inspiration

To get richer work, not harder, but better.

Next week football result forecasts

As I promised, here I'm posting again. My previous posts was produced yesterday, but only posted today due to technicall problems!

(after all these months without posting I forgot my 'secret word' that enable me to post by email. Now I fixed it!)

One of the hobbies I have is trying to predict the future, not by guessing, but using quantitaive data analytics. So, I will use this blog to let you know my predictions. I start today with my quantitative forecasts of next weekend football matches.

You can read the table using the following instructions:
- first column signal games where confidence on prediction is higher with an arrow '=>';
- second and third columns are the home and visitor teams names;
- Fourth column gives the most likely outcomes (1- wins home team, 2- wins visitors team, X- tied game);
- last columns tells you the predicted final score, which should be rounded to integer to make sense, because you will never get 1,5 goals. But a team with 0,8 will have more odds to score than other with only 0.6.

Marítimo - Leixões 1 1.2 - 0.6
P. Ferreira - U. Leiria 1X 1.2 - 1.0
Boavista - Sporting X 1.1 - 1.1
Académica - Sp. Braga 1X 1.1 - 1.1
=> FC Porto - Naval 1 1.9 - 0.4
Belenenses - Nacional 1X 0.9 - 0.6
E. Amadora - V. Guimarães 1X 1.4 - 1.1
V. Setúbal - Benfica 1X 1.4 - 1.2
Freamunde - Santa Clara 1X 1.8 - 1.5
Penafiel - Aves 1X 1.2 - 1.1
Olhanense - Vizela 2X 0.8 - 1.1
Beira-Mar - Gil Vicente 1X 1.2 - 1.1
Estoril - Fátima 1 1.6 - 0.9
Trofense - Portimonense 1 1.3 - 0.4
Varzim - Gondomar 1 1.2 - 0.4
Rio Ave - Feirense 1 1.2 - 0.6
Arsenal - West Ham 1X 1.5 - 1.1
Fulham - Chelsea 2X 1.1 - 1.4
Aston Villa - Tottenham 1X 1.5 - 1.2
=> Liverpool - Wigan 1 2.3 - 0.7
=> Bolton - Derby 1 2.0 - 0.6
Newcastle - Everton 2X 1.4 - 1.4
=> Manchester United - Birmingham 1 2.1 - 0.7
Reading - Portsmouth 2X 1.3 - 1.6
Middlesbrough - Manchester City 1X 1.4 - 1.3
Blackburn - Sunderland 1 1.9 - 1.1
=> Real Madrid - Saragoça 1 2.3 - 0.9
Deportivo - Atlético 2 0.8 - 1.3
Espanyol - Villarreal 1X 1.3 - 1.3
=> Sevilha - Betis 1 1.9 - 0.8
Getafe - Valladolid 1 1.7 - 1.1
Valencia - Levante 1X 1.7 - 1.3
Maiorca - Barcelona 1X 1.4 - 1.3
Murcia - Osasuna 1X 1.1 - 0.8
Recreativo - Almería 1X 1.2 - 0.9
Racing - Athletic 1X 1.3 - 0.8
Lazio - Génova 1X 1.2 - 1.0
Parma - Fiorentina 1X 1.2 - 1.2
Siena - Inter 2 0.9 - 1.4
Empoli - Reggina 1 1.6 - 0.8
Milan - Nápoles 2X 1.2 - 1.2
Torino - Livorno 1X 1.4 - 1.0
Cagliari - Udinese 2X 0.8 - 1.2
Catania - Juventus 1X 1.4 - 1.1
Atalanta - AS Roma 2X 1.3 - 1.4
Sampdoria - Palermo 1 2.0 - 1.3
Schalke 04 - Estugarda 1 1.8 - 1.0
Hansa Rostock - Bayern Munique 2 0.9 - 1.4
Energie Cottbus - Bayer Leverkusen X 1.4 - 1.4
=> Werder Bremen - Bochum 1 2.4 - 1.1
Hamburgo - Hannover 96 1 1.5 - 1.0
Hertha Berlim - Eintracht Frankfurt 1X 1.5 - 1.1
Arminia Bielefeld - Wolfsburgo 1X 1.9 - 1.5
Karlsruhe - Nuremberga 1 1.6 - 1.1
Duisburgo - Borussia Dortmund 1X 1.6 - 1.4
=> Valenciennes - Saint Étienne 1 1.9 - 0.6
Bordéus - Auxerre 1 2.1 - 1.1
Le Mans - Sochaux 1X 1.2 - 0.9
Monaco - Lorient 1X 1.4 - 0.9
Estrasburgo - Nice 1 1.1 - 0.5
Lyon - Toulouse 1 1.8 - 1.0
Paris SG - Lens 2X 1.1 - 1.1
Lille - Metz 1 1.4 - 0.6
Caen - Nancy 1X 1.3 - 1.0
Rennes - Marselha 1X 1.2 - 1.1

I hope you enjoy these results. Off course, you shall remember that these are only predictions and i cannot give any warranty about the results.

