New drugs could spell an end to the world's obesity epidemic | Leaders
The Economist Print edition / 2023-03-02 22:052
A new type of drug is generating excitement among the rich and the beautiful. Just a jab a week, and the weight falls off. Elon Musk swears by it; influencers sing its praises on TikTok; suddenly slimmer Hollywood starlets deny they have taken it. But the latest weight-loss drugs are no mere cosmetic enhancements. Their biggest beneficiaries will be not celebrities in Los Angeles or Miami but billions of ordinary people around the world whose weight has made them unhealthy.

Listen to this story. Enjoy more audio and podcasts on iOS or Android.
Your browser does not support the <audio> element.

Treatments for weight loss have long ranged from the well-meaning and ineffective to the downright dodgy. The new class of drugs, called glp-1 receptor agonists, seems actually to work. Semaglutide, developed by Novo Nordisk, a Danish pharmaceutical firm, has been shown in clinical trials to lead to weight loss of about 15%. It is already being sold under the brand name Wegovy in America, Denmark and Norway and will soon be available in other countries; Ozempic, a lower-dose version, is a diabetes drug that is also being used "off label" for weight loss. A rival glp-1 drug, made by Eli Lilly, an American firm, is due to come on sale later this year and is more effective still. Analysts think the market for glp-1 drugs could reach $150bn by 2031, not far off the market for cancer drugs today. Some think they could become as common as beta blockers or statins.

The drugs could not have arrived at a better time. In 2020 two-fifths of the world's population were overweight or obese. By 2035, says the World Obesity Federation, an ngo, that figure could swell to more than half, with a staggering 4bn people overweight or obese. People everywhere are getting fatter. The populations putting on pounds the fastest are not in the rich West but in countries like Egypt, Mexico and Saudi Arabia.

These trends are alarming because obesity causes a host of health problems, including diabetes, heart disease and high blood pressure, as well as dozens of illnesses such as stroke, gout and various cancers. Carrying extra weight made people more likely to die of covid-19. And then there is the misery that comes from the stigma associated with being fat, which affects children in schools and playgrounds most cruelly of all.

The consequences of obesity for the public purse and the wider economy are large. According to modelling by academics the annual cost to the world economy of excess weight could reach $4trn by 2035 (2.9% of global gdp, up from 2.2% in 2019). That includes both spending on health care and working time lost to illness and premature deaths tied to obesity.

The world's expanding waistlines are not a sign of the moral failure of the billions who are overweight, but the result of biology. The genes that were vital to helping humans survive winters and famine still help the body cling on to its weight today. The superabundance of hard-to-resist processed foods in recent decades has brought greater convenience and lower costs, but also triggered overeating just as lifestyles became more sedentary. Once the fat is on, the body fights any attempt to diet away more than a little of its total weight. Despite the $250bn that consumers around the world spent on dieting and weight loss last year, the battle to get slim was largely being lost.

The new obesity drugs arrived by serendipity, after treatments meant for diabetics were observed to cause weight loss. Semaglutide mimics the release of hormones that stimulate a feeling of fullness and reduce the appetite. They also switch off the powerful urge to eat that lurks inside the brain, waiting to ambush even the keenest dieter.

With the jabs already in high demand, investors are nearly as giddy as newly slim users. The market capitalisation of Novo Nordisk, the firm at the front of the gold rush, has doubled in two years, to $326bn, making it the second-most-valuable listed drugmaker in the world. Analysts expect half of obese Americans who seek help to be on glp-1 drugs by the turn of the decade. But, as with any new medicine that holds so much promise for so many, there are uncertainties. Two big ones will be safety and affordability.

Consider safety first. The newness of these drugs means that their long-term consequences are not yet known. For the lower-dose forms prescribed for diabetes, the side-effects, such as vomiting and diarrhoea, have been mild. But others could crop up as the drugs are used more widely and at higher doses. Animal studies have shown a higher incidence of thyroid cancer, and semaglutide is associated with a rare pancreatitis. Little is known about the effects of using them during or just before pregnancy. All this will require careful analysis through controlled longitudinal studies.

Understanding these risks will be important, because many patients who take the drugs may need them for the rest of their lives. As with ditching a diet, stopping a high dose of semaglutide is associated with much of the lost weight piling back on. Some people even gain more weight than they lost in the first place.

Another preoccupation for policymakers is cost. In America the bill for Wegovy runs at around $1,300 a month; for Ozempic about $900. Judged by such prices, lifelong prescriptions look forbiddingly expensive. The longer view, however, is more encouraging. In time, companies may strike deals with governments and health providers to cover the whole population, ensuring high volumes in return for low prices. The prospect of profits is already luring competition and spurring innovation. Amgen, AstraZeneca and Pfizer are all working on rival drugs; Novo Nordisk has a full pipeline of follow-on drugs. Further ahead still, patents will expire, enabling the development of lower-priced generics.

The shape of things to come
What to do in the meantime? Governments must ensure that those who most need the drugs get them, leaving those taking them for cosmetic purposes to pay out of their own pockets. The long-term effects must be carefully studied. States should keep pressing other anti-obesity measures, such as exercise, healthy eating and better food labelling, which may help prevent people from getting fat in the first place. But spare a moment to celebrate, too. These new drugs mean that the world's fight against flab may eventually be won. ■

For subscribers only: to see how we design each week's cover, sign up to our weekly Cover Story newsletter.

Enviado do meu Galaxy

Business | The world this week
The Economist Print edition / 2023-03-02 22:05

Goldman Sachs held an investors' day, its first in three years, amid grumbling from shareholders about the direction of the bank after a slump in profit last year. David Solomon, its chief executive, raised the possibility of selling parts of its lossmaking consumer services after it has finished scaling back the division. It has become clear "that we lacked certain competitive advantages" in the business, he said. Markets were left unimpressed by the presentation. Goldman's share price fell after the event.

Tesla held its first ever investor day, at which Elon Musk outlined part three of his "Master Plan" for the company. Senior executives also took part and said an electric car for the mass market was in the works, which is essential for Tesla's sales ambitions. But the lack of detail about the new model disappointed investors.

Tesla also confirmed that it is building its first factory in Mexico, in Monterrey. It is the latest carmaker to invest in making electric vehicles in Mexico; in February BMW said it would expand production and build a factory to assemble batteries. Mexico is benefiting from the huge green subsidies in America's Inflation Reduction Act, $34bn of which is earmarked for smoothing the supply chain for EVs.

The euro zone's annual inflation rate remained virtually unchanged in February at 8.5%, though the reading was higher than the 8.2% that economists had expected. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased to 5.6%. Inflation also rose in the currency bloc's two biggest economies, Germany and France, adding to pressure on the European Central Bank to continue raising interest rates.

A measure of factory activity in China grew at its fastest rate in a decade, suggesting that the economy is bouncing back from covid-19 lockdowns and other restrictions. The official purchasing managers' index for manufacturing registered 52.6 for February, up from 50.1 in January (a reading over 50 means manufacturing is growing). The news triggered a rally in Hong Kong's stockmarket.

America's three main stockmarkets declined in February. The S&P 500 was down by 2.6% and the NASDAQ composite by 1.1%. Both indices are still up for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 4.2% in February; it has dropped by over 1% so far this year.

Sorting out the greenwashing
The European Commission announced that an agreement had been reached on its proposed standard for EU green bonds. Companies that want to promote their bonds as climate-friendly will have to ensure that the investments meet strict sustainability requirements. It is not yet clear what the penalties will be if companies' bonds don't meet the new standards.

Sweden's economy shrank by 0.9% in the last three months of 2022 compared with the previous quarter. The country is expected to fall into recession this year as soaring prices and higher interest rates knock consumer spending. House prices are falling sharply. Finland's economy did fall into recession in the fourth quarter, contracting by 0.6% after a 0.1% decline in the third quarter.

An accounting charge on stock-based compensation caused Zoom to report its first quarterly loss since 2018. The video-conference company's revenue grew by just 4%, year on year. A year earlier sales were still growing by 20%.


The share price of Beyond Meat fell back, having rallied after it produced better forecasts for the year than expected. Its stock is up by 38% since the start of 2023, even though revenue fell by 20% in the fourth quarter, year on year, and it made another net loss. Sales for the alternative-meat industry were butchered last year, in part because fake meat hasn't lived up to the hype of being as tasty as the real thing.

Ocado reported another big annual loss. Revenue from its online-groceries business in Britain fell. It had more customers but they put fewer items in their baskets: 46 on average, down from 52 in 2021.

International Airlines Group, the owner of British Airways, made its first annual operating profit since the start of the pandemic: €1.3bn ($1.4bn). Passenger revenue soared to €19.5bn from €5.8bn in 2021. IAG expects profit to climb.

Come fly with me
Cathay Pacific began giving away free return flights to Hong Kong to residents of South-East Asia as part of the city's campaign to lure back tourists after lockdown. The government is making 500,000 tickets available. Cathay is providing 80,000. Hong Kong's main airline has had a turbulent few years, from being ensnared in pro-democracy politics to coming close to collapse amid covid restrictions. But business is taking off again. Cathay flew 1m passengers in January, up by 4,000%, year on year.

Enviado do meu Galaxy

Entire Treasury Market Yields at Least 4%, Now Including 30-Year
Yahoo! Finance: Top Stories / 2023-03-02 17:3022


(Bloomberg) -- The US 30-year yield rose to the highest level since November Thursday, joining the rest of the Treasury market in offering investors a return of at least 4% after another batch of strong labor-market data.

