Dollar Weakens on Concern Crude Oil Prices May Prolong Slowdown
By Ye Xie and Candice Zachariahs
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell the most against the euro in a week on concern crude oil prices may prolong the slowdown of the U.S. economy.
"The yen advanced against the euro and the dollar after U.S. stocks retreated, prompting investors to shed holdings of higher-yielding assets funded by loans in Japan. South Korea's won rose against all of its major counterparts on speculation the government intervened to boost the currency."
"``The resilience of oil prices makes an extended rally in the dollar unlikely,'' said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York."
"Against the euro, the dollar fell 0.5 percent to $1.5743 at 3:04 p.m. in New York, from $1.5670 yesterday. The yen increased 0.7 percent to 106.78 per dollar, from 107.50. Japan's currency rose 0.2 percent to 168.12 per euro, from 168.45."
"The dollar has fallen 11 percent against the euro since September, when the Federal Reserve made the first of seven reductions in its target lending rate, now 2 percent, to prevent the housing slump and credit market losses from plunging the U.S. economy into a recession."
"European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, today that the level of inflation is ``worrying.'' He also said it's important for the U.S. to repeat support for a strong currency."
Crude Oil Gains
"Crude oil for August delivery increased as much as 1.7 percent to $138.28 a barrel today after a U.S. Energy Department report showed a bigger-than-forecast decline in inventories. Iran carried out a test of a missile capable of hitting Israel, Iranian state television reported, raised concern that Israel will attack the Mideast's second-biggest oil producer. Prices are 90 percent higher than from a year ago."
"The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have moved in the same direction 90 percent of the time in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the correlation of their value."
"``We've not broken the back of the current uptrend of oil prices so far,'' said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist in New York at Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodial bank, with more than $23 trillion in assets under administration. ``That's not favorable for the dollar.''"
"The Canadian currency increased 0.9 percent to C$1.0106 per U.S. dollar, and the Norwegian krone rose 0.3 percent to 5.1163 versus the dollar. Commodities such as crude oil and gold account for 54 percent of Canada's exports, while Norway is the world's fifth-largest oil supplier."
Dollar Index
"The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, fell 0.5 percent to 72.640."
The yen increased 0.5 percent to 10.372 against the Mexican peso and 0.4 percent to 66.494 versus the Brazilian real on speculation a 1 percent drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index reduced carry trades.
"In such a trade, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates and invest in high-yielding assets elsewhere. Japan's 0.5 percent target lending rate compares with 12.25 percent in Brazil and 7.75 percent in Mexico."
"``The weakness that we've seen in equities recently undermines the carry trade and gives the yen a bit of a boost,'' said Woolfolk."
"South Korea's won strengthened beyond 1,000 per dollar for the first time in two months. The government probably sold more than $12 billion dollars in exchange for the won since the end of May to support the local currency and stem inflation, according to Jung Chan Ho, a foreign-exchange dealer at Shinhan Bank, a unit of South Korea's second-biggest financial group. The won increased as much as 3.5 percent to 996.62 per dollar."
Rand's Advance
"South Africa's rand climbed 1.1 percent to 7.6544 per dollar, a one-month high, on speculation a proposed merger between MTN Group Ltd., Africa's biggest mobile-phone company, and India's Reliance Communications Ltd. may boost foreign capital inflows into South Africa."
"Traders increased bets that the ECB will raise borrowing costs again to curtail 4 percent annual inflation, twice policy makers' 2 percent target. The implied rate on the December Euribor interest-rate futures contract rose 0.02 percentage point to 5.12 percent."
Trichet said last week that he has ``no bias'' for monetary policy after increasing the ECB's main refinancing rate by a quarter-percentage point to 4.25 percent.
"The yield advantage of two-year German bunds over comparable-maturity Treasury notes rose to a one-week high of 1.97 percentage points, making the European securities more attractive to investors."
"``The risk is that the ECB will raise interest rates again,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``That will keep the euro relatively supported.''"
"The dollar has traded in a range of about $1.56 to $1.59 since the ECB's decision on July 3. The implied volatility on options for the dollar against six major currencies fell to 9.82 percent today, close to the lowest since Feb. 27."
To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net; Candice Zachariahs in New York at Czachariahs1@bloomberg.net
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 15:06 EDT"
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Eurozone First Quarter GDP Final Estimate: Summary (Table)
By Ainhoa Goyeneche
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Following is the summary of the first quarter GDP estimate from Eurostat in Luxembourg:
========================================================================
----- Latest release ----- -- Previous Release --
1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q
2008 2007 2007 2007 2008 2007 2007 2007
========================================================================
------------------------ [bn:WBTKR=EUGNEMUQ:IND] QoQ [] -----------------------
GDP 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4%
H'hold spending 0.2% -0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% -0.1% 0.4% 0.6%
Govt spending 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3%
Gross fixed
capital formation 1.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 1.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0%
Exports 1.9% 0.4% 2.0% 1.0% 1.9% 0.3% 2.2% 0.9%
Imports 2.0% -0.2% 2.4% 0.3% 1.8% -0.3% 2.4% 0.2%
========================================================================
----- Latest release ----- -- Previous Release --
1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q
2008 2007 2007 2007 2008 2007 2007 2007
========================================================================
----------------------- [bn:WBTKR=EUGNEMUY:IND] YoY [] -----------------------
GDP 2.1% 2.2% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.6%
H'hold spending 1.2% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8%
Govt spending 1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 2.3% 1.4% 2.0% 2.6% 2.4%
Gross fixed
capital formation 3.5% 3.1% 3.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.2% 3.9% 3.8%
Exports 5.5% 4.4% 7.1% 6.0% 5.4% 4.4% 7.2% 5.9%
Imports 4.5% 4.0% 6.1% 5.2% 4.3% 4.0% 6.1% 5.2%
========================================================================
Notes:
Percentage change compared to the same quarter of the
previous quarter is calculated from seasonally adjusted data.
