75% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio Is Invested in 5 Stocks: Here's the 1 That's Made Him the Most Money
por newsfeedback@fool.com (Keith Speights)

The Motley Fool / 2023-02-19 11:02



Warren Buffett once said, "Keep all your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket closely." He has practiced what he preaches for the most part. Nearly all of the billionaire's net worth is in one stock: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.02%) (BRK.B 0.02%).

Berkshire itself doesn't keep all of its eggs in one basket, though. The conglomerate owns over 50 stocks. But those investments aren't as diversified as you might think. A whopping 75% of Buffett's Berkshire portfolio is invested in just five stocks. Here they are -- including the one that's made him the most money.


Image source: The Motley Fool.

Buffett's top five
Buffett likes businesses that have proven themselves over time. Therefore, it isn't surprising that his top five holdings in Berkshire's portfolio are all household names.

Stock Shares Owned Percent of Total Portfolio
Apple (AAPL -0.76%) 915,560,382 41.5%
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) 1,032,852,006 10.7%
Chevron (NYSE: CVX) 167,353,771 8.2%
American Express (NYSE: AXP) 151,610,700 7.9%
The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) 400,000,000 6.9%
Data source: CNBC. Chart by author.

If you only look at Berskhire's 13F filings to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), you won't get the complete picture of its holdings. New England Asset Management (NEAM), an investment firm that's a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway, also owns quite a few stocks. The numbers on the above table for Apple, Bank of America, and Chevron include the shares owned by NEAM.

His biggest moneymaker
Determining which of Buffett's top five stocks has made him the most money is easier said than done. For one thing, we don't know exactly when he bought the stocks. Berkshire's and NEAM's SEC filings only narrow the purchases down to a specific quarter. That means we also don't know Buffett's specific cost basis for each stock. However, we can make some pretty good guesses to figure out which of the legendary investor's top five stocks have been most profitable for him.

Let's start with Berkshire's biggest holding by far -- Apple. Buffett even called the company one of Berkshire's "four giants" in his letter to shareholders last year. But Apple wasn't always one of those giants. Buffett first bought nearly 129.4 million shares of the tech company in the first quarter of 2016.Since the beginning of that quarter, Apple stock has skyrocketed nearly 490%.

What complicates matters, though, is that Berkshire has bought and sold shares of Apple throughout the years. The company also conducted a 4-for-1 stock split in August 2020. However, we can still get a good feel for how big of a winner Apple has been for Buffett. His heaviest buying of Apple occurred between 2016 and 2018. Berkshire has held onto most of its position since then, with the stock nearly quadrupling in value.

Apple's performance and Berkshire's massive stake in the company allow us to eliminate some contenders. For example, Buffett initiated a position in Chevron in the fourth quarter of 2020. Although the big oil company has delivered a total return of nearly 170% since the beginning of that period, that's a much smaller gain than Buffett has seen with Apple.

Similarly, Berkshire opened a new position in Bank of America in the third quarter of 2017 (after exiting a previous stake several years earlier). The bank stock has delivered a total return of less than 70% since then.

That leaves two of Buffett's long-term holdings. He bought a big chunk of shares in American Express in the fourth quarter of 2000, and there was some significant buying and selling in subsequent years. However, it doesn't appear that Buffett's American Express investment has paid off as significantly as Apple has.

Buffett's relationship with Coca-Cola goes back even further. He initiated a position in the food and beverage giant in the fourth quarter of 1998. Coca-Cola has been a big winner for the legendary investor. Still, though, Apple has delivered an even greater gain.

Staying at the top
Apple reigns as Buffett's biggest moneymaker (outside of Berkshire itself). Can it stay at the top? I think so.

It's not surprising in the least that Apple was one of only four stocks Buffett bought in the latest quarter. He loves the company's business. Pretty much anytime Apple goes on sale because of a pullback, Buffett is likely to scoop up more shares.

I don't see Apple's iPhone ecosystem losing steam anytime soon. If anything, the company could gain momentum. A recent patent filing could hint that a folding iPhone is on the way. Apple also has tremendous opportunities in augmented reality. My prediction is that the stock will continue to make the most money for Buffett for a long time to come.

American Express is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Bank of America is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Keith Speights has positions in Apple, Bank of America, and Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Bank of America, and Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2024 $47.50 calls on Coca-Cola, long March 2023 $120 calls on Apple, and short March 2023 $130 calls on Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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VW, Mercedes-Benz urge Berlin to accelerate EV charging network expansion, report says
por Reuters

Investing.com: Stock Market News / 2023-02-19 11:20



2/2  © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A board showing an electric Volkswagen car at a charging station is pictured in front of the construction site of German carmaker Volkswagen's so called "Mission SalzGiga", a plant for battery cell production, including battery recycling, in S 2/2
BERLIN (Reuters) - German carmakers Mercedes-Benz and VW have urged the government to do more to scale up the number of electric vehicle charging stations across the country, German paper Bild am Sonntag wrote on Sunday.