Most Read from Bloomberg

Yields across the Treasury market climbed following an upward revision to the fourth-quarter unit-labor-costs growth rate. The 30-year yield rose as much as 9 basis points to 4.045%, up from a 2023 low of 3.5% in early February, and ended the day at around 4.03%.

While shorter-maturity yields have been spurred higher as traders raised forecasts for the peak Federal Reserve policy rate, longer-dated ones respond more to signs of sticky inflation. A jump in a gauge of US manufacturer prices Wednesday stoked fears that a forthcoming companion report on the services sector will remain buoyant and spark further selling.

"Another firm ISM services number on Friday will see higher yields across the curve," said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. "As a long-duration investor, we are in a tough environment, but we see the backup in yields as an opportunity."

Treasury yields ticked higher earlier in the session along with rates on European bonds after inflation in the euro area slowed less than anticipated in February, while the core measure surged to a new record. The data reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank will have to push borrowing costs ever higher.

The US Treasury market has erased its January gains, which followed its worst year on record, with renewed bearish sentiment also spurred by robust Chinese economic data.

The 10-year note's yield traded above 4% for the first time since November on Wednesday and rose as high as 4.09% on Thursday.

Shorter-maturity yields, more sensitive to the eight increases in the Fed's policy rate over the past year, have exceeded the 4% threshold for varying amounts of time. The two-year yield has traded above that threshold since September and rose to a high of 4.94% on Thursday, a level last seen in July 2007.

The two-year remains the highest-yielding Treasury note or bond, reflecting expectations that the Fed's rate increases are sowing the seeds of an economic slowdown. Consistent with that, swap contracts referencing Fed meeting dates continue to price in roughly 50% odds that the central bank will lower its policy rate by a quarter point from the peak by the end of the year.

The Fed raised its policy rate most recently to a range of 4.5%-4.75% on Feb. 1. Traders expect the central bank will raise policy to a peak of around 5.5%, according to swaps that reference the Fed's September meeting.

With long-end yields now back above 4%, some on Wall Street say levels are appealing to build exposure as the prospect of a hard landing for the economy beckons. Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities, said she would "enter some more longs at 4%" in 10- and 30-year Treasuries, noting TD began recommending that trade when yields rose to 3.8%.

Long-dated yields at 4% "will look really cheap" once the Fed pushes unemployment higher and engineers a hard landing, Misra said on Bloomberg Television Thursday. Investors should still retain "some dry powder to keep adding" to the long end as yields could shoot higher to 4.25% in the near term, she said.

(Updates yield levels.)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Enclosures

0d1ccfaa13664c52f84a84dafb998959

Enviado do meu Galaxy

Enviado do meu Galaxy

The Inverse Jim Cramer ETF Has Officially Arrived
por Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge / 2023-03-02 19:51145
The Inverse Jim Cramer ETF Has Officially Arrived
If you're active in the markets, it's almost a certainty that you've heard a joke about betting on the opposite of whatever non-stop-stock-picker Jim Cramer suggests to retail investors. 

Now, retail investors can do just that. There is a new pair of products coming to market this week called the Inverse Cramer Tracker ETF (ticker SJIM) and the Long Cramer Tracker ETF (LJIM) that will now allow investors to bet against (or with) the Mad Money host. 

The same group that brought you SARK, the inverse ARKK Fund ETF are the ones putting together the ETFs. The funds are the brain-child of Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management. 

"If he specifically says either buy, buy, buy a stock, then we're gonna go short that stock at the next practical moment," he recently told Bloomberg. "If he tells you he hates a stock or sell, sell, sell or something like that, then we're gonna go long that name again at the next kind of practical entry point."

The inverse fund "is an actively managed exchange traded fund that seeks to achieve its investment objective by engaging in transactions designed to perform the opposite of the return of the investments recommended by television personality Jim Cramer," the company said in a prospectus late last year. 


"Under normal circumstances, at least 80% of the Fund's investments is invested in the inverse of securities mentioned by Cramer," it says of its strategy. 

The filing continues:

The Fund's adviser monitors Cramer's stock selection recommendations throughout the trading day as publicly announced on Twitter or his television programs broadcast on CNBC, and sells those recommendations short or enters into derivatives transactions such as futures, options or swaps that produce a negative correlation to those recommendations.

The Fund's portfolio generally is comprised of 20 to 25 equity securities not recommended by Cramer. To the extent possible, the Fund's portfolio is equally weighted. The Fund may invest in securities with any market capitalization and in securities of issuers located in the United States and abroad.

Should Cramer recommend buying any of the securities in the Fund's portfolio, the Fund will dispose of those holdings. Should Cramer recommend selling any of the securities in the Fund's portfolio, the Fund will keep those holdings. If Cramer does not take any view on any of the securities in the Fund's portfolio, the adviser retains discretion to sell positions once profit or loss targets are met, or market conditions such as large swings in either direction necessitate a sale and replace them with securities that meet the criteria of the Fund's initial portfolio. Under normal circumstances, the Fund will hold positions no longer than a week.

As we said back in October, we're sure the new ETF will have no trouble attracting attention and investors. Also, as contrarians, we also can't help but wonder if this public acceptance of Cramer's uncanny ability to get things wrong is finally a reason to start looking at taking him seriously.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/02/2023 - 13:45

Enviado do meu Galaxy

Tesla Master Plan Draws Disappointed Reviews on Twitter
por Ellen Chang

The Street: Stock Market / 2023-03-02 20:1456
CEO Elon Musk provided few details about Tesla's future plans at its annual investor day on March 1.

Investors and owners of Tesla  (TSLA) - Get Free Report appeared disappointed with the company's "master plan" discussing the future of electric vehicles and a sustainable energy economy.

The long-awaited annual investor day on March 1 revealed few details about new models, when the Cybertruck would be produced and if Tesla is moving forward with a cheaper $25,000 model.

DONT MISS: Tesla Unveils New Vehicle Manufacturing Platform to Cut Costs by 50%

The electric vehicle maker said a new vehicle manufacturing platform would enable Tesla to cut costs by 50%, but details were not provided.

The goal is to offer low cost vehicles in order to reach the masses who still shy away from electric vehicles because of the often prohibitive prices.

In response, CEO Elon Musk tweeted, "Detailed whitepaper with calculations & assumptions to be released by Tesla shortly."

But fans and owners of Tesla's vehicles expressed their dismay at the scant details provided by Musk and the EV maker's executives. 

One person, named "Randeep," tweeted, "But why would they do that they got our hopes up so much for investors day most of us were expecting future cars or robo taxis I think even most of the analysts were expecting that that's why they increased the PT too.. this will affect the short run of tsla for sure."

Even long-time fans of Tesla were not impressed with the lack of new information given at investor day. Dmitriy Strunin remarked on the length of the  presentation that lasted four hours. Other companies such as Apple have usually spent only 60 to 90 minutes for their presentations.

"Im not gonna lie you guys need to consolidate the presentation," he tweeted. "Love the company and its people but that was just too drawn out and unnecessary in my opinion. I think it was overwhelming with detail."

Another person with a Twitter account of "NJ Citizen" suggested that Tesla emulate Apple's investor day presentations that are more concise.

The presentation drew the ire of many people, including Mark Pensarn.

"Whoever planned the format and withholding ANY news on the much anticipated new less expensive model , needs to be reprimanded," he tweeted. "This wasn't the exciting upbeat presentation we needed . The Info was Superb but delivery poor . Cost a lot of small investors a LOT !!. PR needed ."

Other people commented on Musk and the delivery of statements on the future of Tesla. Last October, Musk took Twitter, a social media platform, private in a $44 billion acquisition and has devoted much of this time and attention on the deal.

Brianna Wu, executive director of Rebellion Pac, tweeted, "I'm watching @elonmusk speak at the Tesla investor day," she tweeted. "It's so clear the train wreck of Twitter is having a massive psychological effect on him. He's clearly tired. His answers are completely incoherent. There's no vision here. He seems really unhappy."

Some Tesla fans reacted positively to the presentation. Brian Aroniss tweeted, "That is awesome. Great job everyone The stock went down because people were bored, mostly because they didn't understand what was being said, it was over their heads. I am stoked!"

Sybill Hill Carter,commended Tesla on its presentation. 

"Thank you for hours of information!" she tweeted. "As a long Tesla investor I needed to understand. Applaud the team, the upgrades to cut price on the end product and Tesla vision to a cleaner planet is continuous.

Enviado do meu Galaxy

Koch Industries appoints co-CEO from outside namesake family
Financial Times: Markets / 2023-03-02 20:266


Charles Koch, the billionaire who turned Koch Industries from a 300-person oil and ranching business into America's second-largest private company over half a century, has decided to share power with an executive from outside his family.

Dave Robertson, a veteran of nearly 30 years at the Wichita, Kansas-based group, is stepping up from the role of chief operating officer to be co-chief executive along with Charles Koch as part of a reshuffle, which the company said would ensure that it continued to "succeed well into the future". 

Charles Koch, aged 87 and with a fortune estimated by Bloomberg at $67bn, will continue as chair, a role he has held since 1967. His son, Chase, has played an increasingly visible role in the company and is adding the title of executive vice-president to his existing job leading an investment arm called Koch Disruptive Technologies.

"My role and responsibilities will continue as they have been," Charles Koch said in a statement, adding: "I believe altogether these changes will improve our ability to continually transform for the benefit of our company, our employees, our customers and people throughout society."

Koch Industries has 120,000 employees across 60 countries and annual revenues of $125bn, but it has also become well known for the political activism of its controlling family.

Charles and his brother David, who died in 2019, became leading funders of libertarian causes and Republican candidates, enraging many on the left for their backing of conservative judges and support for groups that denied the scientific consensus on climate change.

