 1.6 - 1.0
Karlsruhe - Nuremberga 1 1.6 - 1.1
Udinese - Inter 2 1.1 - 1.7
Lens - Estrasburgo 1 1.5 - 0.9
Marselha - Caen 1 1.2 - 0.7
Portimonense - Rio Ave 2 1.1 - 1.7
Hansa Rostock - Bayern Munique 2 0.9 - 1.4
Sp. Braga - Belenenses 1 1.3 - 0.8
Deportivo - Valladolid 2 1.3 - 1.8
Hamburgo - Hannover 96 1 1.5 - 1.0
Gil Vicente - Trofense 1X 1.2 - 0.8
Santa Clara - Penafiel 1X 1.3 - 0.9
Hertha Berlim - Eintracht Frankfurt 1X 1.5 - 1.1
Metz - Rennes 2X 0.9 - 1.4
Arminia Bielefeld - Wolfsburgo 1X 1.9 - 1.5
Saint Étienne - Lyon 1X 1.4 - 1.0
Middlesbrough - Wigan 1X 1.6 - 1.2
Sunderland - Birmingham 1X 1.4 - 1.0
Recreativo - Getafe 1X 1.3 - 0.9
Derby - Manchester City 2X 1.0 - 1.4
Sporting - FC Porto 1X 1.5 - 1.2
Milan - Génova 1X 1.1 - 0.8
Torino - Lazio 1X 1.3 - 1.0
Duisburgo - Borussia Dortmund 1X 1.6 - 1.4
West Ham - Liverpool 2X 1.0 - 1.2
Valencia - Almería 2X 1.3 - 1.5
Livorno - Juventus 2X 1.3 - 1.5
Naval - E. Amadora 1X 1.1 - 0.9
Auxerre - Nancy 1X 1.0 - 0.9
Athletic - Barcelona 2X 0.9 - 1.1
Cagliari - Nápoles 2X 1.4 - 1.6
Toulouse - Nice 1X 0.8 - 0.7
Fátima - Varzim 1X 1.4 - 1.2
Lorient - Bordéus 1X 1.0 - 0.9
Gondomar - Feirense 1X 0.9 - 0.8
Aston Villa - Blackburn 1X 1.6 - 1.4
Maiorca - Atlético 2X 1.1 - 1.2
Empoli - Fiorentina 2X 0.9 - 1.1
Lille - Paris SG 2X 0.8 - 0.9
Le Mans - Monaco 1X 1.1 - 1.0
Nacional - V. Setúbal 1X 0.9 - 0.9
Sochaux - Valenciennes 1X 1.1 - 1.0
Freamunde - Olhanense 2X 1.1 - 1.1
V. Guimarães - Benfica 2X 0.9 - 1.0
U. Leiria - Académica X 1.0 - 1.0
Energie Cottbus - Bayer Leverkusen X 1.4 - 1.4

I hope you enjoy these results. Off course, you shall remember that these are only predictions and i cannot give any warranty about the results.

I will not accept any responsability about the use of this information, because it's posted here only as a curiosity.


January 21, 2008

Black Monday or Black Tuesday?

Wow! Today was a bad day to those who are invested in financial markets. 20 years after the 1987 black monday crash, markets crashed again on Monday.

This time the crash started with important losses in asian markets (nikkey dropped about 3%, hang seng 5% ...). Movements like these also occurred last week without such a consequence. But today was different. I believe that technicall signals started this crash. As the main indexes started to enter in the oficial bear market territory (20% bellow previous high) nobody stopped the free fall of ... Our investments value.

From my point of view one of the most interesting detail of this crash is the fact that US markets were closed due to Martin Luther King holiday. This will, in my opinion, be the most important fact. Because US markets didn't fall today, they shall adjust tomorrow. But with everyone knowing that markets will fall, thousands or millions of sell orders will enter in the markets and i can't figure why someone will buy anything. Those investors that wish to buy some stocks will wait that panic start to attract even more sell orders... The few investors with desire to buy are smart, and are few so they will tacit collude to wait for the BIG CRASH OF THIS BLACK TUESDAY 2008.