Percentage change compared to the same quarter of the
previous year is calculated from non-seasonally adjusted data.
SOURCE: Eurostat
To contact the reporter on this story: Ainhoa Goyeneche in Madrid at agoyenechecu@bloomberg.net
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 05:00 EDT"
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"Italian Stocks Update: Aedes, Atlantia, Fiat, Pirelli, Tenaris "
By Francesca Cinelli
"July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Italy's S&P/MIB Index added 280, or 1 percent, to 28,586. Futures expiring in September rose 288, or 1 percent, to 28,840."
The following are among the most active stocks on the Italian market today. Share symbols are in parentheses.
"A2A SpA (A2A IM), Italy's largest municipal utility, pared gains, losing 0.3 cents, or 0.1 percent, to 2.34 euros. Goldman Sachs cut its price estimate on the stock to 2.8 euros from 3.35 euros."
"Aedes SpA (AE IM), a real estate and fund-management company, climbed to the highest in more than a week, adding 7.8 cents, or 6.6 percent, to 1.25 euros. The company is in talks with Dubai Investment Group about possible asset sales, financial newspaper MF reported, without saying where it got the information. ``New offers could support a stock price recovery,'' Pierluigi Amoruso, an analyst at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking, wrote in a research report."
"Atlantia SpA (ATL IM), Europe's largest toll-highway operator, rose for the first time in three days, adding 56.2 cents, or 3.1 percent, to 18.57 euros. HSBC cut its price estimate on the stock to 25 euros from 28 euros and kept its ``overweight'' rating. Royal Bank of Scotland reiterated its ``buy'' rating on Atlantia. ``Any technical weakness could provide buying opportunities,'' RBS analysts including Christian Cowley wrote in a note."
"Buongiorno SpA (BNG IM), the Italian provider of services for mobile phones that bought U.K. rival iTouch Ventures Ltd. last year, fell to a record, losing 15 cents, or 14 percent, to 95 cents. Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to ``sell'' from ``neutral.''"
"Fiat SpA (F IM), Italy's largest manufacturer, added 17.4 cents, or 1.8 percent, to 10.04 euros. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Fiat said yesterday they'll join forces to build cars on a common chassis to reduce development costs and help the Italian company reintroduce its Alfa Romeo brand in the U.S. ``Further cooperation might include the common development of engines, given Fiat's strong position in this area via its Fiat Powertrain Technologies division,'' Christian Breitsprecher and Jens Schattner, analysts at Sal. Oppenheim, wrote in a note."
"Kerself SpA (KRS IM), Italy's biggest producer of solar power cells, gained 20 cents, or 2 percent, to 10 euros. The company formed a partnership with Avelar Energy, a unit of Zurich-based Renova. The agreement will have a positive effect on the order backlog, Intermonte analysts wrote in a research report."
"Pirelli & C SpA (PC IM), Europe's third-largest tiremaker, rose for the first time in five sessions, adding 1.4 cents, or 3.4 percent, to 42.9 cents. The company completed the acquisition of Speed SpA, owner of a 39 percent stake in Pirelli's tire business."
"Pirelli & C Real Estate SpA (PRS IM), Italy's largest property manager, climbed 54.5 cents, or 4.8 percent, to 12 euros. Pirelli & C Spa owns a 58 percent stake in Pirelli & C Real Estate."
"Tenaris SA (TEN IM), the world's biggest maker of seamless steel tubes for pipelines, fell for a second day, losing 31 cents, or 1.5 percent, to 20.44 euros."
"Saipem SpA (SPM IM), Europe's largest oil-field services contractor by market value, shed 18 cents, or 0.7 percent, to 26.43 euros. Oil stocks were the worst performers among the 18 industry groups in Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index today."
"UniCredit SpA (UCG IM), Italy's largest bank, rose 9.3 cents, or 2.6 percent, to 3.66 euros. Banking stocks were the best performers among the 18 industry groups in Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index today."
To contact the reporter on this story: Francesca Cinelli in Milan at fcinelli@bloomberg.net
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 07:14 EDT"
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Indian Rupee Rises as Stock Gains May Help Slow Capital Outflow
By Anoop Agrawal and Anil Varma
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- India's rupee rose on speculation capital outflows will slow as the nation's benchmark share index advanced by the most in a week.
"The rupee strengthened for a second day as the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, was poised to snap a seven-week loss after rising 4.6 percent today. Asian stocks rose the most in three weeks after JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s chief executive officer said credit-market losses will ease and oil prices dropped almost 6 percent from an all-time high of $145.85 a barrel reached on July 3."
"``The rupee is following the positive developments in the Asian equity markets,'' said P.V. Rao, a currency trader at IndusInd Bank Ltd. in Mumbai."
"The rupee rose 0.3 percent to 43.135 a dollar at the 5 p.m. close of trading in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It may climb to 43 in the next week, Rao said."
"The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose as much as 2 percent, the most in three months. Funds based abroad were net sellers of Indian equities on three of the six trading days this month, according to the latest data provided by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. They sold a net $6.6 billion of local shares in 2008, compared with a record $17.2 billion in net purchases last year."