At the same time, they split from former US president Donald Trump on subjects including trade and gay marriage. Americans for Prosperity, the US donor network Charles Koch leads, recently indicated that it would oppose Trump's bid to secure re-election in 2024.

Koch Industries ranks second only to Cargill in Forbes' revenue-based ranking of private US companies. It remains a significant player in the energy refining and trading industries but has diversified to consumer products such as Brawny paper towels and investments in technologies including batteries for electric vehicles.

Robertson has already run several of Koch's largest operations since joining the company in 1984, including Flint Hills Resources, the refineries and pipelines business, and serves on the boards of subsidiaries including Georgia-Pacific, its paper products group. He will also add the title of vice-chair.

Last year he defended Koch's decision to maintain two glass factories in Russia even as other western companies were leaving the country after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "We will not walk away from our employees there or hand over these manufacturing facilities to the Russian government so it can operate and benefit from them," he said.

Koch later sold its business in Russia, Robertson said last July.

Jim Hannan, an executive vice-president who oversees operations including Georgia-Pacific and the Guardian Industries glass business, will succeed Robertson as the group's president and chief operating officer.

This story has been updated to clarify that Koch Industries has sold its business in Russia

Enviado do meu Galaxy

Ford Has Applied for a Patent That Will Freak Out People Who Miss Car Payments
por Jeffrey Quiggle

The Street: Stock Market / 2023-03-02 20:35

Owners of Ford vehicles could face the reality of a car or truck driving itself away if this patent application is accepted.

Ford Motor Company  (F) - Get Free Report has applied for a patent with a surprising new approach to repossessing vehicles.

It's a surprising, and somewhat dystopian idea.

The patent application involves a method for a car whose owner has missed payments to drive itself to a repo lot.

DON'T MISS: Apple Just Filed a Patent for a Potentially Revolutionary New IPhone 

The application, filed on Aug. 20, 2021 and currently still pending approval, first describes a feature that will lock an owner or lessee out of use of the car.

A message would be sent to an individual regarding delinquency of a payment.

"When an acknowledgment is not received within a reasonable period of time, the first computer may disable a functionality of a component of the vehicle or may place the vehicle in a lockout condition," the application says. 

It then describes a scenario in which the vehicle being repossessed has self-driving capability.

"The vehicle can be an autonomous vehicle and the repossession system computer may cooperate with the vehicle computer to autonomously move the vehicle from the premises of the owner to a location such as, for example, the premises of the repossession agency, the premises of the lending institution, and impound pound, or any other pre-designated location," the application explains.

The patent contains drawings illustrating how computer systems communicating with the car's computer would work.

"Ford files patent for system that could remotely repossess a car," tweeted Ars Technica.

Before taking the ultimate repossession step, other measures might be taken to incentivize the driver of the car to make payments.

"There would be several warnings from the vehicle before the system initiated a formal repossession," The Drive reported. "If these warnings were ignored, the car could begin to lose functionality ahead of a repo. The first lost functions would be minor inconveniences like 'cruise control, automated window controls, automated seat controls, and some components of the infotainment system (radio, global positioning system (GPS), MP3 player, etc.).'

"The next level is more serious, and includes the loss of things like 'the air conditioning system, a remote key fob, and an automated door lock/unlock system.' Likewise, an 'incessant and unpleasant sound' may be turned on 'every time the owner is present in the vehicle,'" according to The Drive. 

Enviado do meu Galaxy

"Havana syndrome" not caused by foreign adversary, U.S. intel finds
Reuters / 2023-03-01 18:0113
2023-03-01T17:43:59Z
An extensive U.S. intelligence community investigation has concluded it was "very unlikely" a foreign adversary was responsible for the "Havana syndrome" ailments that have afflicted U.S. diplomats and intelligence officers worldwide, according to declassified findings released on Wednesday.

The mysterious ailment, first reported among U.S. officials in the Cuban capital in 2016, has afflicted U.S. diplomats, officials and family members overseas. Symptoms have included migraines, nausea, memory lapses and dizziness.

The U.S. intelligence assessment found no credible evidence that any American adversary had a weapon or device capable of causing symptoms consistent with the syndrome.

As part of the investigation, which lasted more than six years, U.S. intelligence agencies considered the possibility that extraterrestrials were responsible for the Havana syndrome but ruled that out, a U.S. official said in a briefing to reporters.

In January, a CIA official said the agency found it was unlikely that Russia or another "foreign actor" caused most of the anomalous health incidents.

That official, describing the conclusions of an interim report on the Havana Syndrome, said a majority of 1,000 cases "can be reasonably explained by medical conditions or environmental and technical factors, including previously undiagnosed illnesses."

Enviado do meu Galaxy

Oil Demand Set To Climb As China's Economy Finally Rebounds
por Tsvetana Paraskova

Oilprice.com / 2023-03-01 18:041


China's economy appears to be leaving behind the early faltering of the reopening, with manufacturing, construction, and export orders rebounding sharply in February, in a sign that the world's top crude importer could soon start seeing a jump in oil demand.

The Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) jumped to 52.6 in February from 50.1 in January, data from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday. The surge in factory activity was the fastest in over a decade—the highest figure since April 2012. 

The index for non-manufacturing sectors, including construction and services, also jumped, signaling an overall expansion of the Chinese economy in February and possibly a faster-than-expected rebound after the reopening from the 'zero-Covid' policies which the country ditched at the end of last year.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, also showed a rebound in February and signaled a return to more normal business conditions. This, in turn, raised business confidence of Chinese manufacturing firms to a 23-month high, S&P Global said.

Analysts warn that the big monthly jump in the Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing indicators could be the result of a low base of comparison in January and pent-up demand following the reopening. Nevertheless, some economists say the return to normal conditions could happen sooner than expected.

Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global oil demand was set to increase by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, pushed up by growth in Chinese consumption after the reopening.

In its closely-watched Oil Market Report, the IEA raised its 2023 global oil demand growth estimate by 100,000 bpd from the previous month's forecast. China's resurgent oil demand – with growth seen at 900,000 bpd this year – and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region will dominate global growth, according to the IEA.

"China accounts for nearly half the 2 mb/d projected increase this year, with neighbouring countries also set to benefit after Beijing ditched its zero-Covid policies," the IEA said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Enviado do meu Galaxy

Hydrogen Cars Could Soon Compete With Electric Vehicles
por Felicity Bradstock

Oilprice.com / 2023-03-01 18:041


The first mass-produced fuel cell car came to market in 2014, but a combination of high costs and a lack of funding means that hydrogen-powered cars have failed to go mainstream.
As the global hydrogen market grows, and particularly as governments pour money into green hydrogen projects, the potential for hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles is growing.
Several of the biggest automakers have now announced new fuel cell developments and have made it clear that hydrogen cars will be a part of their offerings going forward.
While many automakers have been focused on developing battery electric vehicles (BEVs), another green alternative to traditional cars has been gaining momentum – the hydrogen-driven fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). Green hydrogen has been hailed as the clean fuel of the future in recent years, something that many automakers have considered while developing fuel cell cars. While there has been much talk about the rise of the FCEV, most companies are still in the early development stage. But now, some companies are ready to present their FCEV demonstration models to the public to see how they fare in comparison to the EVs on the market. 

Fuel cell electric vehicles work much in the same way as traditional BEVs, running on an electric motor instead of an internal combustion engine (ICE). However, BEVs rely on a battery that needs to be plugged in to recharge, using electricity from the grid. Meanwhile, FCEVs can produce electricity onboard, without the need for charging. This is extremely attractive to car manufacturers looking to increase the range their cars can go without the need to charge, making it easier for consumers to shift from ICE vehicles to green alternatives. 

One of the major benefits of hydrogen is that it emits only water and heat, rather than greenhouse gases, into the atmosphere. With governments and energy firms worldwide pumping funds into green hydrogen projects, automakers are increasingly seeing the potential for cars to run on this clean fuel. To make climate-friendly FCEVs, automakers must ensure that the hydrogen they are sourcing is green, rather than grey – derived from natural gas. At present, the cost of green hydrogen is far higher than carbon-emitting alternatives. But as companies invest more in research and development, the price of green hydrogen is expected to fall, much in the same way as was seen in the cost of wind and solar energy as operations expanded. 

Despite the significant potential of FCEVs running on green hydrogen, the concept of a fuel cell is still relatively unknown in the consumer market. While most people have heard of BEVs by now, particularly since the Tesla boom, automakers have shared little information about the development of an HFCV fleet with consumers. This is likely due to the multitude of hurdles that still need to be overcome before HFCVs hit the market. For example, the size and weight of a fuel cell that can generate enough electricity to run a car or larger vehicle continue to be an issue. 

But some automakers are now taking their innovations to the public, demonstrating that they expect the future of transportation to be broader than just BEVs. In February, Honda announced it would be manufacturing a new hydrogen fuel cell system that it co-developed with GM. This is expected to support the growth of its hydrogen business, with aims of selling 2,000 units of the new system annually by the middle of the decade, and over 60,000 units a year by 2030. Honda expects its "next-generation system" to be more durable than previous fuel cells, and around two-thirds cheaper than existing options. 

Meanwhile, BMW has launched a demonstration fleet of hydrogen cars that use fuel cells from Toyota. Last month, the German automaker unveiled its BMW iX5 Hydrogen, with a top speed of over 112 miles per hour, which is currently being assembled in Munich. The company's CEO believes this is "the missing piece in the jigsaw when it comes to emission-free mobility."

Hydrogen is stored in two tanks, which can be refueled in three to four minutes, just like when pumping petrol. This provides the iX5 with a much greater range than most BEVs, at around 313 miles. BMW is planning for the launch of a small initial fleet in 2023 – fewer than 100 vehicles, mainly to be "employed internationally for demonstration and trial purposes for various target groups." 