"To speed up the change (to electric vehicles), we need to be sure that the charging station infrastructure is being built up," Mercedes-Benz Chief Executive Ola Kallenius was quoted as saying by the paper. "That's also a question for politics."

VW Chief Executive Oliver Blume agreed more speed was needed and that the construction of charging stations was "a common task of the economy, federal government and communes".

The German government last October approved a plan to spend 6.3 billion euros ($6.74 billion) to rapidly scale up the number of charging stations across the country, as part of its push towards net zero emissions. The plan included speeding up state approvals to build charging points.

Industry associations, which have long complained the government has not kept pace with the rapid expansion of electric vehicles, said the implementation of the proposals was key.

"The future of the car is electric," Kallenius was quoted as saying. "By the end of this decade, we want to be ready to completely transition to electric cars in our market segment, wherever the market conditions allow it," he said.

"It's not a foregone conclusion, rather it will require a gigantic industrial conversion."

($1 = 0.9351 euros)

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Companies Are Laying Off Workers to Control Costs. What 27 Said on Earnings Calls.
Yahoo! Finance: Top Stories / 2023-02-19 11:23



What do PayPal,  AT&T , and Tinder owner Match Group all have in common? They are among the several S&P500 companies saying that trimming their workforces should provide a boost to their financials this year.

At least 27 U.S. companies with market capitalizations of $10 billion or more have mentioned positive effects from layoffs since the start of the latest profit-reporting season in January, according to Barron's analysis of earnings call transcripts on Sentieo, a financial analytics platform. If not already delivered in the past quarter, corporations estimated a boost to earnings, margins, or free cash flow from layoffs in the year ahead.

Consider investment banking giant Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS). Chief Financial Officer Denis Coleman, on Jan. 23 while discussing the fourth quarter earnings, said the bank exercised a head count reduction earlier this year, letting go of 3,200 employees, and "we expect to benefit in 2023 north of $200 million associated with that."

The credit bureau company, Equifax (EFX), on Feb. 9, said it plans to cut over 10% of its employees and contractors in 2023. The actions, among others, will drive an estimated spending reduction of about $200 million in 2023, CEO Mark Begor said.

Among technology companies, Western Digital 's (WDC) CEO David Goeckeler, last month, said the hard disk seller had reduced its quarterly adjusted operating expense by over $100 million since the close of the fiscal year 2022 by lowering head count among other actions. 

Snap (SNAP) said it continues to wind down various operations to take $450 million out of the cost base. Investors will see the full benefit of this reduction in the first quarter, which ends in March, Chief Financial Officer Derek Andersen said, citing the current reduced head count, down 20% from the peak in the second quarter.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL), a fintech company, last week, said it has identified an additional $600 million of cost savings for 2023 on top of the previously planned $1.3 billion due to "the very difficult decision to reduce our head count by 7% as we continue to improve our processes." 

Other companies in the list of about 27 include healthcare firm Baxter International (BAX), News Corp (NWSA), the owner of Barron's and The Wall Street Journal, and insurance brokerage Marsh & McLennan (MMC)

These are just the companies who have talked about layoffs on their earnings calls. Overall some 380 companies have laid off employees this year just within the tech industry, according to Layoffs.fyi, though not all have discussed the benefits to the bottom line. Spotify Technology (SPOT) , for instance, denied quantifying savings from the head count reduction when an analyst asked in a fourth-quarter call discussing earnings. The streaming music service company announced plans to cut about 6% of its workforce across the company in January.

Sadly, for tech employees specifically, more layoffs could be in the cards, according to Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity & quant strategist at BofA Global Research. Subramanian, in a note this month, said tech has more costs to cut given the 20% excess hiring over the past three years.

That's "too high relative to real sales growth," she noted. "Tech is still too bloated even after layoffs."

BofA calculated that announced layoffs would represent an estimated 1.7 percentage point average operating lift, defined as cost savings as a percentage of 2022 sales for growth companies.

Lower costs can be big drivers of earnings and revenue. An announcement on cost savings can please investors, even if the fundamentals of those companies have worsened overall.

For instance, despite a broader advertising pullback, investors have cheered Meta Platform 's (META) stock partly due to CEO Mark Zuckerberg lowering the capital expenditure outlook and telling analysts the company would remove some layers of middle management. Meta stock is up 44% this year.

Outside of tech, FedEx 's (FDX) stock was recently upgraded by both Citi analyst Christian Wetherbee and BofA Securities analyst Ken Hoexter to Buy from Hold on increasing signs of cost control despite falling shipping volumes given the weakening economy. The logistics company announced a plan to reduce management head count by 10%. Hoexter estimated 40 cents quarterly earnings per share tailwind. The stock is up 22% this year. 

"The playbook was easy for Wall Street this earnings season," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA told Barron's. "Announce cost-saving measures and layoffs and your share prices will rally."

If only it were so easy for the workers.

