The key events in EMEA next week will be the rate decisions in Turkey and South Africa. We expect the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 7.0%. This is also the consensus expectation. At the same time we expect the Turkish Central Bank (TCMB) to cut its key policy rate by another 25bp to 6.50%. We think that this cut will mark the end of the Turkish monetary easing cycle and while we do not expect the TCMB to announce the end of the easing, it will most likely twist its communication in a less dovish direction, which might add moderate upside risk to Turkish market rates and yield next week.
New Europe Weekly, Week 47