In addition to Honda and BMW, Toyota and Hyundai are two other major automakers looking to develop their FCEV capabilities to compete with car manufacturers focusing solely on BEVs. While the technology may be lagging behind that of electric batteries, the potential is significant. 

Toyota has been investing in its fuel cell technology for over 30 years and introduced its first FCEV to the market in 2014, the Mirai sedan. The new version of the Mirai, launched in 2021, provides an extended driving range of around 650 km, and uses green hydrogen, meaning no polluting emissions. And Hyundai outlined its 'FCEV Vision 2030' in 2018, aimed at acceleratingthe development of a hydrogen society. Hyundai hopes to produce 700,000 fuel-cell systems annually by 2030, including 500,000 units for FCEVs, creating 51,000 jobs in the industry. 

While the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has lagged behind battery EVs, greater investment in the industry has supported the innovations needed to get HFCVs to the market. With more and more automakers broadening their vision beyond BEVs and investing in hydrogen, we can expect to see several HFCVs within the next decade, offering an attractive alternative to the battery EV. 

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Enviado do meu Galaxy

3M's stock surges after company says DOD data show 90% of earplug plaintiffs had 'normal' hearing
Yahoo! Finance: Top Stories / 2023-03-01 18:323


Shares of 3M Co. surged Wednesday after the maker of consumer, industrial and healthcare products said the U.S. Department of Defense's records show that the "vast majority" of claimants in litigation over the company's Combat Arms earplugs have normal hearing under medically accepted standards.

The company, which also makes Post-it Notes, N95 masks and Scotch tape, said the DOD data show that almost 90% of the 175,000 plaintiffs in the earplug litigation have "no hearing impairment" under American Medical Association standards.

Under World Health Organization and National Institutes of Health standards, 3M said, the data show that more than 85% of plaintiffs have "normal" hearing.

3M added that for nearly a quarter of the plaintiffs who do have hearing impairment under either AMA or WHO standards, the DOD data show that they reported their condition in hearing tests before they used the Combat Arms earplugs.

The stock MMM, +2.29% rallied 3.5% in midday trading after closing at a five-month low in the previous session. The $3.73 stock-price gain added about 25 points to the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.02%, while the Dow gained 45 points, or 0.1%.

3M has been facing litigation related to the Combat Arms earplugs for the past year, resulting from allegations of "fraudulent misrepresentation and concealment." Some on Wall Street estimated potential liabilities of about $14 billion.

Bryan Aylstock and Chris Seeger, co-lead counsels for the plaintiffs, who are service members and veterans, said in an emailed statement to MarketWatch on Wednesday that 3M's announcement was another attempt by the company to mislead the public. They said the DOD data in fact show that about 85% of the plaintiffs suffer from hearing loss or tinnitus.

"The standards relied upon by 3M in their estimation motion were not even used by their own experts in any of the 16 bellwether trials," Aylstock and Seeger stated. "Of the 13 jury verdicts in favor of plaintiffs totaling nearly $300 million, 11 [plaintiffs] under 3M's scheme would be considered 'unimpaired' — even those who were wearing hearing aids."

In July 2022, 3M said its Aearo Technologies subsidiary, which it acquired in 2008 and which made the earplugs, had voluntarily filed for bankruptcy to help establish a trust as it looked to resolve all claims "determined to be entitled to compensation." 3M has committed $1 billion to the trust and an additional $200 million to fund expenses related to the case and has said it will provide additional funding if required.

In 3M's annual report filed in early February, the company said the bankruptcy and funding of the trust reflected a "change in strategy" for managing the alleged litigation liabilities.

"On February 3, we filed a motion to dismiss 3M's contrived bankruptcy," Aylstock and Seeger said. "3M is a multibillion-dollar corporate enterprise that is not remotely in financial distress, and therefore should not be able to use the bankruptcy system against the service members and veterans it injured."

3M's stock has tumbled 23% over the past 12 months, while the Dow has slipped 1.8%.

Enclosures

b82fba32ec8d0cd498f3020feb182b44

Enviado do meu Galaxy

3M's stock surges after company says DOD data show 90% of earplug plaintiffs had 'normal' hearing
Yahoo! Finance: Top Stories / 2023-03-01 18:323


Shares of 3M Co. surged Wednesday after the maker of consumer, industrial and healthcare products said the U.S. Department of Defense's records show that the "vast majority" of claimants in litigation over the company's Combat Arms earplugs have normal hearing under medically accepted standards.

The company, which also makes Post-it Notes, N95 masks and Scotch tape, said the DOD data show that almost 90% of the 175,000 plaintiffs in the earplug litigation have "no hearing impairment" under American Medical Association standards.

Under World Health Organization and National Institutes of Health standards, 3M said, the data show that more than 85% of plaintiffs have "normal" hearing.

3M added that for nearly a quarter of the plaintiffs who do have hearing impairment under either AMA or WHO standards, the DOD data show that they reported their condition in hearing tests before they used the Combat Arms earplugs.

The stock MMM, +2.29% rallied 3.5% in midday trading after closing at a five-month low in the previous session. The $3.73 stock-price gain added about 25 points to the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.02%, while the Dow gained 45 points, or 0.1%.

3M has been facing litigation related to the Combat Arms earplugs for the past year, resulting from allegations of "fraudulent misrepresentation and concealment." Some on Wall Street estimated potential liabilities of about $14 billion.

Bryan Aylstock and Chris Seeger, co-lead counsels for the plaintiffs, who are service members and veterans, said in an emailed statement to MarketWatch on Wednesday that 3M's announcement was another attempt by the company to mislead the public. They said the DOD data in fact show that about 85% of the plaintiffs suffer from hearing loss or tinnitus.

"The standards relied upon by 3M in their estimation motion were not even used by their own experts in any of the 16 bellwether trials," Aylstock and Seeger stated. "Of the 13 jury verdicts in favor of plaintiffs totaling nearly $300 million, 11 [plaintiffs] under 3M's scheme would be considered 'unimpaired' — even those who were wearing hearing aids."

In July 2022, 3M said its Aearo Technologies subsidiary, which it acquired in 2008 and which made the earplugs, had voluntarily filed for bankruptcy to help establish a trust as it looked to resolve all claims "determined to be entitled to compensation." 3M has committed $1 billion to the trust and an additional $200 million to fund expenses related to the case and has said it will provide additional funding if required.

In 3M's annual report filed in early February, the company said the bankruptcy and funding of the trust reflected a "change in strategy" for managing the alleged litigation liabilities.

"On February 3, we filed a motion to dismiss 3M's contrived bankruptcy," Aylstock and Seeger said. "3M is a multibillion-dollar corporate enterprise that is not remotely in financial distress, and therefore should not be able to use the bankruptcy system against the service members and veterans it injured."

3M's stock has tumbled 23% over the past 12 months, while the Dow has slipped 1.8%.

Enclosures

b82fba32ec8d0cd498f3020feb182b44

Enviado do meu Galaxy

UniCredit plans to increase CEO Orcel's pay by 30%, source says
por Reuters

Investing.com: Stock Market News / 2023-03-01 18:34



© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Andrea Orcel, then UBS chief executive, leaves after attending a UK parliamentary inquiry into Libor interest rates in London January 9, 2013. REUTERS/Olivia Harris/File Photo
By Valentina Za

MILAN (Reuters) -UniCredit will ask shareholders to approve a new pay structure for Chief Executive Andrea Orcel which offers a 30% rise if the Italian bank beats a wide set of targets this year, a document showed on Wednesday.

Orcel's current pay package of up to 7.5 million euros ($8 million) a year makes the former head of investment banking at Swiss lender UBS one of Europe's best paid bank executives.

UniCredit had said its board would review the CEO's pay based on 2022 earnings, noting that European Union rules capping variable compensation at up to twice the fixed salary made it impossible to reward outperformance.

Starting from a higher fixed salary of 3.25 million euros versus 2.5 million previously, the new system ties a higher overall pay of up to 9.75 million euros to the bank's ability to beat targets set for 2023, the document showed, confirming what sources had told Reuters.

But a lower variable component than last year, ensures that in hitting the targets Orcel would get in 2023 the same compensation as in 2022.

The variable component will be paid all in shares and deferred to 2030, UniCredit said.

"The salary increase is not immaterial but it was necessary to create a proper system of incentives in the 'pay-for-performance' spirit driving other changes within the bank," UniCredit said.

Underperformance curtails the pay package more than in the past.

After Spain's Santander (BME:) withdrew its offer to make him CEO, Orcel in Aprile 2021 took the reins of Italy's second-biggest bank, which had been through years of restructuring to clean up its balance sheet and rebuild capital reserves.

A hard-charging executive, he vowed to end an era of "active retrenchment" and went on to de-centralise decision making to speed up the response to clients' needs.

Helped like other lenders by higher interest rates but also able to grow net fees slightly despite tough markets, UniCredit posted its best net profit in a decade in 2022.

UniCredit shares have gained 42% this year, against a 19% rise in Europe's banking index.

Orcel, who forfeited millions of euros in deferred compensation from UBS in joining UniCredit, narrowly dodged a shareholder revolt on his arrival over his pay, which was double that of his predecessor and included a 4.8 million euro sign-on bonus unrelated to performance.

Since then, UniCredit's share price has more than doubled, adding nearly 20 billion euros to the bank's market value and ensuring its return this week into the euro zone's blue-chip index after seven years.