As i posted in my last message, smart investors should be aware that interesting opportunitties are created in the panic environments. Investors with money to invest, with longer term horizons and risk averse can start looking for pearls in this mess. But don't try to be the first to buy, or to be the one who bought at the lower price of the market. I don't believe in a sharp recovery of the market, so take your time. Even if market recovers 5%, more sells will be sent to the markets and kill any rocket upside of prices.

Off course, all these comments reflect only my opinion and view, and are not any recommendation to buy or sell stocks. I will not accept any responsability for any losses you get by following my view of the markets.

January 19, 2008

Finance & Business - week 04/2008

This is my first weekly about world finacial markets and business. Is my wish to write some summary about these subjects every week.

In the previous weeks I have been in holidays at grandvalira, spain (http://www.grandvalira.com), playing ski at Paz de la Casa. While I was in the middle of white mountains, markets dived in dark valleys. These have been the worst first weeks of year since i had born in 1977. At the end of this 4th week, markets decreased about 5%, accumulating a decrease of 10% year to date. Even more dangerous is the velocity that main world indices are approaching the 20% fall from previous high level, that signals the beggining of a bear market. All the main world indices had broken most of the more important technical supports and I believe that in the next weeks we will see STOXX 600 and S&P 500 enter in bear market territory.

During this perios large caps are outperforming small caps, that is why STOXX50 and EURO STOXX50 are technically healthier, but in the emergence of the bear market, this indexes shall be affected too.

So, is it time to panic? No! In opposition to others bear markets, this time the starting point is not the end of an huge bull, with stocks priced 40x earnings. At this time, stocks are much cheaper than they were for instance in 2000 bubble. So we shall not assist to a fall of 40% of the markets. At this time, a correction was needed because economy is being affect by the financial crisis, probably US economy will touch recession levels. But we will not assist to a large depression, and the recession effect is mostly discounted by the markets at these levels. I believe that today the financial markets are fairly priced. During the next next 2 weeks we wiil probably see one of the well known inefficiencies of the markets: overreaction.

When we look to the TICK INDEX, a measure of upticks trades subtracted by downtick trades we can have a perception of the panic that is already present in the market. This situation will create good buy opportunities since overstressed investors are not so rational as the efficient market hipotesys assumes. So, when buying stocks during the next 2 weeks people should not be waiting to profit from these trades in the short term, but in a year from now these investment should provide one interesting return risk adjusted reward.

In the short term investors can suffer even more if the chinese financial market bubble burst in consequence of the current panic levels. In the other hand, falling oil prices should be reflected by lower inflation concerns and gold and silver shall fall. Copper shall also fall due to lower economic activity. In order to find nice investment opportunities look in the major loosers for stocks not dependent of US economy, not leveraged and not correlated with oil, metalls and other commoditties prices. Why not some european financials?

These times can also be a great opportunity to increase or take new positions in some emerging markets, with brasil and india being some of the most promisig BRICs.

These are my ideias at the present time. I share it with you in order to test them. I wish you have different view and debate this themes with me. My opinion is not any recomendation to buy or sell stocks and i will not accept any responsability one losses people can get, by using information on this blog!

January 18, 2008

Next week football results

Here are some new forecasts for the comming footbal week matches:

You can read the table using the following instructions:
- first column signal games where confidence on prediction is higher with an arrow '=>';
- second and third columns are the home and visitor teams names;
- Fourth column gives the most likely outcomes (1- wins home team, 2- wins visitors team, X- tied game);
- last columns tells you the predicted final score, which should be rounded to integer to make sense, because you will never get 1,5 goals. But a team with 0,8 will have more odds to score than other with only 0.6.