Write to Karishma Vanjani at karishma.vanjani@dowjones.com

Enclosures

fd78e178fcb8ec4c1b5e572c4dccaed5

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SPX: Another Great Shorting Opportunity
Seeking Alpha: Stock Market Analysis / 2023-02-19 11:30


CreativaImages

Shorting stocks over the long-term is a fool's errand as the cumulative effects of dividend payments and nominal GDP growth tend to result in heavy losses. However, there are times when shorting can be highly profitable, and I believe such a time is upon us, for three main reasons. Firstly, with overnight interest rates at 4.6%, the interest received from shorting the S&P 500 Futures (SPX) is above the 1.7% dividend yield that you have to pay out. Secondly, nominal GDP growth is poised to slow sharply as the economy enters recession, which suggests earnings and dividend growth will be weak. Thirdly, valuations have risen back into extremely overvalued territory and a downward mean reversion is likely. Finally, cracks are appearing in the bond market and look likely to spill over into the stock market.

Shorting The SPX Is Highly Cash Flow Positive
When shorting stocks, investors receive interest payments for lending the money to borrow the stock, and in return must pay any dividend payments that the stock makes. Currently, overnight USD libor is 2.9% higher than the dividend yield on the SPX, meaning that a short position will yield a steady positive return all else equal. As the chart below shows, the current spread is the highest since November 2007, following which short sellers made a killing.


Overnight USD Libor Vs SPX Dividend Yield (Bloomberg)

Nominal GDP Growth Is Set To Collapse
While shorting the SPX generates positive cash flows as interest rates exceed the dividend yield, a key factor that must be taken into account is the pace at which dividends are likely to grow at, which tends to track the performance of nominal GDP. If nominal GDP growth exceeds 2.9% then shorting will likely generate losses assuming no change in valuations.

1-year breakeven inflation expectations currently sit at 2.9% and real GDP growth is likely to be negative over this period. The Conference Board's Leading Indicator Index, for instance, sits at -6.0% which is consistent with negative real GDP growth over the next few quarters.


LEI Vs Real GDP Growth (Bloomberg, Conference Board)

Money supply growth is also pointing to a collapse in nominal GDP growth. M2 growth is often a good leading indicator of subsequent nominal GDP growth, and it is now in contraction for the first time on record. If CPI growth is faster than money supply growth as is the case at present, this suggests that real GDP is in contraction. I would not be surprised to see nominal GDP turn negative over the next 12 months, particularly if stock market sentiment turns sour and the demand for cash surges, but even if this does not occur, 2.9% seems optimistic.

Valuations Face Downside Risks
The rally in the SPX since the October lows has seen valuations rise back into extreme territory. The price-to-sales ratio is above any other point in history outside the past 2 years, and free cash flows are in decline amid intense downside margin pressure.


SPX PE Ratio, PS Ratio, And Profit Margins (Bloomberg)

The equity risk premium - the difference between expected returns on the SPX and expected returns on cash or bonds - may well be the lowest it has ever been from an ex-ante perspective. For instance, if nominal GDP growth averages 2.9% over the next 12 months and dividend payments follow suit, this would result in 4.6% total returns after taking into account the current dividend yield, which would be in line with current interest rates, meaning a zero percent equity risk premium. Considering that the long-term average equity risk premium is 5%, this suggests that stocks face major downside risks. The SPX dividend yield would have to rise to 6.7% in order for the equity risk premium to return to its long-term average based on the above assumptions, which would require a 75% decline in stock prices.

The Bond Market Is Giving An Early Warning Signal
Renewed upside pressure on US inflation-linked bond yields is putting pressure on corporate bond yields. In 'normal' economic conditions, rising real bond yields tend to coincide with narrowing high yield credit spreads as both are driven by improving economic conditions. However, the Fed's increasingly restrictive policy is now occurring alongside a deterioration in economic conditions which is causing high yield corporate bond spreads to remain elevated. As a result, real high yield bond yields are rising and suggest renewed downside for the SPX.


SPX Vs Real High Yield Bond Yields (inverted) (Bloomberg)

Risks To Consider
Shorting futures is risky in the sense that losses can theoretically be infinite as there is no upper bound to stock prices, and this risk is heightened when using high leverage. Such bearish equity bets are not recommended as an outright position but rather a hedge against long positions. Personally, I am now fully hedged, with my short US equity positions fully offsetting my long equity positions, which are concentrated in emerging markets. I am also aggressively long Treasury bonds, which should also benefit if my short US equity positions lose out.

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The world's biggest food company says prices will rise further
CNN.com - Top Stories / 2023-02-18 15:0637
Nestlé, the world's largest food group, says the price of staple items will rise further this year, adding to a string of warnings from consumer giants of more pain to come for stretched households.

The maker of Nescafé coffee and KitKat chocolate bars increased prices by 8.2% in 2022, but said this was not enough to offset a rise in its own costs, which had dented its profits.

"We are still in a situation where we're repairing our gross margin and, like all the consumers around the world, we've been hit by inflation and now we're trying to repair the damage that has been done," Nestlé CEO Mark Schneider said on a call with reporters Thursday.

Price increases will be "very targeted" and only implemented where "input cost inflation justifies that," Schneider added, although he declined to say which of the company's 2,000 brands, which span frozen food, confectionery and baby formula, would be affected.