UniCredit has also increased capital distribution to shareholders by 40% in 2022 and is paying out 5.25 billion euros as dividends and, mainly, share buybacks. ($1 = 0.9369 euros)

Enviado do meu Galaxy

UniCredit plans to increase CEO Orcel's pay by 30%, source says
por Reuters

Investing.com: Stock Market News / 2023-03-01 18:34



© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Andrea Orcel, then UBS chief executive, leaves after attending a UK parliamentary inquiry into Libor interest rates in London January 9, 2013. REUTERS/Olivia Harris/File Photo
By Valentina Za

MILAN (Reuters) -UniCredit will ask shareholders to approve a new pay structure for Chief Executive Andrea Orcel which offers a 30% rise if the Italian bank beats a wide set of targets this year, a document showed on Wednesday.

Orcel's current pay package of up to 7.5 million euros ($8 million) a year makes the former head of investment banking at Swiss lender UBS one of Europe's best paid bank executives.

UniCredit had said its board would review the CEO's pay based on 2022 earnings, noting that European Union rules capping variable compensation at up to twice the fixed salary made it impossible to reward outperformance.

Starting from a higher fixed salary of 3.25 million euros versus 2.5 million previously, the new system ties a higher overall pay of up to 9.75 million euros to the bank's ability to beat targets set for 2023, the document showed, confirming what sources had told Reuters.

But a lower variable component than last year, ensures that in hitting the targets Orcel would get in 2023 the same compensation as in 2022.

The variable component will be paid all in shares and deferred to 2030, UniCredit said.

"The salary increase is not immaterial but it was necessary to create a proper system of incentives in the 'pay-for-performance' spirit driving other changes within the bank," UniCredit said.

Underperformance curtails the pay package more than in the past.

After Spain's Santander (BME:) withdrew its offer to make him CEO, Orcel in Aprile 2021 took the reins of Italy's second-biggest bank, which had been through years of restructuring to clean up its balance sheet and rebuild capital reserves.

A hard-charging executive, he vowed to end an era of "active retrenchment" and went on to de-centralise decision making to speed up the response to clients' needs.

Helped like other lenders by higher interest rates but also able to grow net fees slightly despite tough markets, UniCredit posted its best net profit in a decade in 2022.

UniCredit shares have gained 42% this year, against a 19% rise in Europe's banking index.

Orcel, who forfeited millions of euros in deferred compensation from UBS in joining UniCredit, narrowly dodged a shareholder revolt on his arrival over his pay, which was double that of his predecessor and included a 4.8 million euro sign-on bonus unrelated to performance.

Since then, UniCredit's share price has more than doubled, adding nearly 20 billion euros to the bank's market value and ensuring its return this week into the euro zone's blue-chip index after seven years.

UniCredit has also increased capital distribution to shareholders by 40% in 2022 and is paying out 5.25 billion euros as dividends and, mainly, share buybacks. ($1 = 0.9369 euros)

Enviado do meu Galaxy

Covid shrank the restaurant industry. That's not changing anytime soon
CNN.com - Top Stories / 2023-02-27 18:169
It's never been easy to operate a restaurant, and in recent years it's been even harder.

In 2020, Covid restrictions ground the nation's bustling restaurant industry to a halt. Since then, there have been significant signs of a rebound: Dining rooms have reopened and customers have returned to cafes, fine-dining establishments and fast food joints.

But there are fewer US restaurants today than in 2019. It's not clear when —if ever — they're coming back.

Last year, there were about 631,000 restaurants in the United States, according to data from Technomic, a restaurant research firm. That's roughly 72,000 fewer than in 2019, when there were 703,000 restaurants in the country.

That number could fall even further this year, to about 630,000 locations, according to Technomic, which doesn't foresee the number of restaurants in the US returning to pre-Covid levels even by 2026.


Sit-down restaurants, especially, are at a disadvantage as delivery and takeout remain popular. And with inflation still high, some potential customers are avoiding restaurants to save money. Meanwhile, restaurant operators are seeing their own costs, like rent and ingredients, rise, and say it's hard to hire staff.

With conditions so tough, some restaurant owners are advising newcomers to steer clear of the industry altogether.

If someone were to ask David Nayfeld, chef and co-owner of the San Francisco restaurants Che Fico and Che Fico Alimentari, whether to open a new restaurant right now, his answer would be no.

"I would say it is not a good time to go open a restaurant if you are not a seasoned and incredibly durable operator," he said. Especially now, when restaurant operators need experience and deep pockets in order to succeed, he added.

Even Nayfeld, himself an industry veteran who has worked at the famed Eleven Madison Park, is struggling. The pandemic led to "a really devastating few years that we're still working our way out of," he said.

Some have argued that the contraction is a painful but necessary correction.

"The narrative back pre-pandemic was that we were over-saturated … too many restaurants chasing too few consumer dollars," said David Henkes, senior principal at Technomic.


Indeed, before the pandemic, the number of restaurants was growing between half a percent and one percent each year, he said, adding that the recent decline served to "reset" the size of the market. Without those hurdles, however, that decrease would likely have happened more slowly, he noted.

Daniel Jacobs, a chef and restaurant owner, has seen his own network of restaurants shrink over the past few years.

Prior to the pandemic, he and his business partner Dan Van Rite operated three restaurants and a bakery, plus a catering operation and restaurant consulting business. Today, they are left with two Milwaukee restaurants, DanDan and EsterEv.

"Closing a restaurant is an incredibly difficult decision to make," Jacobs said. "We did our best during the pandemic to try and keep our teams together … at some point, you just gotta call it."


The rise of takeout and delivery during the pandemic helped multiple restaurants survive the pandemic.

DanDan, a Chinese American restaurant, had offered takeout for years. The restaurant "had that customer confidence that we were going to deliver quality products," he said.

EsterEv is a tasting-menu-only restaurant within a restaurant (functionally, a dining room located inside DanDan) open only on weekends, and "definitely wouldn't have [made it] if we had to pay rent on a space," Jacobs said.

The trend toward delivery and takeout has stuck, with restaurants reporting higher levels of off-premise orders. According to Revenue Management Solutions, a restaurant consultancy, delivery was up 11.4% in fast food and fast casual restaurants in January compared to last year.

"We increasingly like to get our food on the go," said David Portalatin, food service industry advisor for the NPD Group, a market research firm. "We're still a more home-centric society."

Plus, sit-down restaurants tend to be more expensive, which could drive cash-strapped customers away, said Portalatin. Even with rising grocery prices, eating at home is generally less expensive than dining out, and restaurants last year saw their foot traffic dip.

Full-service restaurants are also more labor intensive. That's a problem right now, as restaurant owners report having a hard time hiring staff.

Job openings in accommodation and food services rose by 409,000 in December, the largest increase by sector for the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in February.

Demand for workers marks a turnaround from early in the pandemic, when restaurants let go of millions of staffers. Some employees also left of their own volition during the pandemic, afraid of getting sick with Covid-19 or tired of dealing with grueling conditions and rude customers.


Today, some of those workers haven't returned, leaving operators struggling to restaff.

"Fundamentally, the labor situation is one where … there's just not enough supply of qualified workers," Henkes said. "And restaurants are particularly vulnerable, because it's never been the industry of choice for a lot of people."

Some restaurants, Henkes said, "are very cognizant that they need to improve the working experience and what they're offering to employees," he said. "But doing that at scale for an industry is very hard."

And, of course, some major employers are not interested in higher wages for workers.

Chipotle, Starbucks, Chick-fil-A, McDonald's and KFC-owner Yum Brands, for example, have each donated $1 million to Save Local Restaurants, a coalition opposing a California law that could set minimum wage up to $22 an hour and codify working conditions for fast-food employees in the state.

Enviado do meu Galaxy

Stellantis invests $155 million in Argentine copper mine
por Reuters

Investing.com: Stock Market News / 2023-02-27 18:24



© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Stellantis, the world's fourth-largest automaker which starts trading in Milan and Paris after Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot maker PSA finalised their merger, is seen on a flag at the main entrance of FCA Mirafiori plant in Turin, Ital
ROME (Reuters) - Carmaker Stellantis said on Monday it had invested $155 million to buy a minority stake in a copper mine in Argentina as part of its global push to secure raw materials for electric vehicle batteries.

The company acquired a 14.2% stake in McEwen Copper, a subsidiary of Canada's McEwen Mining (NYSE:MUX), which owns the Los Azules project in Argentina.

The $155-million investment will make Stellantis the second-largest shareholder in McEwen Copper along with Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), it said in a statement.

Los Azules plans to produce 100,000 tons per year of cathode copper, a key component for car batteries, at 99.9% purity starting in 2027, the carmaker said.

Stellantis, the world's third-largest automotive group by sales, includes Italy's Fiat and Alfa Romeo, France's Peugeot (OTC:PUGOY) and Citroen, and U.S brands Jeep and Ram.

The group wants 100% of its European passenger carsales and 50% of its U.S. passenger car and light-duty trucksales to be battery electric vehicles by 2030.

In recent months, Stellantis has struck a series of accords to procure raw materials for electric batteries, including last month's nickel sulphate supply deal with Finland's Terrafame.

Enviado do meu Galaxy

China's local state is on the verge of a debt crisis
The Economist: Finance and economics / 2023-02-27 18:28144
From several kilometres away China 117 Tower, the world's sixth-tallest skyscraper, is an extraordinary sight—rivalling anything Dubai, Hong Kong or New York has to offer. On closer inspection, however, the building in Tianjin is revealed to be an eyesore of epic proportions. Construction on "117", as locals call it, was never completed. Large sections remain unfinished; patches of the tower's concrete skeleton are exposed to the outside world. Instead of becoming a magnet for business and wealth, it has been repelling prosperity for years. Other derelict towers surround the building, forming a graveyard of a central business district. Local officials would hide the entire area if they could.