Cheaper Oil
"The rupee also gained after crude oil had the biggest two- day decline since March, spurring speculation India's import costs will decrease. The South Asian nation imports 70 percent of the oil it needs annually."
"``I expect the rupee to gain support as crude oil's decline reduces dollar demand,'' IndusInd's Rao said."
"Crude oil in New York fell 3.8 percent yesterday, adding to a 2.7 percent loss the day before. India's oil imports averaged $7.8 billion a month this year, compared with $5.45 billion in 2007, government data show."
To contact the reporter on this story: Anoop Agrawal in Mumbai at aagrawal8@bloomberg.net; Anil Varma in Mumbai at avarma3@bloomberg.net.
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 08:10 EDT"
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"French Stocks: Credit Agricole, Dexia, Esker, Societe Generale "
By Adria Cimino
"July 9 (Bloomberg) -- France's CAC 40 Index rose 64.05, or 1.5 percent, to 4,339.66 in Paris, gaining for a second time this week. The SBF 120 Index added 1.6 percent."
The following stocks rose or fell in Paris. Stock symbols are in parentheses.
"Banks climbed after JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said losses in credit markets will ease. Dexia SA (DX FP), the world's biggest lender to local governments, gained 6.8 percent to 9.46 euros. Credit Agricole SA (ACA FP), France's second-largest bank by assets, advanced 5.3 percent to 12.75 euros. Societe Generale SA (GLE FP), the country's third largest, rose 4.5 percent to 55.01 euros."
"Esker SA (ESK FP) jumped 30 cents, or 7.7 percent, to 4.20 euros, gaining for a second time this week. The supplier of fax software to Whirlpool Corp. and Adecco SA said it signed a partnership with Fujitsu Europe Ltd. The companies will work together to help companies eliminate paper from their management processes, Esker said."
"JCDecaux SA (DEC FP) rose 72 cents, or 5 percent, to 15.27 euros, its biggest gain in two months. The world's second- largest seller of outdoor advertising won the billboard contract for Algiers airport. It didn't give financial terms."
"Netgem SA (NTG FP) slipped 8 cents, or 4.7 percent, to 1.62 euros, for the biggest decline since March 17. The supplier of set-top television boxes for Neuf Cegetel said second-quarter sales fell 1.4 percent to 17 million euros ($26.7 million)."
To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 12:35 EDT"
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Indian Rupee Rises on Speculation Stock Gains to Spur Inflows
By Anoop Agrawal
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- India's rupee rose on speculation gains in Asian stocks will encourage investors to reduce sales of local shares.
"The rupee rose for a second day, its best run in almost two weeks, after crude oil prices fell the most in three months yesterday, reducing the demand for dollars from Indian refiners. Asia's third-largest economy meets almost three-quarters of its energy needs from imports. Overseas funds sold more local shares than they bought this year as accelerating inflation threatened to erode the value of the returns from their investment."
"``The rupee is following the positive developments in the Asian markets,'' said P.V. Rao, a currency trader at IndusInd Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. ``I expect it to gain further support as crude oil's fall is reducing dollar demand.''"
"The rupee rose 0.4 percent to 43.10 per dollar as of 9:35 a.m. in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It may rise to as high as 43 in the next week, Rao said."
"The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose as much as 2 percent, the most in three months. Funds based abroad were net sellers of Indian equities on three of the five trading days this month, according to data provided by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. They sold a net $6.5 billion of local shares in 2008, compared with a record $17.2 billion in net purchases last year."
"Crude oil for August delivery was at $136.14 a barrel in after hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It tumbled $5.33, or 3.8 percent, yesterday."
To contact the reporter on this story: Anoop Agrawal in Mumbai at aagrawal8@bloomberg.net.
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 00:34 EDT"
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Chicago Soybeans Rise After Biggest Two-Day Decline Since March
By Jae Hur
"July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans climbed after posting the biggest two-day decline since March as commodities, led by crude oil and corn, tumbled on escalating concern that the sagging global economy will cut demand, prompting investors to sell."
"Soybeans fell 6.2 percent in the past two days, the biggest such drop since the end of March, while corn plunged 7 percent and crude oil slumped 6.4 percent. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index dropped 4.8 percent in the past three days. Raw materials lost after their best first half in 35 years."
"The U.S. economy has sagged amid credit-market and housing slides. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index, which fell to its lowest since November 2006 yesterday, has dropped 17 percent this year as record oil prices and credit-related losses offset central banks' efforts to bolster confidence in financial markets."
"``It's a technical correction,'' said Nicholas Chung, senior manager of the commodity derivatives team at Korea Development Bank in Seoul. ``But the rally will be short-lived as commodities are still in the middle of erasing some froth created by speculative interest.''"
"Soybean for November delivery added as much as 26 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $15.555 a bushel in after-hours trading on the Chicago Board of Trade and stood at $15.415 as of midday in London. Most-active futures have risen 77 percent in a year, reaching a record $16.3675 on July 3."
"Corn for December delivery fell 9.5 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $7.13 a bushel, after losing 7 percent in the previous two days. The price has doubled in 12 months, reaching a record $7.9925 on June 27, as global reserves were forecast to fall to a 24-year low before the start of the U.S. harvest later this year."
Alternative Investment
"The declines were partly because of falling energy costs that could reduce demand for biofuels made from the grain, said Kazuhiko Saito, strategist at Interes Capital Management Co."
"Declines in main portfolios, such as stocks and bonds, prompted investors to exit commodities to make up for the losses, Chung said."