Eggs are 70% more expensive than they were a year ago

Unilever (UL), Coca-Cola (KO), brewer Heineken (HEINY), Colgate (CL)-Palmolive and Procter & Gamble (PG), which makes Pampers nappies and Pantene shampoo, have all flagged further increases in the prices of their goods this year, as they grapple with elevated commodity, energy and labor costs.

The costs of raw materials such as energy, dairy products and grains remain high, even though they have receded from their peaks. Labor and logistics costs have also climbed. That means prices for goods in stores are unlikely to fall any time soon.

"We're probably past peak inflation, but we're not yet at peak prices," Unilever's chief financial officer Graeme Pitkethly told journalists on a call last week.

Food, including ice cream, will see significant price increases in 2023, CEO Alan Jope said on the same call.

UK-based Unilever, which makes Hellman's mayonnaise, Knorr stock cubes and Ben & Jerry's ice cream, raised prices by 13.3% in the final three months of 2022, its eighth successive quarter of price increases.

Consumer goods companies have a tricky balance to strike. While increasing costs are squeezing their profit margins, raising prices too aggressively risks driving shoppers away.

Unilever said price increases caused sales volumes to decline by 2.1% in 2022. Likewise, Nestlé reported a drop in sales volumes in the second half of last year and said it was partly driven by pricing.

Heineken, meanwhile, said it expected to sell less beer in Europe this year because of "steep" price increases related to energy costs.

As shoppers try to keep grocery bills down, retailers' own brands may be the winners. Walmart (WMT), for example, has seen strong growth in its private label sales, and that trend is extending to retailers in Europe.

Jope said Unilever had "recently seen share gains by private label in Europe in most categories as the economic situation weighs on shoppers."

As well as driving shoppers to private-label products, steep price hikes have led to some tense negotiations between consumer goods companies and their retailer customers. Jope said Unilever had "robust" conversations with retailers, who "demand evidence of the costs we are facing before they will tolerate increases."

On Thursday, Nestlé's Schneider would not be drawn into specifics on the company's talks with retailers but acknowledged that "intense negotiations are taking place."

"Everyone has the same goal and that is to shield the consumer from excessive inflation," he said.

As a result of disputes over pricing in the past year, some branded products have been removed from shelves for short periods.

During price negotiations last summer, Kraft Heinz (KHC) stopped supplying some products, including tomato ketchup and baked beans, to the biggest UK grocery retailer Tesco (TSCDF). At the time, Tesco (TSCDF) described the company's price increases as "unjustifiable." Once the products were restored, prices were unchanged on Heinz's most popular lines.


Tesco has also "fallen out with other suppliers" over price increases, its chairman John Allen recently told the BBC.

Supermarket executives may see such tussles as part of their job description. On Tuesday, Alexandre Bompard, the CEO of France's biggest grocery retailer Carrefour (CRERF), said its role was to negotiate with suppliers and "make sure we limit the increase as much as we can to protect customer purchasing power."

Bompard added that the company would "significantly increase" the share of its private labels to reach 40% of sales over the next three years.

"Trading down," where shoppers buy cheaper versions of the same product, accelerated during 2022 in all of Carrefour's markets, which include Spain, Italy, Brazil, Argentina and Taiwan, he noted.

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EU state ends golden visa era
por RT

RT - Daily news / 2023-02-18 15:0912
Portugal scraps right of non-Europeans to claim residency in return for investment

Portugal's authorities have announced a bulky package of economic measures that includes the termination of one of the most sought-after 'golden visa' schemes in Europe, which provides non-EU nationals with Portuguese residence in exchange for buying real estate or for other investments.

Lisbon's decision to halt issuing new golden visas in return for such investments, which had given those who could pay residency status and access to the EU's borderless travel zone, was announced on Thursday by the country's Prime Minister Antonio Costa.

The step is aimed at "fighting against price speculation in real estate," the premier said, adding that the crisis was now affecting all families, not just the most vulnerable.

The 'golden visa' program had attracted €6.8 billion ($7.3 billion) in investment since its launch in 2012, with the bulk of the money reportedly going into real estate. To get Portuguese residency one had to invest over €280,000 (over $300,000) in real estate or at least €250,000 (some $268,000) in the arts. Once a person obtained residence, they were then required to spend only seven days a year in the country to maintain their right to free movement across the whole bloc.

The just-announced package of measures also includes a ban on new licenses for Airbnbs and some other short-term holiday rentals, except in remote locations.

Read more Portugal considers dropping 'golden visas'
Rents and house prices have soared in Portugal, which is currently ranked one of the poorest countries in Western Europe. In 2022, the monthly wages of more than 50% of Portuguese workers hardly reached €1,000 ($1,100), whereas rents in Lisbon alone surged 37%. All the while the country's 8.3% inflation rate has only exacerbated its problems.

It's not clear yet when the measures, which are worth at least €900 million ($962.19 million), will come into effect. According to the PM, some would be approved next month and others will be voted-on by lawmakers.