Tales of extravagantly wasteful spending have circulated in China for years, as cities and provinces accumulated debts to build infrastructure and boost the country's gdp. These debts have reached extraordinary levels—and the bill is now arriving. Borrowing often sits in local-government-financing vehicles (lgfvs), firms set up by officials to dodge rules which restrict their ability to borrow. These entities' outstanding bonds reached 13.6trn yuan ($2trn), or about 40% of China's corporate-bond market, at the end of last year. Lending through opaque, unofficial channels means, in reality, debts are much higher. An estimate in 2020 suggested a figure of nearly 50trn yuan.

Borrowing on this scale appeared unsustainable even during China's era of rapid growth. But disastrous policymaking has pushed local governments to the brink, and after the rush of reopening the long-term outlook for Chinese growth is lower. The country's zero-covid policy hurt consumption, cut factory output and forced cities and provinces to spend hundreds of billions of yuan on testing and quarantine facilities. Meanwhile, a property crisis last year led to a 50% fall in land sales, on which local governments rely for revenue. Although both problems are now easing—with zero-covid abandoned and property rules loosened—a disastrous chain of events may have been set in motion. About a third of local authorities are struggling to make payments on debts, according to a recent survey. The distress threatens government services, and is already provoking protests. Defaults could bring chaos to China's bond markets.

To make ends meet, local governments have entered costlier and murkier corners of the market. More than half of outstanding lgfv bonds are now unrated, the highest share since 2013, according to Michael Chang of cgs-cimb, a broker. Many lgfvs can no longer issue bonds in China's domestic market or refinance maturing ones. Payouts on bonds exceeded money brought in from new issuances in the final three months of 2022, for the first time in four years. To avoid defaults many are now looking to informal channels of borrowing—often referred to as "hidden debt" because it is difficult for auditors to work out just how much is owed. Interest on these debts is much higher and repayment terms shorter than those in the bond market. Other officials have gone offshore. lgfvs last year issued a record $39.5bn in dollar-denominated bonds, on which many are now paying coupons of more than 7%.


These higher rates have the makings of a crisis. A report by Allen Feng and Logan Wright of Rhodium, a research firm, estimates that 109 local governments out of 319 surveyed are struggling to pay interest on debts, let alone pay down principals. For this group of local authorities, interest accounts for at least 10% of spending, a dangerously high level. In Tianjin, the figure is 30%. The city, home to almost 14m people and on China's prosperous east coast, is a leading candidate to be the default that kicks off a market panic. Although Tianjin neighbours Beijing, its financial situation is akin to places in far-flung western and south-western provinces. At least 1.7m people have left the city since 2019, a scale of outflows that resembles those from rust-belt provinces. Dismal income from land sales can only cover about 20% of the city's short-term lgfv liabilities.

Across China, pressure on local budgets is starting to be felt. On February 23rd a private bus company in the city of Shangqiu, in Henan province, said it would suspend services owing to a lack of government financial support. Several others elsewhere have said the same. Cuts to health-care benefits have prompted protests in cities including Dalian and Wuhan, where they were met with a heavy police presence. Local governments have struggled to pay private firms for covid-related bills such as testing equipment. In places, they are also failing to pay migrant workers, which has led to more protests.

Some local governments have started to sell assets to try to avoid defaults. A recent loosening of rules on stock exchanges could help localities raise capital from the public through listings. Governments could also start hocking assets in private transactions. It is unclear, though, how far officials are willing to go, or who will buy the assets on offer. A new business district in Tianjin appears to have many of the hallmarks of success, for instance—not least several rows of sparkling new towers and a Porsche dealership across the street. But most of the shops on the ground floor of the project, which is jointly owned by a local-government company and a private firm, are empty. Local officials have started to auction off individual floors. One such sale recently ended without a buyer.

The central government is transferring funds to localities on a grander scale than ever before. More than 30trn yuan was made available between 2020 and 2022, according to Messrs Feng and Wright. An lgfv in the city of Zunyi, in the indebted south-western province of Guizhou, recently agreed with local banks to lower interest rates, defer principal payments for ten years and extend the maturity of its debt to 20 years. Such arrangements could become more common in future. Proponents argue that they indicate a genuine willingness on the part of local officials to pay their debts, and are an acknowledgement that it will simply take more time than expected.

But ever-growing debt over the past decade suggests that many projects will never become truly profitable, says Jack Yuan of Moody's, a ratings agency. The troubled lgfv in Zunyi, for instance, has had negative cash flows since 2016, and seems to have little hope of a turnaround. As Rhodium's analysts ask, if these governments could not make payments when local gdp growth was high, often over 7%, how will they manage in the forthcoming decade, with growth of perhaps 3%? ■

Enviado do meu Galaxy

The Role of Immigration in U.S. Labor Market Tightness
por Evgeniya A. Duzhak

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: FRBSF Economic Letter / 2023-02-27 18:3160


Immigration has traditionally provided an important contribution to the U.S. labor force. The flow of immigrants into the United States began to slow in 2017 due to various government policies, then declined further due to border closures in 2020–21 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This decline in immigration has had a notable effect on the share of immigrants in the U.S. labor force. For instance, Peri and Zaiour (2022) estimate that the pandemic led to 2 million fewer foreign working-age people in 2021 relative to the pre-2019 trend. More recent data from November 2022 show a significant pickup in immigration flows, narrowing this shortfall and returning numbers to the pre-pandemic level.

This Economic Letter explores the impact of recent changes to immigration flows on the labor market. I assess the labor market using the vacancy-to-unemployment (V–U) ratio, which is a well-known measure of the degree of labor market tightness, with a higher V–U ratio indicating a tighter labor market (Barnichon and Shapiro 2022). While gradual inflows of immigrants into the United States have historically tended to loosen labor markets, the sharp drop in immigration between 2017 and 2021 helped fuel a strong tightening in labor market conditions. I find that slowing immigration led to a 5.5 percentage point increase in the V–U ratio over this period. Data for 2022 show a strong rebound in immigration that has helped offset tight U.S. labor markets by contributing a 6 percentage point reduction in the V–U ratio.

Labor market tightness and its contributing factors
One way to measure the strength of the labor market is to compare the number of vacant positions employers would like to fill to the number of people looking for jobs. An elevated vacancy-to-unemployment (V–U) ratio indicates a tight labor market in which jobs are plentiful and unemployed workers are scarce.

The V–U ratio can vary for many reasons, such as overall economic activity or changes in technology that result in jobs being automated. In this Letter, I focus on the impact of the size of the labor force, that is, on the supply of workers. In particular, new entrants into the labor force can lower the V–U ratio by either filling open positions or joining the ranks of the unemployed looking for work.

A central force for expanding the labor force is a growing population. This occurs through either natural increases—more domestic births than deaths—or through more immigrants arriving than the number of people leaving the country. U.S. domestic-born population growth has slowed in recent years through low fertility rates and the aging of the baby-boom generation. Figure 1 shows the contributions to annual growth in the U.S. population from natural increases (blue bars) and net international migration (green bars). Net international migration (NIM) accounts for both immigration and emigration between the United States and the rest of the world.

Figure 1
Annual U.S. population change, 2015–22


Source: Author's calculations using national population projections from U.S. Census Bureau.

Recent population growth changed dramatically. Whereas the foreign-born population grew 1.6% per year on average in the decade leading up to 2017, growth slowed to 0.45% per year in 2018 and 2019 before coming to nearly a complete stop in 2020. NIM then picked up in 2021 before a substantial rebound in 2022.

Role of immigration in population and labor force growth
Immigrants contribute to the U.S. economy through the supply of labor as well as through entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs increase the demand for labor by creating job vacancies and therefore increasing labor tightness (Azoulay et al. 2022). However, the primary way recent entrants affect the U.S. labor market is by increasing labor supply, since they are more likely to work than demand labor services.

Much of the pre-COVID decline in immigration can be attributed to immigration policies enacted after January 2017. Over the course of four years, 472 executive actions were aimed at transforming the U.S. immigration system (Bolter, Israel, and Pierce 2022). These actions ranged broadly from increasing immigration enforcement to temporarily freezing refugee admissions and moving away from family immigration through the Reforming American Immigration for Strong Employment (RAISE) Act. Following these immigration policies, NIM fell significantly. Between 2016 and 2019 the number of new permanent residents dropped 13% and the number of student (F1) visas issued declined 23%. Nevertheless, these policies turned out to have a relatively modest impact compared with the border closures used as a pandemic mitigation strategy.

The overall impact of these policies and the pandemic can be seen by comparing the actual working-age foreign-born population and labor force with the level predicted by the average growth trend for 2010–16. Panel A of Figure 2 shows that the growth in the foreign-born working-age population slowed down such that, just before the pandemic, it was about 1.5 million people below what would have been predicted by its trend growth. This gap widened to 2 million people by the end of 2021, a shortfall noted by Peri and Zaiour (2022). Since then, however, immigration has rebounded, nearly closing the population gap with its pre-pandemic trend by the end of 2022.

Figure 2
Foreign-born worker contributions and pre-2017 trends


Source: Current Population Survey (CPS) and author's calculations. Series are calculated as monthly rates using CPS data, with the trends based on growth from January 2010 to December 2016.

To get a better understanding of how these changes have impacted the U.S. labor market, I also look at growth in the number of foreign-born individuals in the labor force, which measures people working or looking for work. I again assess the gap between the actual number of foreign-born individuals in the labor force relative to the level predicted by its 2010–16 trend. Panel B of Figure 2 shows that the overall pattern for the foreign-born labor force relative to its trend is broadly similar to that of the foreign-born working-age population, albeit with an even stronger recovery: the shortfall in the foreign-born labor force closed by the middle of 2022.