I will not accept any responsability about the use of this information, because it's posted here only as a curiosity.

I'm back!

Hello world!
In this time of the year everybody looks backward and evalute what gone well or wrong. Then, its time to look forward and plan the next year.
I'm in the middle of the process. So, i'm respecting the schedulle, as today is the 30th of december 2007. But i already have some ideias about what I wish to perform during the next 12 months.
My first iniciative will be to revigorate this blog, i created in the beggining of 2007, but only updated it 2 or 3 times.
So, during 2008 you shall find here my thoughts about everything, updated daily.
Of course, most os the topics i shall cover will be mainly related to the fields I like more, like economics, financial markets, gadgets, books and arts. All these will be updated daily, in english (or some language similar to english) :)
I expect to produce one interesting blog. I will feel successful if I start have some regular visitors, specially if i get some feedback. My main motivation is to try to exchange ideas with people with similar interests (but with different views/opinions). I will be happy also to get some corrections on my grammar!
The countdown is almost starting! I wish you a happy and successful 2008! With somw luck, it will be the year we start exchange some thoughts about ... Life!
Tomorrow, if not earlier, i' ll be back!

O que se diz hoje de Portugal na Bloomberg.(12/Fev/2007)

 

Portugal's Math Problem: Failing Grades Equal Slower Growth

By Jim Silver

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Chipidea Microelectronica SA, a Lisbon-based semiconductor designer, is hiring most of its engineers in Belgium, Poland and China.

``The reason we opened engineering centers in other countries was to have access to trained personnel we couldn't find in this country,'' Chairman Jose Franca said last month in a speech at an awards ceremony for young scientists and engineers.

The shortage has Portugal hurrying to correct one of the root causes: the disastrous state of math education. Sixty-four percent of ninth-graders failed a standardized math test last year. In 2003, Portugal's math scores ranked ahead of only Greece, Turkey and Mexico in the 30-member Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

That's bad news for Portugal as it attempts to transform its economy from one that relies on low wages to attract employers to one in which educated workers increase productivity. The Bank of Portugal estimates that the economy grew 1.2 percent last year, the slowest in the EU.

``The generation of new firms is very slim in Portugal,'' said Nuno Crato, president of the Portuguese Mathematics Society and a professor at Lisbon's Higher Institute for Economy and Management. ``We don't have enough people trained, enough people knowledgeable in new technologies.''

Math proficiency dropped even as the government almost doubled spending on education to 6.1 billion euros ($7.9 billion) over the past decade. During that period Portugal installed computers in classrooms and reduced the average class size by more than 20 percent.

Training Teachers

The Education Ministry in 2005 increased training for primary-school math teachers and tightened job requirements to prevent those who failed math from teaching it.

In a country where the ministry traditionally keeps tight control over instruction, schools are being allowed to experiment with math curricula to find out what works best. The goal is to force schools to take responsibility for student performance, said Valter Lemos, secretary of state for education.

``We hope this year there will already be some results,'' he said. ``Our goal of getting to the average of the OECD results will take a few years.''

The results from the national test reinforced concerns that Portugal won't be able to catch up with the rest of Europe, after five years in which economic growth lagged behind.

Slowing Growth

Portugal's economy expanded less than 1 percent annually from 2002 through 2005, leaving it the poorest of the 15 countries that made up the EU before its 2005 expansion. In 2002, Portugal ranked 23rd among the 27 countries that are now EU member states in the number of patents granted per person.

``Math provides models of thinking and working that are important in professional life,'' said Joao Pedro da Ponte, chairman of the education department at Lisbon University's Science Faculty. ``It's an area that's important for the economy.''

Chipidea was founded in 1997 by three professors at the Technical University of Lisbon, providing jobs for their students. Now many of its workers come from abroad, Franca said.

Giving workers a better grounding in math would help them become more efficient, Ponte said. Productivity in Portugal was 59 percent of the average for the 15 EU members in 2003, ranking it last, behind Greece, the second-worst, at 75 percent.

Years of failure have had a snowball effect, so that many students now avoid math because they think it is too tough, said Jose da Silva Lopes, chairman of Montepio Geral, Portugal's sixth-biggest bank.

``There are many who go into easier specializations, such as psychology or sociology,'' he said.

`Tough Nut'

Companies are trying to stimulate interest in math.

Banco Espirito Santo SA, Portugal's third-biggest bank, teaches elementary-school students basic concepts about math and money. It also sponsors an annual 10,000-euro prize for an outstanding math teacher, and a national math competition for primary and secondary school students.