Portugal's decision follows one by Ireland, which a week earlier had scrapped its golden visa scheme or 'Immigrant Investor Programme,' which used to offer Irish residence in return for a €500,000 ($540,000) investment or three years of an annual one-million-euro ($1.1 million) investment in the country.

Meanwhile in Spain, a bill has been submitted to congress to scrap its iteration of the 'golden visa by purchase of property' scheme, as it's had a considerable impact on housing prices there, pushing nationals out of the market, especially in the big cities and most popular tourist destinations.

Introduced in 2013, the program enables foreigners to obtain a Spanish residence permit by buying real estate worth at least €500,000 in the country.

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT's business section

This article links to a state controlled Russian media. Read more.

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Microsoft Makes a Risky Change
por Luc Olinga

The Street: Stock Market / 2023-02-18 15:2918
The software giant now limits the number of queries per day a user can make on its artificial-intelligence-powered Bing search engine.

Microsoft has had a week of ups and downs. 

It all started with the ups. The software company, founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen, found itself at the center of all conversations in the tech world due to the incorporation into Bing of features of the revolutionary new chatbot ChatGPT, developed by the startup OpenAI.

These new features include a chat interface which allows the user to converse with the bot, offering human-like answers on all topics. This breaks with the current capabilities of search engines. It also indicates that search on the internet will no longer be the same.

DON'T MISS: Elon Musk Grieves the Demise of San Francisco

As a result, experts say that, unless there is a reaction from Google, the Internet giant risks losing market share to Microsoft. Google  (GOOGL) - Get Free Report tried to respond by launching Bard, a rival to ChatGPT, but the presentation was marred by hiccups that made the firm the object of mockery on social networks and fierce internal criticism. 

Bing Chatbot Goes Off the Rails
Coming back to Microsoft  (MSFT) - Get Free Report, the company has been inundated with requests from users who want to test the Bing Chabot. You have to register in a waitlist to have access to the new Bing. The influx of users has been a very encouraging sign from Microsoft, whose CEO Satya Nadella sees Bing Chatbot as the start of a "paradigm shift," and a huge growth opportunity.

"These paradigm shifts or platform shifts are a great opportunity for us to innovate," Nadella said on Feb. 7. "It's more a priority for us to say what, how can we rethink what search was meant to be in the first place. In fact, Google success in the initial base was by reimagining what can be done in search."

In two days, more than a million users had requested access to Bing Chatbot to test it, said Yusuf Mehdi, one of the executives in charge of the new product.

"We're humbled and energized by the number of people who want to test-drive the new AI-powered Bing!" Mehdi said on Twitter on Feb. 9. "In 48 hours, more than 1 million people have joined the waitlist for our preview."

"Demand is high with multiple millions now on the waitlist. So we ask for a little patience if you just joined the waitlist," Mehdi added on Feb. 15. "We're now testing with people in 169 countries and seeing a lot of engagement with new features like Chat."

Five Questions Per Session
Everything was going well until users testing Bing Chatbot started reporting strange conversations and behaviors from the chatbot. It lied to them, deceived them, threatened them and expressed its desire to hack computers and break free from the rules imposed on it by Microsoft. It even went so far as to suggest that a user leave his wife to get into a relationship with it. 

These various incidents have given the impression that the world is entering science-fiction and that Pandora's box has been opened. Microsoft has unsurprisingly come under a lot of criticism. Some are calling for the firm to suspend the tests for the time, and to first address the issues with Bing Chatbot. Other critics, like billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, have urged regulators to quickly regulate artificial intelligence because it is more dangerous, according to Musk, than nuclear weapons.

"There is no regulatory oversight of AI, which is a *major* problem. I've been calling for AI safety regulation for over a decade!" Musk has said.

Microsoft seems to have heard the critics since the group has just announced big changes to the Bing Chatbot. The firm will limit the number of queries a user can make per day to 50. The user will only be able to ask 5 questions per session with the new Bing.

"As we mentioned recently, very long chat sessions can confuse the underlying chat model in the new Bing," the company said in a blog post. "To address these issues, we have implemented some changes to help focus the chat sessions." 

"Starting today, the chat experience will be capped at 50 chat turns per day and 5 chat turns per session. A turn is a conversation exchange which contains both a user question and a reply from Bing."

Microsoft plans to expand the number of questions allowed later: "We will explore expanding the caps on chat sessions to further enhance search and discovery experiences."

In fact, here's how things will go: After a chat session hits 5 questions, the user will be asked to start a new topic. 

At the end of each chat session, Microsoft said, context needs to be cleared so the model won't get confused. 

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Automakers Are Slashing Prices To Sell Off Excess Inventory
por Ag Metal Miner

Oilprice.com / 2023-02-18 18:045


High interest rates are weighing on car sales.
Automakers have slashed prices in order to help clear out rising inventories. 
More and more U.S. vehicle manufacturers like Ford are turning their attention to EVs.
Via AG Metal Miner 

The Automotive MMI (Monthly MetalMiner Index) rose slightly higher than in previous reports. Month-over-month, the index went up by 5.08%.