Connection between immigration and labor tightness
To explore the impact of immigration on labor markets, I examine variation in the V–U ratio and NIM across states. Most U.S. states have experienced a notable increase in the V–U ratio in recent years. As native-born worker migration rates across states have declined in recent decades (see Kerns-D'Amore, Marshall, and McKenzie 2022), foreign-born workers have been filling gaps in local labor markets. Furthermore, Cadena and Kovak (2016) show that low-skilled immigrants are more likely than native workers to travel to states with higher demand for labor. Similarly, one would expect that foreign-born workers would respond more than native workers to rising labor demand in states that typically attract more immigrants and have an above-average share of foreign-born population.

However, despite tightening labor markets and increased labor demand across the United States between 2017 and 2019, NIM was down in all but six states. In fact, most regions that gained immigrants have relatively low shares of foreign-born population. These states generally do not display a strong change in V–U ratios from changes in immigration flows because immigrants make up a smaller share of their local labor markets. In contrast, states with an above-average concentration of immigrants have a negative relationship between changes in NIM and the V–U ratio, such that the V–U ratio falls as the NIM rises. Therefore, states with a higher proportion of foreign-born workers typically experience stronger labor market tightening after a decline in NIM.

To more precisely estimate the effects of changes in NIM on labor market tightness, I use the differences in immigration rates across states and over time. I estimate the impact of changing NIM flows on labor tightness across states using the annual Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and American Community Survey state data from 2006 to 2021. I measure changes in NIM relative to a state's resident population in 2000. Regression analysis indicates that higher NIM is associated with lower labor tightness. This highlights the effects of both decreasing immigration, where fewer foreign-born workers enter the labor market, and rising emigration of foreign-born workers out of state.

In addition, Figure 3 reports the average contribution of changes in NIM to the tightening in local labor markets. Positive values indicate that, on average, lower NIM increased labor market tightness. Prior to immigration policy changes beginning in 2017, NIM was increasing, thereby lowering the V–U ratio, albeit by a small amount. Slower immigration during 2017–20 contributed to an average increase in V–U. Pandemic-related policies led to an unprecedented drop in NIM at the same time as a sharp decrease in the V–U ratio when many businesses closed. As a result, declines in NIM in 2020 increased the V–U ratio about 5 percentage points, offsetting some of the reduction due to direct pandemic effects on the labor market. Subsequently, a strong immigration surge in 2022 led to an outsized increase in NIM. This helped alleviate some of the labor market tightness: according to regression estimates, the increase in NIM brought the V–U ratio down almost 6 percentage points, somewhat offsetting an overall increase in the ratio in 2022.

Figure 3
Net immigration contributions to changes in V-U ratio


Source: Author's calculations using data from Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau.

However, while variations in NIM impact labor market conditions, their average contributions to changes in the V–U ratio were relatively muted in most years. The exception is 2019, when the decline in NIM accounted for roughly a quarter of the small rise in the V–U ratio. 

Conclusion
Immigration policies enacted after January 2017 contributed to the decline in immigration prior to the sharp drop due to the COVID-19 border closures. Lower net international migration led to a slowdown in the foreign-born population and labor force growth. This contributed to the tightening in the U.S. labor market. Reopening of borders in 2022 and easing of immigration policies brought a sizable immigration rebound, which in turn helped alleviate the shortage of workers relative to job vacancies. The foreign-born labor force grew rapidly in 2022, closing the labor force gap created by the pandemic. This analysis suggests that, if the pickup in immigration flows continues, it could further ease overall labor market tightness, albeit by a modest amount.

Evgeniya A. Duzhak
Regional Policy Economist, Economic Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

References
Azoulay, Pierre, Benjamin F. Jones, J. Daniel Kim, and Javier Miranda. 2022. "Immigration and Entrepreneurship in the United States." American Economic Review: Insights 4(1), pp. 71–88.

Barnichon, Regis, and Adam Shapiro. 2022. "What's the Best Measure of Economic Slack?" FRBSF Economic Letter 2022-04 (February 22).

Bolter, Jessica, Emma Israel, and Sarah Pierce. 2022. Four Years of Profound Change: Immigration Policy during the Trump Presidency. Washington, DC: Migration Policy Institute.

Cadena, Brian C., and Brian K. Kovak. 2016. "Immigrants Equilibrate Local Labor Markets: Evidence from the Great Recession." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 8(1), pp. 257–290.

Kristin Kerns-D'Amore, Joey Marshall, and Brian McKenzie. 2022. "Pandemic Did Not Disrupt Decline in Rate of People Moving." U.S. Census Bureau, America Counts: Stories Behind the Numbers, March 7.

Peri, Giovanni, and Reem Zaiour. 2022. "Labor Shortages and the Immigration Shortfall." EconoFact, January 11.

Opinions expressed in FRBSF Economic Letter do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This publication is edited by Anita Todd and Karen Barnes. Permission to reprint must be obtained in writing.

Enviado do meu Galaxy

20 people who matter in UK tech
por Tom Bristow, Annabelle Dickson, Oscar Williams

POLITICO / 2023-02-26 20:027
LONDON — Who pulls the strings in U.K. tech policy has never been more important.

A raft of upcoming legislation aims to hold tech companies to account while encouraging investment and innovation. But that's a difficult balance to strike and critics fear new rules could hold back some of the U.K.'s most promising industries.

Britain has enjoyed a dominant role in European's tech sector for a decade. But investment in the U.K. fell by 22 percent last year, while rising in rival countries like France.

The sector has been hampered by political instability and uncertainty about what the country's long-term position will be on key areas such as AI, semiconductors, digital competition and content moderation. Meanwhile, the EU has pulled ahead — while the U.K. government keeps promising action "soon," EU lawmakers have already passed or are close to agreeing much of the regulation the U.K. has been talking about.

The people on POLITICO's power list can change that. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's decision to create a new Department of Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) gives key industries a singular focus in government many felt had been missing, though questions remain about exactly what the department will be able to achieve.

Here's who to watch in Westminster in the coming months. We've split our list into rule-makers, enforcers, fighters, advocates, influencers and VCs.

Rule-makers
Michelle Donelan

As secretary of state at the shiny new Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT), Donelan has to be on the inaugural POLITICO U.K. tech power list. She has the potential to be a big player in the world of technology after she was tasked by Sunak with ensuring the U.K. is "the most innovative economy in the world and a science and technology superpower." No pressure. Keep a close eye on her ambitious deputy George Freeman though. It is no secret that he harbors ambitions to make his Cabinet debut.

For those wanting to get into the nitty gritty of some of the biggest tech-facing portfolios, Paul Scully, one of Donelan's ministerial team, will be the man to know having shepherded the Online Safety Bill through its latest House of Commons stages. All three might want to keep a close eye on veteran Tory MP Bill Cash, who deserves a special mention after making Britain's exit from the European Union his life's work, and now has Big Tech in his sights. And don't forget arch-Boris Johnson loyalist Nadine Dorries, who lost her power when the ex-prime minister was ousted from Downing Street, but has strong views on the direction of government policy, particularly on online safety.

Rishi Sunak

OK, an obvious one, but the list wouldn't be complete without him. The prime minister's creation of DSIT at the start of February showed how much he wants government to focus on tech. He is putting millions of taxpayers' pounds into startups, while at the same time giving regulators more power to rein in Big Tech.

The former hedge fund manager has long invested in startups (his investments are now held in a blind trust meaning neither he nor we can see them). He has polished his "tech bro" credentials and seems more comfortable meeting tech billionaires like Bill Gates and answering questions from a chatbot than functioning in the real world of petrol stations, supermarkets and schools. But the extent to which Sunak can deliver his dream of transforming the U.K. into an innovation superpower depends on his political acumen, which will come under intense pressure as the next election approaches.

Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images
Beeban Kidron

Filmmaker-turned-peer Kidron has made her seat in the House of Lords count. Few peers (or indeed MPs) have had quite as big an impact on tech legislation as Kidron, most notably her push for the Digital Economy Act to include an Age Appropriate Design Code, a set of rules that apply to any search engine, social media platform or online marketplace with users in the country. Kidron now has changes to the Online Safety Bill in her sights. Elsewhere in parliament's unelected upper chamber, Tim Clement-Jones is a thoughtful voice on regulating artificial intelligence, and Tina Stowell now chairs the Lords' communications and digital committee — a key vehicle for scrutinizing the tech companies.

Darren Jones

Jones is Labour's go-to on tech policy. As chairman of parliament's business select committee, he made a splash with inquiries into the government's semiconductor strategy (or lack of) and probed plans for the U.K.'s post-Brexit competition policy. A future Labour government would surely call on his expertise. On the Labour frontbench, Alex Davies-Jones, who has the digital brief, is clearly worth knowing too. If the polls stay as they are, she could well be a tech minister before too long. Lucy Powell, as shadow culture secretary since 2021, has been the Labour voice on the Online Safety Bill. Behind the scenes look out for Tom Adeyoola who is playing a role in Labour's startup review.

Susannah Storey

Storey was the first top civil servant to be announced at DSIT. Having moved across from what was then the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS), where she had been director general (DG) for digital and media policy, she now has the DG brief for digital, tech and telecoms. Much of her work will focus on helping to deliver big pieces of legislation including the Digital Markets Competition and Consumer Bill. The department also needs to get the Online Safety Bill over the line.