"``The fundamentals in commodities still remain strong as the price run-up has been driven by rising demand amid tight supplies,'' Chung said. ``We may see another decline in prices, but we also expect good buying interest at any price dips.''"
"With declining equity markets, the dollar's strength has also put pressure on grains and other commodities, Saito said."
"Record prices for fuel, corn, wheat, copper and other raw materials are leading oil explorers, metal producers and farmers to increase supplies."
"The weighted UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,632 yesterday. The gauge, which measures 26 futures prices, reached a record 1,723 on July 3."
Wheat Gains
"Wheat for September delivery rose 0.5 cent, or 0.1 percent, to $8.37 a bushel. Prices reached a record $13.495 on Feb. 27 as world farmers planted more to take advantage of higher prices."
Wheat gained today as some investors bet dry weather has damaged the spring crop in the northern U.S. Great Plains. It was also supported by speculation that demand for the grain to feed livestock will increase as an alternative to high-cost corn.
"South Korea, the world's third-biggest corn buyer, bought as much as 330,000 tons of feed wheat yesterday as a cheaper alternative to corn, two people familiar with the purchases said."
"Egypt plans to buy at least 80,000 metric tons of wheat at a tender today, while Japan bought 128,000 tons of milling wheat, including 61,000 tons from the U.S."
To contact the reporter on this story: Jae Hur in Singapore at jhur1@bloomberg.net
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 07:19 EDT"
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"French Stocks: Air France, Credit Agricole, Dexia and JCDecaux "
By Adria Cimino
"July 9 (Bloomberg) -- France's CAC 40 Index rose 48.39, or 1.1 percent, to 4,324 at 9:34 a.m. in Paris, gaining for a second time this week. The SBF 120 Index added 1.2 percent."
The following stocks rose or fell in Paris. Stock symbols are in parentheses.
"Banks climbed after JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said losses in credit markets will ease. Dexia SA (DX FP), the world's biggest lender to local governments, gained 4 percent to 9.21 euros. Credit Agricole SA (ACA FP), France's second-largest bank by assets, advanced 3.2 percent to 12.50 euros. Societe Generale SA (GLE FP), the country's third largest, rose 2.3 percent to 53.88 euros."
"Air France-KLM Group (AF FP) added 34 cents, or 2.2 percent, to 15.56 euros, gaining for a third day. Europe's biggest airline will raise fuel surcharges by 2 euros per segment on French flights and by as much as 14 euros per segment on international routes from July 10."
"JCDecaux SA (DEC FP) rose 26 cents, or 1.8 percent, to 14.81 euros, rebounding from two days of losses. The world's second-largest seller of outdoor advertising won the billboard contract for Algiers airport. It didn't give financial terms."
"Netgem SA (NTG FP) slipped 6 cents, or 3.5 percent, to 1.64 euros, its biggest drop in a month. The supplier of set-top television boxes for Neuf Cegetel said second-quarter sales fell 1.4 percent to 17 million euros ($26.7 million)."
"Ubisoft Entertainment SA (UBI FP) increased 65 cents, or 1.1 percent, to 58.25 euros, gaining for a second time this week. Europe's second-largest video-game maker bought Montreal- based Hybride Technologies to add an estimated 6 million to 7 million euros in annual sales."
To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 03:37 EDT"
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"Natural Gas Is Steady as Dollar Falls Against Euro, Oil Gains "
By Mario Parker
"July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas in New York was little changed euro advanced against the U.S. dollar, increasing the appeal of commodities as an investment alternative, and crude oil rose."
The dollar fell and oil prices increased for the first time in three days after Iran said it carried out a test of a long- range missile capable of hitting Israel and supplies fell more than analysts expected.
"``I expect the oil inventory report to drive us for the rest of the day,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``After the big sell-off, natural gas is just above water.''"
"Natural gas for August delivery rose 2.1 cents to $12.389 per million British thermal units at 10:45 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas closed at $13.577 on July 3, the highest price since Dec. 21, 2005. Futures are 65 percent higher so far this year."
"Crude oil for August delivery rose $1.52, or 1.1 percent, to $137.56 a barrel in New York. Oil reached a record $145.85 on July 3."
"Oil advanced after a U.S. government report showed supplies fell 5.84 million barrels to 293.9 million barrels in the week ended July 4. Inventories were forecast to drop 2.1 million barrels, according to the median of analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey."
"Against the euro, the dollar fell 0.4 percent to $1.574 at 10:46 a.m. in New York, from $1.5670 yesterday."
"The dollar has fallen 10 percent against the euro since September, when the Federal Reserve made the first of seven reductions in its target rate for overnight bank loans to prevent the housing slump and credit market losses from plunging the U.S. economy into a recession."
To contact the reporter on this story: Mario Parker in Chicago at mparker22@bloomberg.net
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 10:47 EDT"
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Canada's S&P/TSX Erases Gain as Royal Bank Falls; Potash Rises
By John Kipphoff
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's main stock index erased a gain as Royal Bank of Canada led a drop in financial companies on concern they face further credit losses. Commodity producers including Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. advanced.
"The Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index slipped 0.2 percent to 13,778.98 at 2:24 p.m. in Toronto, after climbing as much as 1.2 percent earlier today. Almost three stocks advanced for every two that dropped."
"Royal Bank slid 1.5 percent to C$45.32. The nation's largest lender by assets may record pretax writedowns of as much as C$1.5 billion ($1.48 billion) in the third quarter, on widening credit spreads and deteriorating subprime investments, Genuity Capital Markets analyst Mario Mendonca said in a note."