Marítimo - Boavista 1 1.4 - 0.5
U. Leiria - Académica X 1.0 - 1.0
Sporting - FC Porto 1X 1.5 - 1.2
Sp. Braga - Belenenses 1 1.3 - 0.8
Naval - E. Amadora 1X 1.1 - 0.9
Nacional - V. Setúbal 1X 0.9 - 0.9
V. Guimarães - Benfica 2X 0.9 - 1.0
Leixões - P. Ferreira 1 1.5 - 0.8
Freamunde - Olhanense 2X 1.1 - 1.1
Aves - Beira-Mar 1 1.6 - 1.0
Vizela - Estoril 1 1.9 - 1.0
Gil Vicente - Trofense 1X 1.2 - 0.8
Fátima - Varzim 1X 1.4 - 1.2
Portimonense - Rio Ave 2 1.1 - 1.7
Gondomar - Feirense 1X 0.9 - 0.8
Santa Clara - Penafiel 1X 1.3 - 0.9
Fulham - Arsenal 2 1.1 - 1.7
Liverpool - Aston Villa 1X 1.7 - 1.4
Newcastle - Bolton 1 1.8 - 1.1
Birmingham - Chelsea 2X 1.0 - 1.2
Portsmouth - Derby 1 1.7 - 0.5
Wigan - Everton 2X 1.2 - 1.3
Reading - Manchester United 2X 1.0 - 1.4
Blackburn - Middlesbrough 1 1.4 - 0.9
Tottenham - Sunderland 1 2.6 - 1.5
Manchester City - West Ham 1X 1.3 - 1.0
Atlético - Real Madrid 1X 1.6 - 1.6
Osasuna - Athletic 1X 1.3 - 1.2
Almería - Deportivo 1X 1.1 - 1.0
Valladolid - Espanyol 2X 1.4 - 1.5
Barcelona - Racing 1 2.1 - 0.7
Getafe - Sevilha 1X 1.4 - 1.0
Villarreal - Valencia 1X 1.5 - 1.4
Levante - Maiorca 2X 1.4 - 1.6
Saragoça - Murcia 1 2.0 - 1.1
Betis - Recreativo 1 1.7 - 1.2
Fiorentina - Torino 1 1.8 - 1.0
Génova - Atalanta 1X 1.3 - 1.2
Inter - Parma 1 2.0 - 0.5
Juventus - Sampdoria 1 2.2 - 0.6
Nápoles - Lazio 1 1.4 - 0.9
Palermo - Siena 1 1.5 - 0.9
Reggina - Cagliari 1 1.7 - 1.0
Udinese - Milan 2 1.4 - 2.0
Livorno - Empoli 1X 1.5 - 1.0
AS Roma - Catania 1 2.0 - 1.2
Schalke 04 - Estugarda 1 1.8 - 1.0
Hansa Rostock - Bayern Munique 2 0.9 - 1.4
Energie Cottbus - Bayer Leverkusen X 1.4 - 1.4
Werder Bremen - Bochum 1 2.4 - 1.1
Hamburgo - Hannover 96 1 1.5 - 1.0
Hertha Berlim - Eintracht Frankfurt 1X 1.5 - 1.1
Arminia Bielefeld - Wolfsburgo 1X 1.9 - 1.5
Karlsruhe - Nuremberga 1 1.6 - 1.1
Duisburgo - Borussia Dortmund 1X 1.6 - 1.4
Toulouse - Caen 1X 0.9 - 0.6
Lens - Lyon 2X 1.1 - 1.4
Le Mans - Bordéus 1X 1.1 - 0.9
Metz - Monaco 2X 0.8 - 1.2
Saint Étienne - Rennes 1 1.3 - 0.6
Marselha - Valenciennes 1 1.3 - 0.6
Auxerre - Estrasburgo 1 1.5 - 0.9
Sochaux - Lille 2X 0.8 - 1.2
Lorient - Paris SG 2X 0.8 - 0.9
Nice - Nancy 1X 1.1 - 0.7

I hope you enjoy these results. Off course, you shall remember that these are only predictions and i cannot give any warranty about the results.

I will not accept any responsability about the use of this information, because it's posted here only as a curiosity.




January 1, 2008

Happy new year!

Today's day is equal to all other days of the year. It worths about 0.3% of anual GDP as any other day. Althought, there is not mutch to say about it.

Markets were closed. Shops were closed too. Everything was so closed that i didn't receive any e-mail. It seems that even spammers toke this day to rest.

So, why should i disrespect all this peace and calm world with the noise of my words? I will respect the dead of 2007. Let it rest in peace. I must say that 2007 was great to me. I will not forget it, but now we are in 2008 and this is the year we shall live in! Come with me and enjoy this trip along 2008.

HAVE FUN!

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