A regular on panel Q&As, Storey gave an insight into some of her policy thinking to the Open Data Institute in 2021. She said this was the key decade for making tech policy in the U.K. — but time is running out and she is keeping her eye on what other countries are doing. Before joining the civil service, she worked at Citigroup and Schroders in mergers and acquisitions. The other key player in the department is Permanent Secretary Sarah Munby, who moved across from BEIS.

Chief Technology Adviser … Sunak on the hunt

There are plans afoot to recruit a powerful new adviser in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology. A new "chief technology adviser" would be tasked with working with the rest of the civil service to deliver the PM's science and tech vision, according to a Whitehall official.

Over in No. 10 Downing Street, Jean-Andre Prager is the well-regarded and long-serving special adviser who oversees DCMS in the No. 10 Downing Street policy unit, but with the work and pensions brief in his portfolio too. In a sign of just how important No. 10 sees DSIT, a well-placed official said, they are potentially on the hunt for a new tech point person at the heart of government. Don't expect the hire to be someone steeped in politics. "[Tech] isn't that political," the official said.

Over in the Treasury, Adam Memon, Hunt's economic adviser, is seen as an ally in tech land. A short stint on the digital markets unit at the Competition and Markets Authority has given him a valuable understanding of the subject. On the official side the Treasury's director of growth Joanna Key is seen a key player for industry.

Enforcers
Amy Jordan

The director of technology policy at Ofcom has a busy couple of years ahead as the regulator works out how to implement the mammoth Online Safety Bill. The timeline for this has already been moved several times, but Ofcom's latest estimates suggest it will take around two years from the bill becoming law to fully implement the new regulatory regime.

Jordan, an Oxford languages graduate, will be a key part of that work. She has spent most of her career in the civil service, firstly on the fast-track scheme, then working on cybersecurity at the World Economic Forum, before joining Ofcom almost three years ago. In a recent Q&A organized by techUK, she acknowledged the scale of the task Ofcom faces to get the bill working in the real world. The other key name in Ofcom is director for online harms, Richard Wronka. Also watch for Gill Whitehead from April, then she joins as group director of online safety. The former Google executive joins from the Digital Regulation Cooperation Forum where she is CEO.

Jacqui Ward

Chinese ownership of U.K. tech is one of the hottest political topics right now, and as director of Britain's Investment Security Unit, Ward has been tasked with screening and thwarting takeovers which could harm national security. Her unit has just moved into the powerful Cabinet Office after BEIS was broken up. It is just over a year since the National Security and Investment Act came into force and how its powers might be used remains a live issue for industry. While Ward will work behind the scenes, it is National Security Adviser Tim Barrow (remember him?) and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Oliver Dowden, who will be the public faces of potentially contentious decisions about whether takeovers should be blocked.

Sarah Cardell

The head of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has only been in the post for a few months but is already making waves. "Major U.S. tech investors are impressed by Cardell," one industry lobbyist said. "They think she's very smart and wants to make a real impact. They're treading cautiously around tech deals requiring U.K. approval in a way they weren't before."

The Oxford graduate, who like so many in Westminster studied philosophy, politics and economics, has been at the CMA since 2013 and was previously its general counsel. The CMS is has an open investigation running into Google's ad tech and a high-profile case on Microsoft's planned takeover of Activision Blizzard. The CMA is also beefing up its digital markets unit ahead of the Digital Markets Competition and Consumer Bill which will give it new powers.

The fighters
Nick Clegg

Clegg was already a member of Mark Zuckerberg's inner circle before he was promoted last year, but in his new role as Meta's president of global affairs, he is officially as senior as the Facebook founder himself.

Having returned to London last summer, Clegg has a slate of chunky legislative briefs to get stuck into on this side of the Atlantic. His teams will closely monitor the progress of online safety and competition and data protection bills through the U.K. parliament, while gearing up for the Digital Services and Markets Acts in the EU. Clegg's promotion reflects just how significant lobbying has become to Meta, which is facing intense competition from Chinese-owned TikTok as well as investor jitters over its $36bn metaverse bet.

Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images
Dom Hallas

As head of the startup trade body Coadec, Hallas is one of the best-connected people in U.K. tech. He attracted both Sunak and former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng to Coadec events and September's budget included several investor-friendly policy reforms first championed by his team.

But a more recent Treasury intervention has ruffled feathers. Coadec is resisting Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's plans to curb R&D tax cuts. Founders surveyed by the organization in January said the proposals were incentivizing them to speed up overseas expansion plans. The startup association isn't alone in pushing back on the proposals. The Federation of Small Businesses has warned the U.K. will become an "innovation wasteland" if Hunt follows through with the plans. This battle is likely to rage for some time and Hallas is unlikely to back down until he's secured a deal that will satisfy his members.

Neil Ross

Ross is responsible for shaping trade association techUK's approach to new regulation. A former researcher to two Labour MPs, Ross rapidly ascended the trade body's ranks since joining in 2019. Now associate director, he is tasked with finding coherent positions that represent techUK's diverse membership, from the Big Tech firms and software vendors to startups and telecoms operators. That's easier said than done, but when techUK speaks as the voice of the industry, ministers listen.

The protagonists
Poppy Wood

Reset.Tech has quickly but quietly become one of the most influential advocacy groups in the U.K. Launched in 2020 and funded by the Sadler and Omidyar foundations, Reset's British-wing is led by Poppy Wood, a former adviser to David Cameron turned tech policy pro. Wood's mission is to provide a counterweight to the Big Tech lobby and she has built networks connecting MPs and peers to whistle-blowers and former employees of the tech giants.

Wood's primary weapon is the all-party parliamentary group on digital regulation, which Reset manages. The APPG includes many MPs and peers who have brought forward amendments strengthening the Online Safety Bill in recent months. Wood is also expected to keep a close eye on the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Bill and data protection reforms once they arrive in parliament.

Cori Crider

This Texan human rights lawyer first made a name for herself in Whitehall shining a light on the government's work with Palantir during the pandemic. But Foxglove, the advocacy group she runs, has since broadened its focus. Crider's team is fighting Facebook over its treatment of content moderators in Kenya and wants to challenge the government's use of algorithms in benefit fraud investigations. Crider's also planning a parliamentary engagement campaign linked to the new £360m NHS data platform deal Palantir is looking to secure. Sympathetic MPs can expect to hear from her team soon.

Pablo Porciuncula/AFP via Getty Images
Influencers
Ashleigh Ainsley

We're very conscious of the lack of diversity on this list which makes organizations like Colour in Tech even more important. Ashleigh Ainsley, one of its co-founders, can point to some very impressive achievements since launching in 2016. More than 5,000 people have passed through its programs and the non-profit has been backed by the likes of Google, DeepMind, Meta and Microsoft. There's plenty still to do, though — BAME employees represent 15 percent of tech workers in the U.K. against 20 percent of the population.

Gerard Grech

Tech Nation, the organization Grech has led for almost a decade, is closing its doors at the end of March, but its CEO remains a powerful voice in tech. He sits on a DCMS advisory board and has plenty of success getting people to sit up and listen.

The former record company founder built his career in telecoms at Orange in the noughties before being invited by David Cameron to become the founder and CEO of Tech City UK, as it was then, in 2014. The outpouring of support for Tech Nation after it announced its closure has been striking. The organization helped a third of all U.K. tech companies which have scaled and helped thousands of workers through its visa scheme, so watch out for what Grech says and does next.

Gerard Grech (right) | Jeff Spicer/Getty Images for Advertising Week Europe
The money
Nathan Benaich

As founder of Air Street Captial, a small-scale venture capital fund, Benaich is by no means a heavy hitter when it comes to writing checks for startups. But when it comes to politics, he bats above his average. The Cambridge Ph.D grad was on the panel of Labour's recent start-up report; he got name-checked as a reviewer in the recent U.K.'s digital manifesto published by Tony Blair and William Hague; and participated in an off-the-record discussion on Labour's tech strategy in late January between Labour-favoring techies.

Eileen Burbidge

Few VCs successfully straddle the worlds of politics and investment, but Burbidge is one of them. The London-based American founded Passion Captial in 2011 which has backed around 100 early-stage startups, including Monzo. She was awarded an MBE in 2015, is the Treasury's FinTech envoy and was part of David Cameron's Business Advisory Group. Her latest venture is Fertifa, a reproductive health company.

John Phillips/Getty Images for TechCrunch
Saul Klein

Another VC who has been close to government, Klein co-founded Lovefilm — the British version of Netfix — and his current outfits Zinc and LocalGlobe plow money into early stage start-ups. He focuses his investments local to the U.K. and northern Europe. After spending time in California, Klein has become a leading sounding board for repeated governments on what to do about tech and is a cheerleader for how the country (but mostly London) is one of the largest tech ecosystem in the world. He's currently a member of No. 10's Council for Science and Technology after previously being appointed as "Tech Envoy" to Israel under David Cameron's administration and serving as a advisor board member at DCMS. "Government can support this or not support that, but the waves (of technological change) are so much bigger," he told POLITICO.

Noam Galai/Getty Images for TechCrunch
Ilan Gur

With a budget of £800 million to invest in U.K. innovation, look out for the first chief executive of the new Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA). The American is leading the U.K.'s answer to the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) which spawned several groundbreaking technologies. It is one of the most high-profile of former Downing Street top adviser Dominic Cummings' surviving policies. Gur worked at the U.S. Department of Energy's agency for funding innovations, ARPA-E, for three years as a senior adviser so has experience investing public money in emerging tech.

"Aria itself it's a bold bet. The agency is really a grand experiment," he said in a documentary in February. It has been given a lot of public money to "bet on science" so will need to prove its worth fast — but that might be tricky, as its bets probably won't materialize for a decade, so Gur will need to manage government expectations.

Enviado do meu Galaxy