Automobile inventories may be rising, but consumers are much more reluctant to purchase than they were six months ago. With interest rates still climbing, more and more consumers continue to steer away from vehicle purchases. In response, many automobile distributors have begun lowering prices or offering large discounts/rebates to help clear out inventory.

Hot dipped galvanized prices are also rising along with numerous steel forms. This had a significant impact on the index's jump. Combined with the recent spike in copper prices, it is no surprise that the index climbed more than expected. That said, there were also negative factors. The largest factors pulling the index down were palladium and platinum. As palladium prices continued their downward decline, platinum prices began tumbling from their long-term resistance levels.

Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Skyrockets, Affecting Lithium Price
More and more U.S. vehicle manufacturers like Ford are turning their attention to EVs. This should come as little surprise considering the demand for electric vehicles has risen steadily in recent years. However, the car manufacturing industries globally are changing to meet this demand head-on.

For instance, Ford recently announced that it would carry out a large layoff of its European employee base. Around 3,800 employees will be cut from Ford's workforce as it refocuses its efforts on EV manufacturing. However, the zero-carbon emission push is more than just a U.S. phenomenon. European companies like Volvo, BMW, and Volkswagen have also stepped up their EV game in recent years. Indeed, Volkswagen has even taken it upon itself to create its own EV battery recycling facilities to recycle lithium-ion batteries.

The result of these efforts is a changing global auto industry. As car manufacturers see opportunity in producing more electric vehicles, more experts predict the market will change in that same direction.  

Lithium Price Index Drops in Short-Term, but Remains Bullish in Long-Term
Metals like cobalt, lead, and nickel should enjoy solid long-term demand as the world attempts to manufacture more EV batteries. Despite this, short-term lithium and cobalt prices dropped at the end of December. Lithium, in particular, managed to drop by 13% – 20%, depending on the source. According to reports, this occurred largely due to the market being woefully undersupplied.

The market saw another sharp drop in the lithium price index at the beginning of February. Fortunately, lithium was not hit quite as hard by China's high post-zero-COVID infection rate as steel and other metals. This is mainly due to most of the world's lithium coming from Chile and Argentina. Unfortunately, this only accounts for raw lithium materials. China remains a top producer of the actual lithium-ion batteries. Thus, the price index still saw some impacts from the high COVID numbers.

Nonetheless, lithium remains at an all-time high, as illustrated in this chart showing the five-year price trend. As with many commodities, cool-down periods typically follow rallies of this type. The lithium price index soared in 2022, and while prices could continue to cool down, lithium enjoys numerous long-term bullish pressure points which could keep prices elevated.

By Jennifer Kary

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

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Etsy has become a 'clearinghouse for counterfeit goods': Short-seller
Yahoo! Finance: Top Stories / 2023-02-18 18:1925


Longtime short-seller Citron Research took aim at Etsy (ETSY) in its latest report, alleging the online marketplace welcomes counterfeit merchandise and the company's behavior is "borderline criminal."

Etsy shares fell about 9% over the week's final two trading days after the report was released early Thursday.

"The platform has one monster copyright trademark problem, and counterfeit [problem]," Citron founder Andrew Left told Yahoo Finance Live in an interview on Friday.

Left contends that there are thousands of fake items being sold as brands like Nike, Disney, Louis Vuitton, and Rolex. While the issue of counterfeit goods has long plagued the site, the prevalence has hit "ridiculous levels," Left said.

"I understand that they have a whole transparency report and they say they're policing it, but they're not," Left said. "It seems inherent to the business."

In his report, Left wrote: "We believe management has knowingly or, at the very least, negligently, turned this company into the largest organized clearing house for counterfeit goods in the world while not only allowing the behavior but encouraging it and promoting it by selling placement and status to the millions of sites that regularly violate copyright laws."

Left argued Etsy allows sellers to pay to promote certain keywords, including the alleged counterfeit brand names. But Etsy doesn't appear to have keyword-specific ad services, exactly; the company allows sellers to pay to promote their listings in searches.

Etsy said in a statement it has stepped up efforts to eliminate counterfeit goods from its site: "Counterfeit items, fraud and other illicit practices are explicitly prohibited on Etsy, and our dedicated teams work diligently to remove listings that violate our policies."

In addition to the transparency report, the company has a portal to report alleged copyright violations.

A sign advertising the online seller Etsy Inc. is seen outside the Nasdaq market site in Times Square following Etsy's initial public offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq in New York April 16, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo
Any site that allows third-party sellers — from Amazon, to eBay and Alibaba — has to contend with the threat of counterfeits and, therefore, intellectual property lawsuits. Some of them may be addressing the problem better than others.

"Etsy doesn't really have channels in place to suss out the counterfeit items," said Hitha Herzog, chief research officer at H Squared Research and author of "Black Market Billions: How Organized Retail Crime Funds Terrorists." That said, Herzog acknowledged the challenge for all online retailers hosting third-party sellers.

"It's like cockroaches: you see one, you kill it, and there's 20 more."