"Potash Corp., the world's biggest maker of crop nutrients by market value, gained 1 percent to C$221.50."
To contact the reporter on this story: John Kipphoff in Toronto at jkipphoff@bloomberg.net.
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 14:32 EDT"
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Mexican Peso Gains as CPI Data Adds to Rate-Rise Speculation
By Hugh Collins
"July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico's peso gained after the central bank reported that inflation quickened last month, adding to speculation the central bank will raise its benchmark lending rate for a second time this year."
"The peso advanced 0.2 percent to 10.2962 pesos per dollar at 10:48 a.m. New York time, from 10.3155 yesterday. The currency has appreciated 5.9 percent this year, buoyed by the widening gap between U.S. and Mexican benchmark interest rates. The gap grew to 5.75 percentage points, the biggest since September 2005, after Banco de Mexico raised its benchmark rate a quarter- percentage point to 7.75 percent on June 20."
"``We still expect the central bank to raise rates'' a quarter-point this month, said Jon Harrison, a currency analyst with Dresdner Kleinwort in London. Harrison predicted the peso would remain at about 10.29 pesos per dollar ``with a bias toward gradual appreciation.''"
"Annual inflation quickened to 5.26 percent in June from 4.95 percent in May, the central bank said today. The central bank seeks to keep inflation at 4 percent or lower."
"Yields on the government's benchmark 10 percent bonds due December 2024 fell 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 9.36 percent. The bond's price gained 0.41 centavo to 105.34 centavos per peso, according to Banco Santander SA."
"``There were no surprises today, and that gives the market more confidence about inflation expectations,'' said Tomas Noriega, a fixed-income analyst with Monex Casa de Bolsa SA in Mexico City."
To contact the reporter on this story: Hugh Collins in Mexico City at Hcollins8@bloomberg.net
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 10:59 EDT"
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"Canadian Dollar Gains the Most in a Week on Oil, Housing Report "
By Jamie McGee
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar rose the most in a week after oil gained and a report showed new-home starts last month exceeded economists' forecasts.
Canada's dollar increased against 14 of the 16 most-active currencies and has strengthened 0.9 percent so far this week as oil advanced after a two-day decline. The nation has the largest crude deposits outside the Middle East. Commodities account for about half of the country's exports.
"``The Canadian dollar is trading with a stronger bias on the back of higher oil prices,'' said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. ``What's been surprising is the dollar hasn't risen alongside higher oil prices this year. It's probably playing a little catch-up.''"
"The Canadian currency rose 0.9 percent to C$1.0105 per U.S. dollar at 1:16 p.m. in Toronto, from C$1.0192 yesterday. It was the biggest gain since July 2. The currency earlier touched C$1.0098. One Canadian dollar buys 98.94 U.S. cents."
"Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as $2.24, or 1.7 percent, to $138.28 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange."
"The Canadian dollar will decline to C$1.06 by the first quarter of 2009, according to the median forecast of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News."
"The June total of 217,800 new-home starts on an annualized basis compares with a revised 227,700 in May, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said today in Ottawa. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 20 economists was for 216,000."
`Stronger Than Expected'
"``Housing starts were slightly stronger than expected,'' said David Bradley, director of foreign exchange trading at Scotia Capital in Toronto. ``We've seen crude bounce. The fundamentals are working in our favor. The currency hasn't been significantly following fundamentals recently. It's been following transactional flows.''"
"The loonie, as the currency is known because of the image of the bird on the one-dollar coin, has traded near parity with its U.S. counterpart this year. It touched a 2008 low of C$1.0379 on Jan. 22, and a high of 97.12 cents per U.S. dollar on Feb. 28."
"``The Canadian economy is continuing to do well on the domestic side,'' said David Watt, a senior currency strategist in Toronto at RBC Capital Markets. ``Housing is nowhere near the worry it is in the U.S. and the rest of the world. The risks seem tilted toward the Canadian dollar strengthening.''"
Resist an Increase
"Watt said the Bank of Canada will resist an interest-rate increase until early next year. Policy makers will leave the key rate unchanged when they meet on July 15, according to the median forecast of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News."
"The U.S. Federal Reserve on June 25 left its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent, ending a series of seven cuts since September. Canada's central bank unexpectedly left borrowing costs unchanged at 3 percent on June 10."
"Todd Elmer, currency strategist at Citigroup Global Markets in New York, said commodities, primarily oil, will further support the Canadian dollar."
"``The commodities' strength has shown few signs of unwinding, despite concerns over slower global growth,'' Elmer said."
"The 10-year bond's yield rose 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 3.70 percent."
The yield on the two-year government bond increased 1 basis point to 3.21 percent. The price of the 3.75 percent security due in June 2010 fell 3 cents to C$100.99.
The difference in yields between two- and 10-year securities has narrowed to 49 basis points from 81 basis points on June 5.
"The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yielded 16 basis points more than the comparable-maturity Canadian bond, narrowing from 39 basis points on June 25."
"Canadian government bonds have returned 3.3 percent in 2008, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index statistics. U.S. Treasuries returned 2.9 percent so far this year."
To contact the reporter on this story: Jamie McGee in New York at jmcgee8@bloomberg.net
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 13:17 EDT"
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Australian Dollar Falls on Home-Loans Data; N.Z. Dollar Rises
By Lilian Karunungan and Ron Harui
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar fell after a government report showed home-loan approvals slid by the most in eight years and a private-sector survey of consumer confidence dropped to the lowest since 1992. New Zealand's currency rose.
