1) S&P 500 +0.2% after the EU close - closing -0.0% at 1093. Healthcare (+0.5%) outperforming. Financials (-0.5%) underperforming.
4) China exports & imports growth somewhat below expectations - likely partly due to Mid-Autumn festival being in October this year vs. September last year. Exports growth came in at -13.8% yoy, largely in line with the consensus forecast of -13.2% yoy. Imports growth came in at -6.4% yoy, below consensus of -1.0% yoy. The trade surplus widened to US$24.0 billion, above consensus of US$19.1 billion. The data is very strong in light of the fewer number of working days in October resulting from the shift of the Mid-Autumn Festival which was in October in 2009 and in September in 2008. We believe they suggest that domestic demand growth remains robust and external demand growth has been improving as well.
6) The composition of the absolute decline in US retail sales since January 2007 - i.e. the composition of the
7) Default rates for US speculative grade debt now set to peak near 14% in November, vs. expectations of 20% at the height of the panic. FT: Moody’s notes that the pace of defaults has slowed, with only eight corporate debt issuers that it rates failing in October, the lowest monthly total this year. The ratings agency now forecasts that default rates for US junk or speculative grade debt will peak near 14 per cent in November, before falling back swiftly to 4 per cent in a year’s time – a far milder turnout than the one-in-five scenario priced in at the height of the panic.