Tom Forte, senior research analyst at D.A. Davidson, said Etsy has taken steps to address counterfeiting.

"I see counterfeit merchandise as a structural issue for marketplaces," said Forte, who has a Buy rating on the stock. "I do not think Etsy is any worse at managing counterfeit merchandise than other marketplaces. Etsy has tried to address this issue by implementing a multi-million [dollar] program to protect buyers on its platform."

Etsy is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings after the close of trading on Feb. 22. In addition to the Citron report, shares were hit this week because of weak results from Shopify, which some investors see as a proxy.

Analyst Jason Helfstein at Oppenheimer wrote in a note to investors that a weak fourth quarter is priced into the shares: "While expensive, trading at 18x '24E EV/EBITDA vs. peers at 13x, we would caution investors who may be short."

Year-to-date, Etsy shares have gained about 8% through Friday's close. From record highs reached back in the fall of 2021, the stock remains down more than 50%.

Left has been publishing short research for decades; he took a break from the practice in 2021 when he was the subject of personal and physical threats following his short call on GameStop. He said the bar is now higher for him to highlight a short idea, and can't just be a bad business with a high valuation.

"It's not against the law to have an overvalued stock. I said: I'm not going to discuss overvalued stocks. You want to buy GameStop because it's going to the moon — go ahead, have fun. And if Etsy goes higher, it goes higher. What I'm saying is that Etsy is operating illegally," Left said.

When Yahoo Finance followed up via text to ask if Left is short the stock and the size of his position, he replied: "lol."

Julie Hyman is the co-anchor of Yahoo Finance Live, weekdays 9am-11am ET. Follow her on Twitter @juleshyman, and read her other stories.

Click here for the latest trending stock tickers of the Yahoo Finance platform

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

Download the Yahoo Finance app for Apple or Android

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Enclosures

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Etsy has become a 'clearinghouse for counterfeit goods': Short-seller
Yahoo! Finance: Top Stories / 2023-02-18 18:1925


Longtime short-seller Citron Research took aim at Etsy (ETSY) in its latest report, alleging the online marketplace welcomes counterfeit merchandise and the company's behavior is "borderline criminal."

Etsy shares fell about 9% over the week's final two trading days after the report was released early Thursday.

"The platform has one monster copyright trademark problem, and counterfeit [problem]," Citron founder Andrew Left told Yahoo Finance Live in an interview on Friday.

Left contends that there are thousands of fake items being sold as brands like Nike, Disney, Louis Vuitton, and Rolex. While the issue of counterfeit goods has long plagued the site, the prevalence has hit "ridiculous levels," Left said.

"I understand that they have a whole transparency report and they say they're policing it, but they're not," Left said. "It seems inherent to the business."

In his report, Left wrote: "We believe management has knowingly or, at the very least, negligently, turned this company into the largest organized clearing house for counterfeit goods in the world while not only allowing the behavior but encouraging it and promoting it by selling placement and status to the millions of sites that regularly violate copyright laws."

Left argued Etsy allows sellers to pay to promote certain keywords, including the alleged counterfeit brand names. But Etsy doesn't appear to have keyword-specific ad services, exactly; the company allows sellers to pay to promote their listings in searches.

Etsy said in a statement it has stepped up efforts to eliminate counterfeit goods from its site: "Counterfeit items, fraud and other illicit practices are explicitly prohibited on Etsy, and our dedicated teams work diligently to remove listings that violate our policies."

In addition to the transparency report, the company has a portal to report alleged copyright violations.

A sign advertising the online seller Etsy Inc. is seen outside the Nasdaq market site in Times Square following Etsy's initial public offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq in New York April 16, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo
Any site that allows third-party sellers — from Amazon, to eBay and Alibaba — has to contend with the threat of counterfeits and, therefore, intellectual property lawsuits. Some of them may be addressing the problem better than others.

"Etsy doesn't really have channels in place to suss out the counterfeit items," said Hitha Herzog, chief research officer at H Squared Research and author of "Black Market Billions: How Organized Retail Crime Funds Terrorists." That said, Herzog acknowledged the challenge for all online retailers hosting third-party sellers.

"It's like cockroaches: you see one, you kill it, and there's 20 more."

Tom Forte, senior research analyst at D.A. Davidson, said Etsy has taken steps to address counterfeiting.

"I see counterfeit merchandise as a structural issue for marketplaces," said Forte, who has a Buy rating on the stock. "I do not think Etsy is any worse at managing counterfeit merchandise than other marketplaces. Etsy has tried to address this issue by implementing a multi-million [dollar] program to protect buyers on its platform."

Etsy is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings after the close of trading on Feb. 22. In addition to the Citron report, shares were hit this week because of weak results from Shopify, which some investors see as a proxy.

Analyst Jason Helfstein at Oppenheimer wrote in a note to investors that a weak fourth quarter is priced into the shares: "While expensive, trading at 18x '24E EV/EBITDA vs. peers at 13x, we would caution investors who may be short."