The Australian currency declined the most in almost four weeks against the New Zealand dollar as traders pared bets the central bank will raise interest rates from a 12-year high. Australia's dollar slid below 95 U.S. cents for the first time in almost three weeks as the slump in the number of loans granted to buy or build new homes declined four times as much as economists forecast in May.
"The weak ``economic trend is capping the Australian dollar at the moment,'' said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in Sydney."
"Australia's currency declined to 95.17 U.S. cents at 4:33 p.m. in Sydney from 95.23 cents in late Asian trading yesterday. It reached 94.77 cents, the weakest level since June 20. The Australian dollar fell 0.5 percent to NZ$1.2603, the biggest decline since June 12. New Zealand's dollar rose 0.4 percent to 75.41 U.S. cents."
"Home-loan approvals dropped 7.9 percent from April, when they declined a revised 4.2 percent, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. It was the fourth straight monthly decrease. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 21 economists was for a 2 percent drop in loan approvals."
Consumer Sentiment
"Australia's consumer sentiment index fell 6.7 percent from June to 79 points, according to a Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne Institute survey. That was the sixth straight reading of less than 100, showing pessimists outnumber optimists."
"Traders have assigned 24 percent odds to the Reserve Bank of Australia raising its 7.25 percent benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage point in the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group index based on trading in interest-rate swaps. The probabilities were 36 percent yesterday and 72 percent a week ago."
"The Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced against the yen as the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares rose 0.8 percent after the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 1.7 percent, encouraging investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded in Japan."
"The Australian dollar rose 0.4 percent to 102.13 yen from 101.72 yen. The New Zealand dollar climbed 0.9 percent, the most since May 16, to 80.96 yen."
"In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates, earning the spread between the borrowing and lending rate. The risk is that currency market moves erase those profits."
"The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are targets of the strategy because benchmark interest rates are 7.25 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand, while the benchmark rate is 0.5 percent in Japan."
`Risk Appetite'
"``Disappointing consumer confidence and home loans in Australia will, however, briefly frustrate the expected Aussie- yen rally,'' said Matthew Strauss, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto, a unit of Canada's largest bank, in a research note."
"Australian government bonds climbed for a fifth day. The yield on the two-year note fell 1 basis points to 6.69 percent. The price of the 5.25 percent bond maturing in August 2010 rose 0.025, or A$0.25 per A$1,000 face amount, to 97.225. Yields move inversely to prices."
"New Zealand government debt rose for a fifth day, with the yield on the 10-year note dropping 4 basis points to 6.24 percent. A basis point is equivalent to 0.01 percentage point."
To contact the reporter on this story: Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at lkarunungan@bloomberg.net; Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net;
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 05:12 EDT"
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Indian Bonds Gain After Oil's Biggest 2-Day Decline Since March
By Anil Varma
"July 9 (Bloomberg) -- India's 10-year bonds advanced, ending seven days of losses, as crude oil's biggest two-day decline since March eased concern inflation will quicken."
"Benchmark yields dropped from a seven-year high after oil in New York fell 3.8 percent yesterday, adding to a 2.7 percent loss the day before. The rate of inflation in India, which imports 70 percent of the oil it needs, tripled this year as the commodity jumped 42 percent. Bonds also gained on speculation yields near the highest since 2001 will attract investors."
"``The bond market has taken a breather because oil got cheaper,'' said S. Ananthanarayan, chief bond trader at Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd., a Mumbai-based primary dealer that underwrites government debt sales. ``A sustained decline in oil will help ease concerns about faster inflation and possibly persuade the central bank to skip any monetary action'' at its next scheduled meeting on July 29."
"The yield on the benchmark 8.24 percent note due April 2018 fell 1 basis point to 9.28 percent as of 11:04 a.m. in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price rose 0.07, or 7 paise per 100 rupee face amount, to 93.38."
"The 10-year bond may yield between 9.2 percent and 9.4 percent this week, Ananthanarayan said."
"Crude oil has declined more than 6 percent from an all-time high of $145.85 per barrel reached on July 3. A government report on July 4 showed India's inflation accelerated to 11.63 percent, the fastest since 1995, in the second week of June."
"The Reserve Bank of India increased its key overnight lending rate twice last month to curb price gains. The central bank raised the repurchase rate last on June 24 by 0.5 percentage point, the most since 2000, to 8.5 percent."
"The cost of benchmark interest-rate swaps, derivative contracts used to guard against and gain from rate fluctuations, decreased for a fifth day. The five-year fixed swap rate that investors must pay in exchange for receiving a floating rate declined to 9.62 percent from 9.67 percent yesterday."
To contact the reporter on this story: Anil Varma in Mumbai at avarma3@bloomberg.net.
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 01:42 EDT"
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"Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico: Latin America Bond, Currency Preview "
By Jamie McGee
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- The following events and economic reports may influence trading in Latin American local bonds and currencies today. Bond yields and exchange rates are from a previous session.
"Brazil: Monthly inflation rate likely accelerated 1.86 percent in June, compared with 1.88 percent in May, according the median estimate of 24 economists in a Bloomberg survey."
The Getulio Vargas Foundation is scheduled to release the report at 7 a.m. New York time.
The real fell 0.7 percent to 1.6120 per dollar.
"The yield on the country's zero-coupon bonds due January 2010 fell 19 basis points, or 0.19 percentage point to 15.18 percent, according to Banco Votrantim SA."