Caixa Geral de Depositos SA, Portugal's biggest bank, visited 68 schools last year with a traveling classroom -- a van equipped with Internet-access computers with math-related games.

``Math isn't such a tough nut to crack,'' said Susana Ferreira, a Caixa Geral spokeswoman. ``We want to get young people to think of math as something we deal with in everyday life.''

School Dropouts

Portugal is also battling a tradition in which most people didn't finish high school.

In 2002, only 10 percent of the country's 55- to 64-year- olds had a high school education, the lowest proportion in the OECD. Among 25- to-34-year-olds, the rate was almost 40 percent, still third-worst.

Augusto Pascoal, vice president of the Greater Lisbon Teachers Union and a retired math teacher, said the standard curriculum skips over some of the basics. He said many students can't handle algebra questions with a single unknown, because ``they haven't been prepared with simple questions such as `what times two is six?'''

Teresa Caissotti, a high school math teacher in the Lisbon suburb of Sintra, says media coverage of the test results has focused attention on the issue.

``I think something's changing,'' she said. ``Now it's not just education experts thinking about this issue.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Jim Silver in Lisbon at jsilver@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 11, 2007 19:00 EST

Liderança e Gestão - Cinco lições de ouro

 Lição No.1 - Gestão do Conhecimento

Um homem entra no banho enquanto a sua mulher acaba de sair dele e se enxuga. A campainha da porta toca. Depois de alguns segundos de discussão para ver quem iria atender, a mulher desiste, enrola-se na toalha e desce as escadas. Quando abre a porta, vê o vizinho Bob na soleira. Antes que ela possa dizer qualquer coisa, Bob diz:
- Dou-lhe 800 € se deixar cair essa toalha.
Depois de pensar por alguns segundos, a mulher deixa a toalha cair e fica nua. Bob, então, entrega-lhe os 800 € prometidos e vai-se embora. Confusa, mas excitada com sua sorte, a mulher enrola-se novamente na toalha e volta para o quarto. Quando entra no quarto, o marido grita do chuveiro:
- Quem era?
- Era o Bob, o vizinho da casa ao lado - diz ela.
- Óptimo! Deu-te os 800 € que me estava a dever?

Moral da história:

Se compartilhares informações a tempo podes evitar exposições desnecessárias!!!



Lição No.2 - Chefia e Liderança

Dois funcionários e o gerente de uma empresa saem para almoçar e na rua encontram uma antiga lâmpada a óleo. Esfregam a lâmpada e de dentro dela sai um génio. O génio diz:
- Só posso conceder três desejos, por isso, concederei um a cada um de vós.
- Eu primeiro, eu primeiro - grita um dos funcionários - Queria estar nas Bahamas a pilotar um barco, sem ter nenhuma preocupação na vida!
Puf! E lá se foi.
O outro funcionário  apressa-se a fazer o seu pedido:
- Quero estar no Havaí com o amor da minha vida e um provimento interminável de pinas coladas!
Puf e lá se foi.
- Agora você - diz o génio para o gerente.
- Quero que aqueles dois voltem ao escritório logo depois do almoço - diz o gerente.

Moral da História:

Deixe sempre o seu chefe falar primeiro.



Lição Nº 3 - Zona de Conforto

Um corvo está sentado numa árvore o dia inteiro sem fazer nada. Um pequeno coelho vê o corvo e pergunta:
- Posso sentar-me como tu e não fazer nada o dia inteiro?
O corvo responde:
- Claro, por que não?
O coelho senta-se no chão, debaixo da árvore e relaxa. De repente, uma raposa aparece e come o coelho.

Moral da História:

Para ficares sentado sem fazeres nada deves estar sentado bem no alto.



Lição Nº 4 - Motivação

Em África, todas as manhãs, uma gazela ao acordar, sabe que deve conseguir correr mais do que o leão se se quiser  manter viva.
Todas as manhãs, o leão acorda e sabe que deverá correr mais do que a gazela se não quiser morrer de fome.

Moral da História:

Pouco importa se és gazela ou leão, quando o sol nascer deves começar a correr.



Lição Nº 5 - Criatividade

Um fazendeiro resolve colher alguns frutos da sua propriedade. Pega num balde vazio e segue para o pomar. No caminho, ao passar por uma lagoa, ouve vozes femininas que provavelmente invadiram as suas terras.
Ao aproximar-se lentamente, observa várias raparigas nuas  banhando-se na lagoa. Quando elas se apercebem da sua presença, nadam até à parte mais profunda da lagoa e gritam:
- Nós não vamos sair daqui enquanto não se for embora.
O fazendeiro responde:
- Não vim aqui para vos espreitar, só vim dar de comer aos jacarés !

Moral da História:

É a criatividade que faz a diferença na hora de atingirmos nossos objectivos.