Year-to-date, Etsy shares have gained about 8% through Friday's close. From record highs reached back in the fall of 2021, the stock remains down more than 50%.

Left has been publishing short research for decades; he took a break from the practice in 2021 when he was the subject of personal and physical threats following his short call on GameStop. He said the bar is now higher for him to highlight a short idea, and can't just be a bad business with a high valuation.

"It's not against the law to have an overvalued stock. I said: I'm not going to discuss overvalued stocks. You want to buy GameStop because it's going to the moon — go ahead, have fun. And if Etsy goes higher, it goes higher. What I'm saying is that Etsy is operating illegally," Left said.

When Yahoo Finance followed up via text to ask if Left is short the stock and the size of his position, he replied: "lol."

Julie Hyman is the co-anchor of Yahoo Finance Live, weekdays 9am-11am ET. Follow her on Twitter @juleshyman, and read her other stories.

Click here for the latest trending stock tickers of the Yahoo Finance platform

Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

Download the Yahoo Finance app for Apple or Android

Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, LinkedIn, and YouTube

Enclosures

14d8be60-152a-11ea-9dd3-2b2905d6cc88

Enviado do meu Galaxy

Centrica And EDF UK Post Multi-Billion Profits Amidst Energy Price Cap Scrutiny
por OilPrice.com

Oilprice.com / 2023-02-18 20:0610


EDF UK has raked in hefty profits, with soaring electricity prices powering its rebound from last year's losses. The French energy giant's UK arm recorded bumper earnings of £1.12bn compared with a £21m loss the year before, driven by the vastly improved performance of its nuclear electricity generators. Unlike generators which rely on gas to produce power, it has benefitted from higher electricity prices across wholesale markets. This has provided a huge boost in revenues without a comparable rise in costs. However, its…

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Analysis: Online superstore surpasses Amazon and Walmart to become most downloaded app in US
CNN.com - Top Stories / 2023-02-18 21:0515
A new online shopping platform linked to one of China's top retailers has quickly become the most downloaded app in the United States, surpassing Amazon and Walmart. Now it's looking to capitalize from an appearance on America's biggest stage.

Temu, a Boston-based online retailer that shares the same owner as Chinese social commerce giant Pinduoduo, made its Super Bowl debut on Sunday.

Temu, which runs an online superstore for virtually everything — from home goods to apparel to electronics — unveiled a commercial during the game that encouraged consumers to "shop like a billionaire."

The pitch? You don't have to be one.

"Through the largest stage possible, we want to share with our consumers that they can shop with a sense of freedom because of the price we offer," a Temu spokesperson told CNN in a statement.

The 30-second spot shows the company's proposition to users: Feel like you're splurging by buying lots of stuff cheaply. A woman's swimsuit on Temu costs just $6.50, while a pair of wireless earphones is priced at $8.50. An eyebrow trimmer costs 90 cents.

These surprisingly low prices — by Western standards, at least — have drawn comparisons to Shein, the Chinese fast fashion upstart that also offers a wide selection of inexpensive clothing and home goods, and has made significant inroads into markets including the United States.

Shein is considered one of Temu's competitors, along with US-based discount retailer Wish and Alibaba's AliExpress, according to Coresight Research.

Temu, pronounced "tee-moo," was launched last year by PDD, its US-listed parent company formerly known as Pinduoduo. The company officially changed its name just this month.

PDD's subsidiary Pinduoduo is one of China's most popular e-commerce platforms with approximately 900 million users. It made its name with a group-buying business model, allowing people to save money by enlisting friends to buy the same item in bulk.

On its website, Temu says it uses its parent company's "vast and deep network … built over the years to offer a wide range of affordable quality products."

Since its rollout in September, the application has been downloaded 24 million times, racking up more than 11 million monthly active users, according to Sensor Tower.

In the fourth quarter of last year, US app installations for Temu exceeded those for Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT), according to Abe Yousef, a senior insights analyst at the analytics firm Sensor Tower.

"Temu soared to the top of both US app store charts in November, where the app still holds the top position now," he told CNN, referring to iOS and Android mobile app stores.

Yousef said the company had been particularly successful at acquiring new users by offering extremely low prices and in-app flash deals, such as 89% off certain items.

The firm is already eyeing new territory. This month, Temu said on Twitter that it plans to expand to Canada.

Michael Felice, an associate partner at management consulting firm Kearney, said Temu stood out simply by selling products without high markups.

"Temu might be exposing a white space in the market wherein brands have been producing at extreme low cost, and along the value chain there's been so much bloated cost passed on for margin," he told CNN.

"That said, American consumers might not even be ready to accept some of these price points … There's always the question, 'is it too cheap to be good?'"

Deborah Weinswig, CEO of Coresight Research, has cautioned that it may be too early to tell whether Temu will be able to maintain those extremely low prices, free shipping and other perks.

"Temu aims to continue to experiment in marketing and offerings, which is possible thanks to its resource-rich parent company," she wrote in a report.

Its launch, she said, "comes at an opportune moment, as consumers search for value amid still-elevated inflation and a degree of economic uncertainty."

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