"Ecuador: Bonds tumbled after Finance Minister Fausto Ortiz resigned, renewing concern the government may default on about $10 billion of debt."
"The extra yield investors demand to own Ecuador's debt rather than U.S. Treasuries jumped 53 basis points, or 0.53 percentage point, to 6.64 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI Plus index. The so-called spread is the widest since March 20."
"Mexico: Consumer prices rose by 5.25 percent in the last 12 months through June, after a 4.95 percent increase in the year through May, according to the median estimate of 23 economists in a Bloomberg survey."
"The monthly inflation rate likely accelerated by 0.41 percent in June, from minus 0.11 percent in May, according to the median estimate of 25 economists in a Bloomberg survey."
The Bank of Mexico is scheduled to release the data at 10 a.m. New York time.
The peso rose 0.19 percent to 10.3155 per dollar.
"The yield on Mexico's benchmark 10 percent bonds due December 2024 fell 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 9.41 percent, according to Banco Santander SA."
To contact the reporter on this story: Jamie McGee in New York at jmcgee8@bloomberg.net
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 00:00 EDT"
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"U.S. Stock-Index Futures Gain; Alcoa, Wachovia Shares Advance "
By Eric Martin
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July 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures gained after Alcoa Inc. kicked off the second-quarter earnings season by reporting profit that topped analysts' estimates.
"Alcoa, the first Dow Jones Industrial Average company to post results, climbed as higher prices helped the aluminum producer limit a drop in profit. Wachovia Corp., the fourth- largest U.S. bank, rallied after Merrill Lynch & Co. said the company would be a ``good fit'' for JPMorgan Chase & Co. Stocks rose in Europe and Asia on speculation that losses at financial companies will ease and commodity prices will decline, reducing inflation and pressure on profit margins."
"Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 expiring in September added 3.7, or 0.3 percent, to 1,277.4 at 8:17 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 30 to 11,405. Nasdaq-100 Index futures rose 8 to 1,876.5."
"U.S. shares rallied yesterday, sending the S&P 500 to its steepest advance in a month. Banks and transportation companies led gains after JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s chief executive officer said the credit crisis will ease and oil posted its biggest drop since March."
"Alcoa climbed $1.26 to $33.59. The company posted second- quarter profit excluding certain items of 71 cents a share, topping the 65-cent average estimate of 17 analysts in a Bloomberg survey."
Wachovia added 57 cents to $16.11. Merrill said Wachovia's ``realistic'' acquisition value would be $16 to $20 a share and also raised its rating on the stock to ``neutral'' from ``underperform.''
Gains in futures were limited as oil rose for the first time this week as the dollar fell Iran test-fired a missile capable of reaching Israel.
"Crude for August delivery gained as much as $2.24, or 1.7 percent, to $137.78 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange."
To contact the reporter on this story: Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net.
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 08:17 EDT"
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Chile Economists Lift 2008 Inflation Forecast to 7.5% (Update1)
By Sebastian Boyd
"July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Chilean economists raised their inflation forecast for this year by 2 percentage points, a central bank survey of economists showed."
"Consumer prices will rise 7.5 percent this year, according to the median estimate of 36 economists in a survey carried out between July 2 and July 8. Economists had expected 5.5 percent inflation in last month's survey."
"Faster inflation will prompt the central bank to raise its target interest rate by half a percentage point tomorrow and by a further half point before the end of the year, the poll showed. Chile Central Bank President Jose De Gregorio increased rates by a half point at the last meeting in June as rising costs of oil and food spread in the economy."
"``We don't see how inflation can come down to lower levels by the end of the year,'' said Gabriel Casillas, an economist at UBS AG in Mexico City. ``Price rises have a future effect because once they go up inflation expectations are contaminated.''"
"Inflation accelerated to 9.5 percent in June, the highest since 1994."
Chile's central bank aims for inflation expectations inside its target range of between 2 percent and 4 percent over a two- year horizon. The median estimate of 31 economists in this month's survey was for inflation of 3.8 percent in June 2009.
The central bank published results of the survey on its Web site.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sebastian Boyd in Santiago at sboyd9@bloomberg.net
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 10:04 EDT"
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"German, French Exports Decline on Euro, Cooling Global Economy "
By Fergal O'Brien and Gabi Thesing
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Exports from Germany fell the most in almost four years in May and French shipments abroad also dropped as the stronger euro and a cooling global economy curbed demand.
"German sales abroad, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes, declined 3.2 percent from April, the biggest drop since June 2004, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. French exports fell 1.7 percent, the Trade Ministry in Paris said."
Exporters in the euro region's two largest economies are grappling with the currency's 15 percent appreciation against the dollar and an 18 percent gain against sterling in the past year. That's eroding competitiveness just as a U.S.-led global slowdown and record oil prices cool the world economy.
"``There was at first a north-south growth divide between euro-zone economies,'' said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group in Amsterdam. ``But it was only a matter of time before we saw the impact of the strong euro and the slowdown in the U.S. feed through to Germany and France.''"
"The decline in German exports was unexpected. Economists had forecast a gain of 0.5 percent, the median of 11 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The drop in French exports, coupled with an increase in imports, pushed the country's deficit to a record 4.74 billion euros ($7.43 billion), exceeding economists' 4 billion-euro estimate. The trade gap was 3.74 billion euros in April."
Target Dropped
"Renault SA, France's second-largest carmaker, today abandoned its sales goal for 2008 after deliveries rose 4.3 percent in the first half, less than half the rate forecast for the full year. Sales growth in the second half ``will depend to a large extent on economic and financial developments, still highly uncertain, and their impact on the main automotive markets,'' the Boulogne-Billancourt, France-based carmaker said."
"France, Europe's third-biggest economy, will grow 0.2 percent in the second quarter, the least in almost two years, Paris-based statistics office Insee predicted. The economy will stagnate in the third quarter."
"Growth is slowing globally after the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed, making banks reluctant to lend and driving up the cost of credit. In April, the International Monetary Fund forecast that world growth would ease to 3.7 percent this year from 4.9 percent in 2007."
"In Germany, manufacturing orders unexpectedly fell for the sixth straight month in May and industrial production declined for a third time, reports showed over the past week. Plant and machinery orders fell the most in three years in May, the VDMA machine makers association said on July 2."
"From a year earlier, German exports rose 2.5 percent, today's report showed. The trade surplus narrowed to 14.4 billion euros from 18.8 billion euros in April."
"``We can't expect much support from the export side,'' said Matthias Rubisch, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. ``We will only see slight gains in the coming months. Over the past few weeks, the economic outlook has considerably worsened.''"
To contact the reporters on this story: Fergal O'Brien in Dublin at fobrien@bloomberg.net; Gabi Thesing in Frankfurt at gthesing@bloomberg.net
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 04:49 EDT"
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Mexico's Peso Advances Ahead of June Consumer Price Report
By Hugh Collins
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico's peso advanced to its highest this month ahead of a central bank report that economists expect will show inflation quickened in June.
"The peso has strengthened the past five days as investors bet that a pickup in inflation will prompt the central bank to raise its benchmark 7.75 percent lending rate, a move that may lure more capital to the country's fixed-income market."
"``There's no doubt this keeps the central bank in the direction of further tightening,'' said Francisco Larios, chief emerging-markets economist with Decision Economics in Miami. ``That in turn tends to help the peso.''"
"The peso advanced 0.2 percent to at 10.2983 pesos per dollar, from 10.3155 yesterday at 8:49 a.m. New York time."
"Annual inflation climbed to 5.25 percent in June from 4.95 percent in May, according to the median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The central bank seeks to keep inflation at 4 percent or lower."
"The central bank last raised its key interest rate on June 20, pushing it up a quarter-percentage point from 7.5 percent as it said that inflation was ``worrying.'' Four days later, the bank reported that consumer prices rose 0.29 percent in the first half of June, almost twice as much as economists expected."
The central bank is slated to release the June consumer price report at 10 a.m. New York time.
"Yields on the government's benchmark 10 percent bonds due December 2024 fell 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 9.34 percent. The bond's price gained 0.59 centavo to 105.51 centavos per peso, according to Banco Santander SA."
To contact the reporter on this story: Hugh Collins in Mexico City at Hcollins8@bloomberg.net
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 09:03 EDT"
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Indian Bonds Fall as Central Bank May Act to Contain Inflation
By Anil Varma
"July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Indian bonds fell for an eighth day on speculation the central bank, which raised interest rates twice last month, will take additional steps to curb inflation."
"Yields on benchmark 10-year notes climbed to the highest level since 2001 as a report on July 11 may show inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since February 1995. India needs to take steps to curb demand and the nation will ``overcome the inflation problem,'' Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram told UTVi television channel in an interview yesterday. The Reserve Bank of India will meet next on July 29 to decide on borrowing costs."
"``Yields will remain volatile near their seven-year high as we approach the central bank's policy meeting,'' said S. Ananthanarayan, chief trader at Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd., a primary dealer that underwrites government debt sales in Mumbai."
"The yield on the benchmark 8.24 percent note due April 2018 rose 3 basis points to 9.32 percent at the 5:30 p.m. close of trading in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price dropped 0.16, or 16 paise per 100 rupee face amount, to 93.15. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point."
"The 10-year bond may yield between 9.2 percent and 9.4 percent this week, Ananthanarayan said."
"The central bank raised the benchmark repurchase rate last on June 24 by 0.5 percentage point, the most since 2000, to 8.5 percent. It also told lenders to set aside more money as reserves to curb money supply growth."
Drop in Oil
Bonds gained earlier after crude oil's biggest two-day decline since March eased concern inflation will quicken.
"Oil in New York fell 3.8 percent yesterday, adding to a 2.7 percent loss the day before. The rate of inflation in India, which imports 70 percent of the oil it needs, tripled this year as the commodity jumped 43 percent. Crude oil has declined almost 6 percent from an all-time high of $145.85 per barrel reached on July 3."
"The cost of benchmark interest-rate swaps, derivative contracts used to guard against and gain from rate fluctuations, was little changed. The five-year fixed swap rate that investors must pay in exchange for receiving a floating rate was unchanged at 9.67 percent."
To contact the reporter on this story: Anil Varma in Mumbai at avarma3@bloomberg.net.
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 08:41 EDT"
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"France Stocks Update: CAC 40 Rises 36.53 to 4,312.14 "
By Daniel Hauck
"July 9 (Bloomberg) -- France's benchmark stock index, the CAC 40, rose 0.85 percent at 9:05 a.m."
"The index of 40 companies traded on the Paris Bourse rose 36.53 to 4,312.14. Among the stocks in the index, 36 rose and 4 fell."
"Gains in the CAC 40 were led by Societe Generale, Axa Sa and Bnp Paribas. About 5.00 million shares traded in the CAC 40."
"Last Updated: July 9, 2008 03:05 EDT"
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